Try the model
LIB

Liberty 52 at New Mexico 43

UNM
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:38 · Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:08: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 20 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +12.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:34: Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +24.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:10: Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 4 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Liber 8 (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +13.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:03: Sheriron Jones pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 31 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +12.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:07: Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +21.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 11:27UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52UNM 4th & 17 at UNM 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:25LIB 4th & 1 at UNM 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−0.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:44UNM 4th & 13 at LIB 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:08LIB 4th & 2 at UNM 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%−0.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:48UNM 4th & 1 at LIB 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−1.9
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−7.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:13LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 26, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:49UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:30LIB 4th & 6 at UNM 40, up 32
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:22LIB 4th & 4 at UNM 42, up 26
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:37UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 20, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:49LIB 4th & 5 at UNM 36, up 26
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.3
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:10LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 42, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:46LIB 4th & 1 at UNM 24, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−1.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−5.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:03LIB 4th & 15 at LIB 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:02LIB 4th & 3 at UNM 5, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−4.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:39UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:27LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:03LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:45LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:08LIB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:34LIB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:22LIB Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:21UNM Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:10UNM Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:13UNM Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:26LIB Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:03UNM Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:07UNM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2168% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+22
68.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 22 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
68.4%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 28 yds to the Liber 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
68.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 19 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1231% → 33%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
68.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 33 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
68.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
68.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+37
68.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 37 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
68.4%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 5Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
68.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the NMex 2Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 11 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
68.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
68.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anu Somoye for 5 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
68.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
67.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by B.J. Farrow at the Liber 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
67.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 4 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
67.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+5
67.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 5 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+5
67.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, roughing the kicker (5 Yards) to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
67.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
67.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 7 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
67.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 2 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+5
67.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 55 yds , Marcus Hayes returns for 5 yds to the NMex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
67.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
67.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-10
66.8%
Tevaka Tuioti sacked by Tolen Avery and Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 10 yards to the NMex 10Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 17
OWN 10
+6
66.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 51 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 6 yds to the Liber 16 LIBERTY Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Liber 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2233% → 39%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
66.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
66.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+13
66.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
50
0
65.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
50
+9
66.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 9 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
65.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian King, broken up by Bijon ParkerSimilar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
66.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
65.9%
DJ Stubbs pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 39 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.8%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.4%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
62.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
61.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass intercepted Bejour Wilson return for no gain to the NMex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:3640% → 46%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
60.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (De'John Rogers) to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
60.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 7 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
60.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+7
60.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 7 yds to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
60.2%
Peytton Pickett run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 10Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
53.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 10 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 0:4556% → 55%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.5%
Ahmari Davis run for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
56.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
55.3%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
55.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
54.9%
Ahmari Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+11
54.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 11 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
56.0%
Elijah Lilly run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
55.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Elijah LillySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+2
55.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Ahmari Davis for 2 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
54.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 54 yds, downed at the Liber 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
50.8%
Stephen Calvert run for 1 yd to the Liber 2Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+6
50.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 6 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+1
51.5%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted Stanley Barnwell Jr. return for 1 yd to the Liber 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2352% → 53%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
52.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
52.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the Liber 17Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 9
OPP 17
-6
51.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NMex Tevaka TuiotiSimilar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+38
52.6%
Andrew Shelley 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3647% → 62%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
52.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 47 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
51.2%
Damian King run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
51.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+10
51.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 10 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+20
38.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 20 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:1442% → 41%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
42.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
41.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 9 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+24
42.9%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 24 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
44.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 10 yds to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
45.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the Liber 28Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+7
45.0%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Emmanuel Harris for 7 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
40.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the Liber 20Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 1
OPP 20
-4
40.6%
Zahneer Shuler run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
33.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the Liber 25Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+1
33.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the Liber 26Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
33.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs, broken up by D'Angelo RossSimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
34.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 60 yds, downed at the NMex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
