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UNT

North Texas 47 at Liberty 7

LIB
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:11 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:41: Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +2.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:30: Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 4 yds for a TD, (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +7.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:12: Mason Fine run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +6.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:09: Loren Easly run for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund PAT MISSED) — UNT win probability +8.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:34: Loren Easly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNT win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07LIB 4th & 21 at LIB 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:59UNT 4th & 1 at LIB 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:41LIB 4th & 6 at UNT 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:47UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:42UNT 4th & 2 at LIB 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:30UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:43LIB 4th & 12 at LIB 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:54UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:00LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54UNT 4th & 6 at LIB 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:30LIB 4th & 11 at UNT 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:00LIB 4th & 15 at midfield, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:22LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 12, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:27LIB 4th & 14 at UNT 34, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:21LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 38, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:07UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:41UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:30LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:12UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:09UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:34UNT Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:32UNT Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:21UNT Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
21.5%
Kentory Matthews run for 13 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
21.5%
Kentory Matthews run for 6 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
21.5%
Kentory Matthews run for 3 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
21.5%
Kentory Matthews run for 1 yd to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
21.5%
Stephen Calvert run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 44 Stephen Calvert fumbled, recovered by Liber Stephen CalvertSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+5
21.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
21.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+21
21.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 26 yds, downed at the LIBERTY 25 LIBERTY Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2477% → 78%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
22.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Loren Easly for 4 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+18
22.6%
Loren Easly run for 18 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
22.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 17 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
22.5%
Loren Easly run for 19 yds to the Liber 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
22.5%
Loren Easly run for 6 yds to the Liber 6Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
22.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 6 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.7%
Kentory Matthews run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
22.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 7 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
22.8%
Kentory Matthews run for 4 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
22.8%
Kentory Matthews run for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 15
OWN 33
-6
22.7%
Damian King run for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 21
OWN 27
0
22.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 21
OWN 27
0
22.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:5578% → 80%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
22.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 11 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
22.4%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
22.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+7
22.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 7 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+5
22.7%
Loren Easly run for 5 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
22.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Bejour WilsonSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-1
22.3%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 22Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+22
20.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
20.9%
Kentory Matthews run for 15 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
21.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 21 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
21.5%
DJ Stubbs pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Kemon HallSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
21.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+4
21.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 4 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
21.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. Farrow, broken up by Taylor RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
19.9%
Loren Easly run for 5 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
19.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
19.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
20.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7INT
16 plays · 72 yds · 2:0620% → 21%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
20.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 9 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-5
20.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (Thomas Sargeant) to the Liber 24Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
20.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Kemon HallSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+16
20.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 16 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-9
20.7%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Brandon Garner for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 19
OWN 31
+24
20.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 24 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
20.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
20.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
20.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 5 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
21.1%
CALVERT, S. middle pass incomplete to LEWIS, M., PENALTY UNT holding (MUHAMMAD, K.) 10 yards to the UNT24, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
21.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
21.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
20.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+5
20.7%
CALVERT, S. sideline pass incomplete to GANDY-GOLDEN,A., PENALTY UNT offside defense (HAMILTON, L.) 5 yards to the UNT12, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
21.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+21
21.1%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted Khairi Muhammad return for 21 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
19.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 3 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
19.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 8 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
18.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 12 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
18.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 9 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+4
18.4%
Loren Easly run for 4 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
18.5%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
18.5%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the Liber 37Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+4
18.6%
Loren Easly run for 4 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
19.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:0918% → 27%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
18.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (Ethan Crawford) to the Liber 28Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+30
18.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 30 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+37
19.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 37 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
19.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 4 yds for a TD, (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
23.0%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
22.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
22.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael Lawrence, broken up by Brandon TillmonSimilar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
23.7%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
