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ALCN

Alcorn State 42 at New Mexico State 52

NMSU
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadALCN aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreALCN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:10 · Payton Theisler punt for 47 yds , Leishaun Ealey returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 46 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the AlcSt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Pregame prior+29.0Home team on offense+2.4Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:29: Jason Huntley run for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:02: Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Blair for 5 yds for a TD (Corey McCullough KICK) — ALCN win probability +8.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:14: Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 29 yds for a TD (Corey McCullough KICK) — ALCN win probability +11.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:43: De'Shawn Waller run for 17 yds for a TD (Corey McCullough KICK) — ALCN win probability +19.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 7:37: Jason Huntley run for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ALCN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:47ALCN 4th & 6 at ALCN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:23NMSU 4th & 1 at ALCN 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    80.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:10NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ALCN 4th & 1 at ALCN 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.4%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:20ALCN 4th & 2 at NMSU 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:29ALCN 4th & 1 at ALCN 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.3%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:29ALCN 4th & 6 at ALCN 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ALCN 4th & 5 at NMSU 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:22NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 37, up 21
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:59NMSU 4th & 1 at ALCN 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%−1.6
    83% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:48NMSU 4th & 11 at ALCN 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ALCN 4th & 16 at NMSU 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:54NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:30ALCN 4th & 20 at NMSU 37, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ALCN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:14NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:10ALCN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:20NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:29NMSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:55NMSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:45ALCN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:02ALCN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:14ALCN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:43ALCN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:37NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:52NMSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:26ALCN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALCNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.2%
De'Shawn Waller run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
84.2%
Noah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
84.2%
Noah Johnson run for no gain to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q1 14:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
84.2%
Corey McCullough punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:0984% → 85%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for no gain to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
84.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
50
+35
84.2%
Christian Gibson run for 35 yds to the AlcSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
84.2%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 16Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+9
84.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 9 yds to the AlcSt 7Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
84.2%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 6Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+3
84.1%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
84.2%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 3 yards to the AlcSt 6Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by Jalen ThomasSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
85.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 4TD
14 plays · 91 yds · 5:5515% → 18%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
84.8%
P.J. Simmons run for 12 yds to the AlcSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
84.7%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Jaquaveon Boles for 3 yds to the AlcSt 24Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+8
84.7%
P.J. Simmons run for 8 yds to the AlcSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
84.7%
Noah Johnson run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 37Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
84.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Blair for 5 yds to the AlcSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
84.6%
P.J. Simmons run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 44Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
84.6%
De'Shawn Waller run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 48Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+10
84.6%
De'Shawn Waller run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-9
84.6%
Noah Johnson sacked by John Graves III for a loss of 9 yards to the AlcSt 49Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 19
OWN 49
+8
84.7%
De'Shawn Waller run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+23
84.7%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Blair for 23 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
84.4%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 8 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
82.2%
De'Shawn Waller run for 12 yds for a TD (Corey McCullough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
83.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
83.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+3
83.6%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+47
83.4%
Payton Theisler punt for 47 yds , Leishaun Ealey returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 46 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the AlcSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 6FUMBLE
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:3817% → 18%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
83.0%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Raidarious AndersonSimilar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+20
83.1%
De'Shawn Waller run for 20 yds to the AlcSt 21 De'Shawn Waller fumbled, forced by Shamad Lomax, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
82.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Tavares Johnson for 8 yds to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
82.5%
Noah Johnson run for no gain to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+2
82.9%
De'Shawn Waller run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
82.7%
P.J. Simmons run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 32Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-15
82.8%
Johnson, Noah pass incomplete to Anderson, R. (Koffie, Komotay), PENALTY ALCN illegal block (Gordon, William) 15 yards to the ALCN17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 24
OWN 17
+18
83.0%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Dayall Harris for 18 yds to the AlcSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
82.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Dayall Harris for 5 yds to the AlcSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+3
82.5%
De'Shawn Waller run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
82.1%
De'Shawn Waller run for a loss of 6 yards to the AlcSt 39 De'Shawn Waller fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Shane JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3484% → 88%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
83.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 5 yds to the AlcSt 34Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
83.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the AlcSt 30Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+7
83.3%
Christian Gibson run for 7 yds to the AlcSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
83.6%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
87.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
85.9%
P.J. Simmons run for 19 yds to the AlcSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
85.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Kyontez Everett for 4 yds to the AlcSt 48Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
85.3%
P.J. Simmons run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 49Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+3
85.4%
P.J. Simmons run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
85.6%
Corey McCullough punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:3887% → 94%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
87.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 19 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
87.5%
Christian Gibson run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+43
87.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 43 yds to the AlcSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
87.9%
Josh Adkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the AlcSt 10Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
93.9%
Jason Huntley run for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.6%
De'Shawn Waller run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 28Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
92.5%
De'Shawn Waller run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 32Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
92.5%
De'Shawn Waller run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 34Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
92.5%
Noah Johnson run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
92.4%
De'Shawn Waller run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 39Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
92.4%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Raidarious Anderson, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
92.5%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Dayall Harris, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
92.6%
Corey McCullough punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 3:3994% → 98%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
94.2%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
94.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+16
94.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 16 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
94.3%
Jason Huntley run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
94.4%
Christian Gibson run for 28 yds to the AlcSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
94.4%
Josh Adkins sacked by Trae Ferrell for a loss of 7 yards to the AlcSt 39Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+24
94.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 24 yds to the AlcSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
94.4%
Christian Gibson run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 10Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-5
94.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AlcSt 15Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