34.9%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 12 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
35.2%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Elijah LillySimilar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
34.9%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 24Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
34.6%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
34.6%
TEAM punt blocked by Corbin Jackson blocked by Corbin JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0011% → 9%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
10.5%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
10.4%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+13
10.4%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 13 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
10.4%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IV, broken up by Corbin JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
10.2%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 3 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
9.3%
Sheriron Jones pass intercepted Elijah Benton return for no gain to the Liber 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 0:2189% → 92%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
10.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 39 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
10.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
8.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 24 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19END OF HALF
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
7.4%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+20
7.0%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Emmanuel Harris for 20 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 3:3091% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
8.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 8 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
8.8%
Zac Foutz run for 1 yd to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
8.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 8 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
8.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
8.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
8.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 11 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
8.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs, broken up by Stanley Barnwell Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
8.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 4 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
8.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
5.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:016% → 5%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
6.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-5
5.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Tyrone Owens) to the NMex 21Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+79
4.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Patrick Reed for 79 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:5394% → 95%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
5.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+12
5.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 12 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
5.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
4.4%
Mason Cunningham pass complete to Zac Foutz for 6 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
4.4%
Mason Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
4.9%
Aidan Alves punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Marcus Hayes at the NMex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
4.1%
Sheriron Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
4.0%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Elijah LillySimilar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
4.0%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Elijah LillySimilar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+25
4.0%
Tyson Dyer punt for 46 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 25 yds to the NMex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
3.5%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive holding (DJ Stubbs) to the Liber 49Similar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 20
OWN 49
0
3.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs, broken up by Bijon ParkerSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 20
OWN 49
0
3.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Zac FoutzSimilar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 20
OWN 49
+15
3.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 15 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
4.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:203% → 18%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
3.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
3.4%
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
3.4%
Tyrone Owens run for 17 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
3.6%
Sheriron Jones run for 8 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-1
3.7%
Ahmari Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+3
3.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+31
3.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Anu Somoye for 31 yds to the Liber 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
4.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the Liber 4Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
17.9%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 4 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Liber 8 (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
6.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
7.0%
Mason Cunningham pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 10 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
6.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
6.6%
Mason Cunningham pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Jalin BurrellSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
6.7%
Mason Cunningham pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Bijon ParkerSimilar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+14
7.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 44 yds , Marcus Hayes returns for 14 yds to the NMex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 27TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:4712% → 23%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
12.0%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 18 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+44
12.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 44 yds to the Liber 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
14.4%
Sheriron Jones run for 3 yds to the Liber 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
12.9%
Sheriron Jones run for no gain to the Liber 7Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
22.9%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 28TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4783% → 97%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
17.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 26 yds to the NEWMEXICO 49 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, roughing passer (Stanley Barnwell Jr.) to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
15.4%
Peytton Pickett run for 4 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
14.8%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+24
15.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 24 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.8%
Peytton Pickett run for 4 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 29INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
3.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+20
3.8%
Sheriron Jones pass intercepted Isaac Steele return for 20 yds to the NMex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 30DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
2.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
2.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+9
2.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 9 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
2.5%
Peytton Pickett run for 7 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
2.5%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
2.6%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 1
OPP 24
-3
2.9%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 31TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:453% → 15%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
2.6%
Elijah Lilly run for 25 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
2.9%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 7 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+10
3.1%
LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive holding (Isaac Steele) to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
15.4%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 31 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
7.6%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the Liber 28Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
8.1%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Rhashaun Epting for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 20Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+7
8.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 45 , Marcus Hayes returns for 7 yds to the Liber 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 33TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:0610% → 34%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
9.7%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Emmanuel HarrisSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
9.4%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 12 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
12.1%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 24 yds to the Liber 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
12.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the Liber 3Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 34FG
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0580% → 97%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
20.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 9 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
19.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
19.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
18.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+50
18.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 50 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
15.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
6.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+2
6.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the NMex 5Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
3.3%
Aaron Peart 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 35INT
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+32
3.8%
Sheriron Jones run for 32 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
5.5%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Marcus Williams, broken up by Brandon TillmonSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
5.3%
Sheriron Jones pass intercepted Isaac Steele return for no gain to the Liber 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 36END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
3.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:34
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)
-24.4
TD · Q4 5:07
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)
+21.3
TD · Q3 3:10
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 4 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Liber 8 (Andrew Shelley KICK)
+13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com