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NMSU

New Mexico State 20 at Texas State 27

TXST
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:33 · Christian Gibson run for 13 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Pregame prior−1.1Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:36: Anthony J. Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Stewart PAT MISSED) — TXST win probability +6.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:02: Jason Huntley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:14: Willie Jones III pass complete to Javen Banks for 18 yds for a TD, (Clayton Stewart KICK) — TXST win probability +10.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:14: Willie Jones III pass complete to Kordell Rodgers for 39 yds for a TD — TXST win probability +12.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q3 2:17: Willie Jones III run for a loss of 2 yards Willie Jones III fumbled, forced by Shane Jackson, recovered by NMxSt Shane Jackson , return for 34 yds, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22NMSU 4th & 4 at TXST 20, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:22TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at TXST 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−1.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:35NMSU 4th & 4 at TXST 4, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:28TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−2.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:02TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:33NMSU 4th & 4 at TXST 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:23NMSU 4th & 4 at TXST 7, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:23TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:56NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:14NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:07NMSU 4th & 8 at TXST 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:54TXST 4th & 9 at NMSU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:15NMSU 4th & 7 at TXST 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:09TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:58TXST 4th & 2 at NMSU 37, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−2.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%−2.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:51NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−2.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:01TXST 4th & 4 at NMSU 27, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−4.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:29NMSU 4th & 5 at TXST 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−3.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−6.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:07TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:36TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:02NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:14TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.3%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
48.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 14 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
48.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
48.3%
Josh Adkins sacked by Jarron Morris for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
48.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by JaShon WaddySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+45
48.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 38 yds , Hutch White returns for 45 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:5549% → 50%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
49.1%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
49.1%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Mason Hays for 7 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+19
50.3%
Willie Jones III run for 19 yds for a TD, (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 3:4550% → 48%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.9%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
50.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Shea Holebrook Jr. for 17 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
49.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
49.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+11
50.0%
Josh Adkins run for 11 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
49.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Bryce RobertsSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
49.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+22
49.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 22 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
49.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Christian GibsonSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
49.5%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+4
49.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Xander Yarberough for 4 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
51.9%
Parker Davidson 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
52.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
52.3%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Keenen Brown for no gain to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
52.0%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the TexSt 23 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+34
51.7%
Clayton Stewart punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEXSTATE 43 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5INT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-18
52.3%
Huntley, Jason rush over left end for loss of 3 yards to the NMSU40, out-of-bounds (Waddy,JaShon), PENALTY NMSU illegal block (Clark, OJ) 18 yards to the NMSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 28
OWN 25
-5
52.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 33
OWN 20
+17
52.8%
Jason Huntley run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+3
52.8%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+23
52.9%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Clifton Lewis Jr. return for 23 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:5455% → 61%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
54.9%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
54.8%
Willie Jones III run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
54.9%
Willie Jones III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+1
54.9%
Willie Jones III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+5
54.5%
Willie Jones III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.4%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Stewart PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FG
19 plays · 71 yds · 6:0140% → 41%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.6%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
59.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 5 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
59.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 9 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
59.2%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+11
59.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 11 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
58.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-1
59.3%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+12
59.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+3
58.8%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+5
61.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 5 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
59.9%
Josh Adkins run for 17 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
59.7%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
59.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+5
60.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, UR (Kumonde Hines) to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
59.7%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
59.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Xander YarberoughSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
60.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by JaShon WaddySimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
58.7%
Parker Davidson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
60.1%
Twyford,Caleb rush over right end for 3 yards to the TXST42 (Buford Jr., Ray), PENALTY TXST holding (Moore,Morgan) 10 yards to the TXST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 20
OWN 29
-8
59.3%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 2 yds to the TexSt 31 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 28
OWN 21
-10
59.1%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 38
OWN 11
+10
59.0%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 10 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 28
OWN 21
+7
58.4%
Willie Jones III run for 7 yds to the TexSt 33 Willie Jones III fumbled, forced by Javahn Fergurson,Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 16
OWN 33
0
57.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 18 yds, downed at the NMxSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:4640% → 49%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
59.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 6 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+40
59.4%
Jason Huntley run for 40 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
50.8%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.1%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
53.9%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
53.0%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
52.3%
Clayton Stewart punt blocked by Christian Gibson blocked by Christian Gibson TEAM return for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:1049% → 51%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
51.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
51.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Shea Holebrook Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
51.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Shea Holebrook Jr. for no gain to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+13
53.4%
Christian Gibson run for 13 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
50.8%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
50.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 6 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
51.7%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
48.6%
Parker Davidson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
52.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
52.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 10 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
53.4%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
52.3%
Willie Jones III sacked by Javahn Fergurson for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+2
50.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 53 yds , OJ Clark returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