94.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 15 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:102% → 6%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.3%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Tavares Johnson for 10 yds to the AlcSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.2%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 5 yds to the AlcSt 40Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
97.9%
Noah Johnson run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 43Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
97.8%
De'Shawn Waller run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
50
+50
94.3%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Dayall Harris for 50 yds for a TD Timeout ALCORN ST, clock 00:45 (Corey McCullough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:4096% → 97%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
96.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 4 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+20
96.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 20 yds to the AlcSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
96.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 9 yds to the AlcSt 35Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+53
96.5%
Dylan Brown 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.8%
Marquise Forman run for 8 yds to the AlcSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
94.3%
Marquise Forman run for a loss of 2 yards to the AlcSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
94.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 6 yds to the AlcSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.5%
P.J. Simmons run for no gain to the AlcSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
94.5%
De'Shawn Waller run for 12 yds to the AlcSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
94.4%
Noah Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
94.1%
De'Shawn Waller run for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-2
94.3%
De'Shawn Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
94.5%
Corey McCullough punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
96.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
96.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
96.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 3
OWN 37
-2
96.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 48 yds , Leishaun Ealey returns for a loss of 2 yards to the AlcSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 16TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 3:094% → 13%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
96.3%
Noah Johnson run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 14Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+28
96.3%
Noah Johnson run for 28 yds to the AlcSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
96.1%
De'Shawn Waller run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+11
95.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 11 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
96.0%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Dayall Harris for 14 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
95.5%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 8 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 2
OPP 16
-2
95.6%
Noah Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 18 Noah Johnson fumbled, recovered by AlcSt Noah JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+13
95.9%
De'Shawn Waller run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.3%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Blair for 5 yds for a TD (Corey McCullough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 5:1192% → 95%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
91.6%
Josh Adkins run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
92.0%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+4
91.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 4 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+17
91.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 17 yds to the AlcSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
92.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
92.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 6 yds to the AlcSt 37Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+13
91.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 13 yds to the AlcSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
92.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
92.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the AlcSt 16Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
91.9%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 15Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+4
91.5%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
92.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-1
92.2%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 12Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 11
OPP 12
0
91.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to DeMarcus Owens, broken up by Calvontay KeySimilar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+30
95.1%
Dylan Brown 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:485% → 5%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Dayall HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+33
95.1%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Blair for 33 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
94.7%
P.J. Simmons run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
94.9%
De'Shawn Waller run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-10
95.0%
Waller, D. rush for 7 yards to the NMSU31 (Buford Jr., Ray;Jackson, Shane), PENALTY ALCN holding (Hall, Kevin) 10 yards to the NMSU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 48
0
95.3%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Chris BlairSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 48
0
95.3%
Corey McCullough punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
96.0%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+3
96.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
96.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 6
OWN 7
0
95.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 48 yds, downed at the AlcSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 20TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:254% → 16%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
95.8%
Juan Anthony Jr. run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+15
95.4%
Noah Johnson run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
95.2%
De'Shawn Waller run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+29
83.7%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 29 yds for a TD (Corey McCullough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
88.7%
Josh Adkins sacked by Darrell Henderson for 0 yards to the NMxSt 34 Josh Adkins fumbled, recovered by AlcSt Sterling Shippy , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 22TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:2516% → 35%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
84.1%
Noah Johnson run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
64.9%
De'Shawn Waller run for 17 yds for a TD (Corey McCullough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:0076% → 92%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
76.1%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+13
76.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 13 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
78.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 7 yds to the AlcSt 45Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+9
79.1%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the AlcSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+25
79.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 25 yds to the AlcSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
80.0%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 8Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-1
80.0%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 9Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
91.7%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
91.4%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 6 yds to the AlcSt 23Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+2
90.3%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 2 yds to the AlcSt 25Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+48
90.9%
Noah Johnson run for 48 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
87.8%
Johnson, Noah pass incomplete to Harris, Dayall, PENALTY ALCN holding (Brooks, Deonte) 10 yards to the NMSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 20
OPP 37
0
89.3%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Dayall HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 20
OPP 37
0
89.5%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Chris BlairSimilar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 20
OPP 37
0
90.8%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Juan Anthony Jr., broken up by Leon McQuakerSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 20
OPP 37
0
91.6%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Tavares JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:3592% → 98%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
92.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
92.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to DeMarcus Owens, broken up by Qwynnterrio ColeSimilar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+14
91.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
50
-10
92.8%
Gibson, C. rush for 15 yards to the ALCN35 (Anderson, D.), PENALTY NMSU holding (Mills, Caleb) 10 yards to the NMSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 20
OWN 40
0
92.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+60
98.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 60 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 26TD
16 plays · 96 yds · 3:202% → 6%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
98.1%
De'Shawn Waller run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 6Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+3
98.2%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Jaquaveon Boles for 3 yds to the AlcSt 9Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+5
98.2%
De'Shawn Waller run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
98.1%
Noah Johnson run for 16 yds to the AlcSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
97.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Chris Blair for 6 yds to the AlcSt 36Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
97.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 5 yds to the AlcSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
97.9%
Noah Johnson run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 44Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
97.9%
Noah Johnson run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 49Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
97.9%
De'Shawn Waller run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
97.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Dayall Harris for 21 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
97.4%
Noah Johnson pass complete to LeCharles Pringle for 16 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
97.4%
De'Shawn Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
97.7%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Dayall Harris, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+12
94.5%
Noah Johnson pass complete to De'Shawn Waller for 12 yds for a TD (Corey McCullough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 15
OWN 40
-5
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:43
De'Shawn Waller run for 17 yds for a TD (Corey McCullough KICK)
-19.2
TD · Q4 7:37
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q4 11:14
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 29 yds for a TD (Corey McCullough KICK)
-11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com