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NMSU

New Mexico State 21 at Liberty 28

LIB
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:59 · Josh Adkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Home team on offense+2.9Pregame prior+9.6Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Time remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:09: Josh Adkins pass intercepted for a TD Solomon Ajayi return for 26 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +4.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:52: Alex Probert kickoff for 65 yds , Jason Huntley return for 85 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:37: Stephen Calvert pass intercepted for a TD Javahn Fergurson return for 37 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:26: Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 31 yds for a TD (Stephen Calvert pass to B.J. Farrow for Two-Point Conversion) — LIB win probability +10.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:46: Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 11NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:55NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:54LIB 4th & 4 at NMSU 8, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:52LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:59NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:59NMSU 4th & 6 at LIB 27, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:59NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 31, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:21LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:52NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:06LIB 4th & 8 at NMSU 34, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:59NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.8%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:54NMSU 4th & 1 at LIB 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−6.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:32LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:14NMSU 4th & 3 at LIB 44, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−2.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:49LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:18NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 3 at LIB 49, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:18LIB 4th & 16 at LIB 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:35NMSU 4th & 5 at LIB 20, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−5.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:03LIB 4th & 1 at NMSU 47, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−1.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:45NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−0.6
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:43LIB 4th & 14 at LIB 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:46NMSU 4th & 4 at LIB 4, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:27LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:09LIB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:37NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:26LIB Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:46NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
68.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
68.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
68.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
68.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 38 yds, downed at the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
67.9%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
67.9%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+6
68.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
67.9%
TEAM punt for no gain, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:1568% → 69%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
68.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+6
68.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
68.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for no gain to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+14
68.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
68.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 1
OPP 5
0
68.1%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
69.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 5 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
68.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 1 yd to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
68.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+16
69.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 16 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
68.9%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 26 Jason Huntley fumbled, forced by Juwan Wells, recovered by Liber Devin PearsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1670% → 70%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
70.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+5
70.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Peytton Pickett for 5 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+5
69.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 5 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
70.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
70.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
69.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
70.0%
Alex Probert 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3730% → 26%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
69.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 4 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+26
74.2%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted for a TD Solomon Ajayi return for 26 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
70.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Ray Buford Jr.Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
70.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
70.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 28 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
69.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
69.4%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
69.5%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+10
69.7%
Christian Gibson run for 10 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
69.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 10 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
68.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 13
OPP 34
-6
69.1%
Josh Adkins sacked by Juwan Wells for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 40Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+13
70.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 13 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 6
OPP 27
0
69.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10INT TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3672% → 68%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
71.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 5 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+37
67.6%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted for a TD Javahn Fergurson return for 37 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
14 plays · 20 yds · 0:3167% → 66%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
67.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
67.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 12 yds to the Liber 35 LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive holding (Michael Bollinger) to the Liber 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+2
67.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+2
66.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
67.2%
CALVERT, S. deep pass complete to GANDY-GOLDEN,A. for 25 yards to the NMSU46 (Lomax, Shamad), PENALTY LIBERTY holding (LOZANO, J.) 10 yards to the LIBERTY19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 19
-9
67.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Julio Lozano) to the Liber 10Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 29
OWN 10
+10
67.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 10 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 20
+19
66.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 19 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
67.6%
Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-10
68.1%
CALVERT, S. sideline pass complete to STUBBS, DJ for no gain to the LIBERTY42 (Lomax, Shamad), PENALTY LIBERTY holding (SCHULTZ, T.) 10 yards to the LIBERTY32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+5
67.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+2
66.6%
Stephen Calvert run for 2 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
66.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 39 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
66.8%
Christian Gibson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-9
66.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+12
67.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
67.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 29 yds, downed at the Liber 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
67.9%
Kentory Matthews run for 1 yd to the Liber 41Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+7
67.5%
Kentory Matthews run for 7 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
67.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
66.9%
Aidan Alves punt for 31 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
67.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by Juwan WellsSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
67.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 11 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
66.5%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
66.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (OJ Clark) to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 15
OWN 27
0
67.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Bejour WilsonSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 15
OWN 27
0
68.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 15
OWN 27
-3
68.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 44 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3368% → 73%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
67.5%
Kentory Matthews run for 9 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
68.6%
Kentory Matthews run for 2 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
68.0%
Kentory Matthews run for 1 yd to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
68.0%
Kentory Matthews run for 1 yd to the Liber 39Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+10
67.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 10 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
69.3%
CALVERT, S. deep pass incomplete to GANDY-GOLDEN,A., PENALTY NMSU pass interference (LaForce, Ron) 15 yards to the NMSU36, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
69.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
70.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-3
69.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
72.6%
Alex Probert 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
70.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
70.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+9
71.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
70.4%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:4175% → 84%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
75.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+14
75.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-8
75.3%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+31
84.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 31 yds for a TD (Stephen Calvert pass to B.J. Farrow for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
81.9%
Jason Huntley run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
80.9%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
82.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 17 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
81.5%
Josh Adkins sacked by Austin Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+13
82.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 13 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
80.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 22 yds to the Liber 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
80.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 5 yds to the Liber 3Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.3%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the Liber 1Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.2%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the Liber 1Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
81.7%
Josh Adkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
85.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 7Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+4
85.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+3
84.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
85.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 8 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 2
OWN 22
0
85.5%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the Liber 22Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+3
84.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.5%
Kentory Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 24Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
85.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 2 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
84.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
84.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 43 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+18
86.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 18 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
84.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
84.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+7
85.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 7 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
84.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 30 yds, fair catch by B.J. Farrow at the Liber 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
88.7%
Kentory Matthews run for 4 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 6
OWN 18
-5
88.8%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Javahn Fergurson for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 13Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+13
88.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 13 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
88.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 20 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
89.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
88.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. Farrow, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
88.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 35 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
89.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 20 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
88.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 10 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
87.5%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
87.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
88.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
88.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by B.J. Farrow at the Liber 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
92.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
92.5%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted DeMarcus Owens return for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:2912% → 10%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
88.5%
Josh Adkins sacked by Brandon Tillmon for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 37
+14
90.7%
Josh Adkins run for 14 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
89.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew Dan, broken up by Jeremy PetersSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
89.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
93.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 18Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
92.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-9
92.7%
CALVERT, S. sideline pass complete to FARROW, B.J. for 29 yards to the LIBERTY47 (Lomax, Shamad), PENALTY LIBERTY holding (ISAACSON, S.) 9 yards to the LIBERTY9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 21
OWN 9
+5
92.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
92.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
90.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 24 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
90.1%
Josh Adkins sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 42Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 13
OPP 42
0
90.3%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the Liber 42Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+17
90.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 17 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.8%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
89.3%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
89.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Caleb Mills, broken up by Jeremy PetersSimilar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 5
OPP 20
0
90.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
94.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 9 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
94.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
94.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 12 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
95.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
94.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
94.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
94.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 37 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
93.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 15 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.7%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
92.9%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
92.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
93.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
92.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
93.1%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:1597% → 97%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
96.9%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 46Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+1
97.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-4
97.5%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
97.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 2:502% → 11%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
98.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
98.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 11 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
98.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Solomon AjayiSimilar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+14
98.2%
Josh Adkins run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
98.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 24 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
97.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 11 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Caleb Mills, broken up by Corbin JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+15
97.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 15 yds to the Liber 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
97.6%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the Liber 3Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
97.6%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 4Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q4 1:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-1
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 12
OPP 45
-1
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 31 yds for a TD (Stephen Calvert pass to B.J. Farrow for Two-Point Conversion)
+10.2
TD · Q4 1:46
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
-9.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com