24.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 10 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
24.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 35Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+15
24.4%
CALVERT, S. deep pass incomplete to GANDY-GOLDEN,A., QB hurry by HAMILTON, L., PENALTY UNT roughing passer (HAMILTON, L.) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
50
-2
26.3%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 48Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
25.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
24.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
23.6%
Aidan Alves punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
23.2%
Loren Easly run for 6 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
22.5%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
22.6%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
22.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 44Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-7
22.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Jessie Lemonier and Juwan Wells for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 16
OWN 37
0
24.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Bejour WilsonSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
25.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 44 yds, downed at the Liber 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
24.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
24.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
23.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
23.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 40 yds, downed at the NoTex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 1:2079% → 86%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+43
21.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 43 yds to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
20.1%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 17Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+8
21.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 8 yds to the Liber 9Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+7
21.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Loren Easly for 7 yds to the Liber 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
21.0%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 4Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
14.2%
Mason Fine run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
16.3%
Loren Easly run for 8 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+9
16.0%
Loren Easly run for 9 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
15.5%
Loren Easly run for 7 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+3
15.3%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
15.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
15.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
15.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for no gain Kelvin Smith fumbled, forced by Jeremy Peters,Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
16.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by B.J. Farrow at the Liber 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17MISSED FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:0816% → 15%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
15.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+2
15.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+10
15.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 10 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
16.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 35Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+9
16.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 9 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
16.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 11 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-9
16.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 46Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 19
OWN 46
+15
15.5%
CALVERT, S. deep pass incomplete to KING, Dam., QB hurry by HAMILTON, L., PENALTY UNT pass interference (MUHAMMAD, K.) 15 yards to the UNT39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+25
17.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 25 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
17.6%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 15Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
17.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. Farrow, broken up by Kemon HallSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
16.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
15.1%
Aaron Peart 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:2187% → 97%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
12.8%
Loren Easly run for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+17
12.7%
Loren Easly run for 17 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
11.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 9 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+24
11.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 24 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
11.5%
Loren Easly run for 15 yds to the Liber 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
3.3%
Loren Easly run for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
7.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 4
50
0
7.6%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 4
50
+5
7.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 5 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
7.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-11
7.9%
Peytton Pickett run for 4 yds to the Liber 35 LIBERTY Penalty, illegal block (Tristan Schultz) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 15
50
+9
6.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 9 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-9
7.6%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Jamie King for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 15
50
0
6.8%
TEAM punt for a loss of 4 yards, downed at the Liber 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:1697% → 99%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
2.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 47Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
2.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+20
2.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 20 yds to the Liber 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+25
2.5%
Loren Easly run for 25 yds to the Liber 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
2.5%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 3Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.7%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:061% → 0%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
1.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 17
-5
1.2%
Stephen Calvert sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
0.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
0.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:3899% → 100%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
0.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+8
0.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 8 yds to the Liber 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
0.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 9 yds to the Liber 1Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 41 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
0.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
0.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 11 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 4 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
0.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+10
0.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 10 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
0.3%
Peytton Pickett run for 12 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
0.1%
Peytton Pickett run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
0.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 14
OPP 34
0
0.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 14
OPP 34
0
0.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:21100% → 100%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Bejour WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+66
0.2%
Nic Smith run for 66 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
0.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 12 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
0.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the Liber 38Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. Farrow, broken up by Brandon GarnerSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 34 yds, downed at the NoTex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 54 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
0.2%
Quinn Shanbour run for 7 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+9
0.2%
Quinn Shanbour run for 9 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
0.2%
Quinn Shanbour run for 8 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+5
0.1%
Anthony Wyche run for 5 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
0.1%
Anthony Wyche run for 4 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+17
0.1%
Anthony Wyche run for 17 yds to the Liber 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
0.1%
Quinn Shanbour run for 5 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:09
Loren Easly run for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund PAT MISSED)
-8.2
TD · Q2 7:30
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 4 yds for a TD, (Aaron Peart KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q2 0:12
Mason Fine run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com