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GASO

Georgia Southern 48 at New Mexico State 31

NMSU
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.6NMSU 1.4%Tyler Bass 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 48 - HOME 24 · Q4 10:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:18 · Tyler Bass 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense−46.7Pregame prior−5.2Score differential−26.5Garbage-time factor−9.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:33: Jason Huntley run for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:36: Wesley Kennedy III run for 15 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +4.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:06: Shai Werts run for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +9.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:38: Logan Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +8.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:59: Monteo Garrett run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +7.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 8:36GASO 4th & 11 at NMSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:31GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 37, down 11
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:29NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:36NMSU 4th & 9 at GASO 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:18NMSU 4th & 4 at GASO 5, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−6.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:24NMSU 4th & 1 at GASO 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:18GASO 4th & 1 at NMSU 8, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:19GASO 4th & 4 at NMSU 42, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:37NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 41, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:37NMSU 4th & 9 at GASO 48, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:28NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:33NMSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:36GASO Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:33GASO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:38GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:59GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:24GASO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:59NMSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:20NMSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3223% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
22.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
22.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+9
22.5%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
22.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 5 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
22.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Caleb Mills for 9 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
22.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 3 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
22.5%
Christian Gibson run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+21
22.5%
Josh Adkins run for 21 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.5%
Christian Gibson run for 5 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:4075% → 74%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+33
25.3%
Shai Werts run for 33 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
25.0%
Logan Wright run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
24.9%
Shai Werts sacked by Shane Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+7
25.0%
Logan Wright run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-1
25.1%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+41
26.4%
Tyler Bass 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0326% → 31%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
26.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 24 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
26.6%
Christian Gibson run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
26.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 1 yd to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+8
26.6%
Christian Gibson run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
26.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 26 yds to the GeoSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
30.8%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
29.6%
Monteo Garrett run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
29.6%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+3
29.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+56
29.8%
Magill Bauerle punt for 56 yds , OJ Clark returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
32.3%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+8
32.3%
Christian Gibson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+3
32.0%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
32.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-8
32.3%
Adkins, Josh pass complete to Clark, OJ for 12 yards to the NMSU29 (M. Brinson;J. Moon), PENALTY NMSU holding (Dan, Drew) 8 yards to the NMSU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+6
32.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 6 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
32.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason Huntley, broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
31.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 31 yds, downed at the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:3267% → 71%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+31
33.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Ellis Richardson for 31 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
29.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 15 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
30.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 26 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
31.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
31.7%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
31.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Jessie LiptrotSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
30.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:4768% → 72%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
31.7%
Monteo Garrett run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+9
32.1%
Matt LaRoche run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.9%
Monteo Garrett run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
31.5%
Logan Wright run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
31.1%
Monteo Garrett run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+12
30.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
30.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
30.5%
Monteo Garrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+31
30.6%
Shai Werts run for 31 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
29.9%
Monteo Garrett run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
27.8%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 8 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:1130% → 36%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
30.3%
Jason Huntley run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
30.7%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
30.9%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
30.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 15 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
32.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Shea Holebrook Jr.Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
32.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 12 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+26
32.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 26 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
33.4%
Christian Gibson run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
33.4%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
32.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
36.4%
Dylan Brown 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1267% → 78%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
32.5%
Logan Wright run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
31.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Monteo Garrett for 4 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
30.9%
Monteo Garrett run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
30.6%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
30.6%
Matt LaRoche run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+23
31.0%
Shai Werts pass complete to Davarius Bargnare for 23 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
29.9%
Logan Wright run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-1
29.9%
Wesley Kennedy III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+11
30.6%
Shai Werts run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
29.9%
Wesley Kennedy III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
31.7%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.3%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:1677% → 86%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
22.9%
Logan Wright run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
22.6%
Monteo Garrett run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
22.5%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
22.5%
Wesley Kennedy III run for no gain to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+17
22.5%
Logan Wright run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
22.2%
Monteo Garrett run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.7%
Logan Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
16.1%
Jason Huntley run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
16.8%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
16.9%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-7
17.3%
Josh Adkins sacked by Quan Griffin for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 33 Josh Adkins fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Quan Griffin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 1:1588% → 95%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
12.5%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
12.5%
Logan Wright run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
5.4%
Monteo Garrett run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
7.7%
Christian Gibson run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
8.3%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
8.1%
Christian Gibson run for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+15
7.8%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Kindle Vildor return for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:2295% → 98%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
50
+19
5.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 19 yds to the NEWMEXST 31 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
5.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+9
5.1%
Logan Wright run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
2.1%
Logan Wright run for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:254% → 5%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
3.9%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
4.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 17 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
4.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Brian Trujillo) to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
4.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for no gain to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-1
4.1%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+15
4.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 15 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
4.4%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
4.6%
Adkins, Josh pass complete to Huntley, Jason for 1 yard to the GS31 (J. Moon), PENALTY GS personal foul (J. Moon) 15 yards to the GS17, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
1.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 9 yds to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+6
1.2%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.3%
Huntley, Jason rush for loss of 2 yards to the GS4 (J. Ferguson), PENALTY GS personal foul 1 yards to the GS1, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.0%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 7:4197% → 99%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
2.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
2.7%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
2.6%
Monteo Garrett run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
2.6%
Matt LaRoche run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
2.5%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
2.1%
Monteo Garrett run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+7
2.0%
Monteo Garrett run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
2.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+10
2.0%
Logan Wright run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
2.0%
Monteo Garrett run for no gain to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
2.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+3
2.0%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+25
1.4%
Tyler Bass 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:582% → 5%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
1.8%
Adkins, Josh pass complete to Clark, OJ for 25 yards to the GS40, PENALTY NMSU holding (Trujillo, Brian) 10 yards to the NMSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+7
1.8%
Christian Gibson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+11
1.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 11 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+20
1.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 20 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
2.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
2.0%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+15
2.2%
Christian Gibson run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
2.2%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (Benz Josue) to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
2.2%
Josh Adkins sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 13 Josh Adkins fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Josh Adkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+12
2.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.3%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
3.3%
Monteo Garrett run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-1
3.3%
Monteo Garrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+4
3.3%
Monteo Garrett run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
3.5%
Magill Bauerle punt for 23 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21FUMBLE
11 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
2.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew Dan, broken up by Tomarcio ReeseSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+19
2.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 19 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
2.9%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+1
2.9%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 41 Josh Adkins fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Josh Adkins , return for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+10
2.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 10 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
3.0%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-10
3.0%
Gibson, C. rush for 3 yards to the GS46 (T. Phillips;T. Reese), PENALTY NMSU holding (Bello, Tony) 10 yards to the NMSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+2
2.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 2 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 18
OWN 43
+9
2.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 9 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 9
OPP 48
-12
3.0%
Josh Adkins sacked by Quan Griffin for a loss of 12 yards to the NMxSt 37 Josh Adkins fumbled, recovered by GeoSo C.J. Wright , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
1.5%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-1
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-2
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:06
Shai Werts run for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q3 11:38
Logan Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q3 8:59
Monteo Garrett run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com