50.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
50.2%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
51.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
52.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 50 yds, downed at the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:4054% → 67%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
53.7%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Roy Lopez) to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
55.8%
Willie Jones III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
56.3%
Jeremiah Haydel run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+8
55.7%
Willie Jones III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
56.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+8
57.0%
Willie Jones III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
57.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
67.2%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Javen Banks for 18 yds for a TD, (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.4%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
62.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
63.1%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
63.6%
Payton Theisler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
64.8%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4666% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.8%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
65.8%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
64.7%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 19 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
67.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
68.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+2
67.0%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+39
79.5%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Kordell Rodgers for 39 yds for a TDSimilar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+39
79.9%
Jeremiah Haydel 39 Yd pass from Willie Jones III (Clayton Stewart Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
78.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
78.1%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+16
78.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 16 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
77.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
77.4%
Christian Gibson run for 7 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
76.9%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
76.6%
Josh Adkins sacked by Ishmael Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
77.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by Jalen SmithSimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+4
77.8%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
78.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:1084% → 82%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
83.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+34
83.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 34 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
84.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 49 TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Aaron Brewer) to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 25
OWN 36
+6
82.8%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Anthony J. Taylor for 6 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 19
OWN 42
+10
82.5%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+1
82.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 29 yds , OJ Clark returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:0018% → 20%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
82.4%
Christian Gibson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+35
82.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 35 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
78.7%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
78.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Shea Holebrook Jr.Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
79.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
80.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5486% → 75%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.3%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
86.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Reece Jordan) to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+4
85.6%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+34
74.6%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 2 yards Willie Jones III fumbled, forced by Shane Jackson, recovered by NMxSt Shane Jackson , return for 34 yds, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
75.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-10
75.3%
Jones III, Willie sideline pass incomplete, PENALTY TXST holding (5B) 10 yards to the TXST15, NO PLAY, QB hurry by Wilcots II, Cedric.Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+18
74.9%
Willie Jones III run for 18 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
76.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
77.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
76.4%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
74.6%
Clayton Stewart punt for 35 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23INT
15 plays · 67 yds · 0:0527% → 32%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
73.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+1
71.7%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
72.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
71.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 5 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
70.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 9 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
69.0%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+11
69.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 11 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
67.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Shea Holebrook Jr. for 10 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
66.2%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-10
67.2%
Adkins, Josh sideline pass incomplete, PENALTY NMSU holding (McClain, Isaac) 10 yards to the TXST34, NO PLAY, QB hurry by Patton,Caeveon, QB hurry by Lewis Jr, Clifton.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 34
+9
69.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 9 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+12
70.9%
Adkins, Josh sideline pass incomplete to Boone, Johnathan, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Taylor, Anthony J) 12 yards to the TXST13, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
66.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 2 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+5
66.2%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
68.5%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted, touchback. Anthony J. Taylor return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:5483% → 88%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
83.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-5
83.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Mason Hays) to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
82.8%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+12
81.8%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Javen Banks for 12 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
83.5%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
83.2%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+17
86.6%
Willie Jones III run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
88.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
87.9%
Willie Jones III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
87.3%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
87.8%
Clayton Stewart punt for 30 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-4
86.2%
Josh Adkins sacked by Ishmael Davis and Caeveon Patton for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 14
OWN 3
0
86.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew Dan, broken up by Ishmael DavisSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 14
OWN 3
0
87.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 14
OWN 3
+10
87.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 40 yds , Hutch White returns for 10 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26MISSED FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0691% → 92%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
90.6%
Willie Jones III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
90.6%
Willie Jones III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-2
90.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+44
92.0%
Clayton Stewart 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27DOWNS
13 plays · 2 yds · 2:3218% → 12%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-29
82.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 29 yards to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 39
OWN 44
0
89.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Kordell RodgersSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 39
OWN 44
0
89.7%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
88.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Shea Holebrook Jr.Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+14
90.3%
Adkins, Josh sideline pass incomplete to Holebrook Jr., Shea (Morris,Jarron), PENALTY TXST pass interference (Aragon,Blake) 14 yards to the TXST42, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
85.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Caleb MillsSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
86.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
83.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
83.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Shea Holebrook Jr., broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+5
85.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 5
OPP 0
0
85.7%
Adkins, Josh middle pass complete to Clark, OJ for 2 yards to the TXST23 (Daniels,Nikolas), PENALTY NMSU ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, PENALTY TXST face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 5
OPP 25
0
87.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew Dan, broken up by JaShon WaddySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28Uncategorized
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:4697% → 98%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-3
97.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:14
Willie Jones III pass complete to Kordell Rodgers for 39 yds for a TD
+12.6
FUMBLE · Q3 2:17
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 2 yards Willie Jones III fumbled, forced by Shane Jackson, recovered by NMxSt Shane Jackson , return for 34 yds, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-11
TD · Q2 1:14
Willie Jones III pass complete to Javen Banks for 18 yds for a TD, (Clayton Stewart KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com