Try the model
NMSU

New Mexico State 10 at BYU 45

BYU
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Payton Theisler punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Pregame prior+16.8Home team on offense+33.2Score differential+30.3Garbage-time factor+9.4Blowout margin+14.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:20: Matt Hadley run for 1 yd for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +1.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:29: Matt Hadley run for 40 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +1.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:47: Lopini Katoa run for 15 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +1.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:36: Lopini Katoa run for 13 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:37: Lopini Katoa run for 14 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:10BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:12BYU 4th & 21 at BYU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:17NMSU 4th & 7 at BYU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:17BYU 4th & 13 at NMSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:20NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:07BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:24NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 17, down 7
    Close callPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:40NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:24NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00BYU 4th & 5 at NMSU 6, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:53BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 33, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:50NMSU 4th & 17 at BYU 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:37NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:22NMSU 4th & 10 at BYU 15, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:15BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 12 at BYU 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:49NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 49, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:50NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 34, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:06BYU 4th & 13 at BYU 24, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:09BYU 4th & 2 at NMSU 38, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:52NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 43, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:18NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:20BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:29BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:47BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:36BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:37BYU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:09BYU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
95.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 4 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
95.7%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
95.7%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
95.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.6%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
95.6%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
95.6%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
95.6%
Rhett Almond punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 4:275% → 6%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
95.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+1
95.5%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
95.5%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
95.5%
BYU Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
95.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
95.5%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+6
95.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 6 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
95.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 7 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+1
95.5%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
95.5%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
95.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 7 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+13
95.5%
Christian Gibson run for 13 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
94.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
93.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 17 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
94.0%
Aleva Hifo run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 19Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-10
94.0%
Zach Wilson sacked by Myles Vigne for a loss of 10 yards to the BYU 9Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 21
OWN 9
0
93.9%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
93.9%
Rhett Almond punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Naveon Mitchell at the BYU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:217% → 7%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
93.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
93.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+17
93.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 17 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
93.1%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
93.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
93.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
92.7%
Dylan Brown 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
92.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
92.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
93.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
93.1%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
93.0%
Matt Hadley run for no gain to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 13
OPP 49
0
92.9%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
92.8%
Rhett Almond punt for 36 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
91.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
91.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+1
91.7%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Malik Moore return for 1 yd to the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:5592% → 93%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
92.1%
Matt Hadley run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+4
92.1%
Matt Hadley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
92.1%
Matt Hadley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Matt Hadley run for 1 yd for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.4%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
92.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.6%
Dylan Brown punt for 58 yds, downed at the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
92.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+15
92.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.3%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
92.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 8 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
92.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Akile Davis, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+2
92.3%
Rhett Almond punt for 49 yds , Naveon Mitchell returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal block (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11INT
12 plays · 64 yds · 0:028% → 9%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
91.6%
Christian Gibson run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
91.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 7 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+5
91.4%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
91.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-2
91.6%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+22
91.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 22 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
91.1%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+7
91.3%
Josh Adkins run for 7 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+16
91.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 16 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
90.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jonathan HoodSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+3
91.1%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Isaiah Kaufusi return for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:1991% → 92%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
90.7%
Matt Hadley run for no gain to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
90.6%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+10
90.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dallin Holker for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
90.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 18 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
91.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
91.4%
Dylan Collie run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+40
92.4%
Matt Hadley run for 40 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
91.9%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+4
91.9%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+1
92.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 1 yd to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
92.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:4392% → 94%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
92.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dallin Holker for 22 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
92.5%
WILSON, Zach pass complete to BUSHMAN, Matt for 8 yards to the NMSU28 (Owens, DeMarcus), PENALTY NMSU offside 5 yards to the NMSU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 5
OPP 31
+7
92.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
92.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dallin Holker, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
92.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 9 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
93.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 15 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
93.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-5
93.7%
Josh Adkins sacked by Trajan Pili for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
93.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 43 yds, downed at the BYU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:0794% → 98%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
93.8%
Riley Burt run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
93.9%
Riley Burt run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+15
93.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dylan Collie for 15 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
94.6%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
94.6%
Riley Burt run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
94.4%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
98.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 13 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:073% → 3%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
97.3%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
97.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
97.3%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+7
97.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 34 yds , Dylan Collie returns for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:0498% → 98%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.1%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
98.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for no gain to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+32
98.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 32 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.0%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
98.1%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dallin HolkerSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+5
97.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Hadley for 5 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
97.7%
Skyler Southam 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-6
97.9%
Zach Wilson sacked by Terrill Hanks for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 13Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+16
97.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 16 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
97.9%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
97.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
97.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
97.8%
Rhett Almond punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:162% → 2%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
97.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-4
97.8%
Josh Adkins sacked by Sione Takitaki for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+15
97.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 15 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
97.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 19 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+25
97.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 25 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Caleb MillsSimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+13
97.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 13 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
97.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-7
97.3%
Josh Adkins sacked by Lorenzo Fauatea for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 17
OPP 22
0
97.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+40
98.1%
Dylan Brown 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:1398% → 100%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
98.2%
Riley Burt run for 7 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+14
98.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 14 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
98.3%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
98.3%
Riley Burt run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
98.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
98.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dallin Holker for 23 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
98.3%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
98.3%
Riley Burt run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 14 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Christian GibsonSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 17 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Payton Theisler punt for 28 yds , Jaylon Vickers returns for no gain to the BYU 30 Jaylon Vickers fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Javahn FergursonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 7 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+8
99.7%
Josh Adkins run for 8 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Caleb Mills, broken up by Keenan EllisSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
99.8%
Dylan Brown 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
99.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dallin Holker, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Rhett Almond punt for 25 yds, downed at the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 3
50
+3
99.8%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
99.9%
Josh Adkins sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 48 Josh Adkins fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Josh Adkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+50
99.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 50 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+21
99.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dallin Holker for 21 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:200% → 0%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 24 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28INT
6 plays · 63 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+44
99.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 44 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted, touchback. TEAM return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 8 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Matthew CriddleSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 50 yds, downed at the BYU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
99.9%
Dax Milne run for 9 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
ALLGEIER, Tyler rush for 5 yards to the BYU32 (Graves III, J.), PENALTY NMSU offside 5 yards to the BYU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 5
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Lopini Katoa run for no gain to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-5
99.9%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-3
99.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 13
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Danny Jones punt for 36 yds , Naveon Mitchell returns for no gain to the NMxSt 46 Naveon Mitchell fumbled, recovered by BYU Gavin FowlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Dax Milne run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Dax Milne run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-1
99.9%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 2
OPP 38
-3
99.9%
Dax Milne run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
100.0%
Josh Adkins sacked by Devin Kaufusi for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+5
100.0%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Christian GibsonSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 43 yds, downed at the BYU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:36
Lopini Katoa run for 13 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q3 5:37
Lopini Katoa run for 14 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 4:47
Lopini Katoa run for 15 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com