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NMSU

New Mexico State 38 at Louisiana 66

UL
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:48 · Josh Adkins pass intercepted Corey Turner return for no gain to the LaLaf 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense+35.1Pregame prior+4.1Score differential+30.8Garbage-time factor+10.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Blowout margin+16.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:30: Elijah Mitchell run for 31 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +8.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:39: Christian Gibson run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:15: Christian Gibson run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:59: Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 31 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +6.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:37: Christian Gibson run for 11 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:50NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:04NMSU 4th & 2 at UL 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−3.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:30NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:11UL 4th & 6 at NMSU 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:31NMSU 4th & 8 at UL 8, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:32UL 4th & 5 at NMSU 35, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.2
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q4 9:48NMSU 4th & 12 at UL 48, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:50UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:36UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:39NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:05UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:30UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:01UL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:39NMSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:15NMSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:59UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:37NMSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:39UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 9:48UL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1074% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.2%
Trey Ragas run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
74.2%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
74.2%
Trey Ragas run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
74.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
0
74.2%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 10
50
+50
74.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 50 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-8
74.3%
Josh Adkins sacked by Corey Turner for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 18
OWN 11
+5
74.4%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 13
OWN 16
0
74.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
74.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:0075% → 76%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
74.7%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+12
74.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 12 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
74.8%
Raymond Calais run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
74.8%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
74.8%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+30
76.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 30 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:5724% → 26%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
76.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 10 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
75.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+51
74.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 51 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 5:3475% → 79%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
74.7%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
74.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+10
74.5%
Andre Nunez run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.8%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
74.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Calif Gossett for 15 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
75.1%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+14
74.9%
Trey Ragas run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
75.2%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+8
75.6%
Trey Ragas run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
75.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+12
75.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 12 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
75.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
75.6%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
78.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 11 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5175% → 79%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
74.9%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
74.8%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+79
79.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for no gain lat. to Earnest Patterson for 79 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
78.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 10 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
78.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Kendall JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
78.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 4 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+17
78.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 17 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
77.7%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
77.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+8
78.4%
Josh Adkins run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
78.1%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:3080% → 89%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
80.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Calif Gossett for 8 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+8
80.5%
Trey Ragas run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
80.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 16 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
81.0%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+7
81.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
89.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 31 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.6%
Christian Gibson run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
87.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
87.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
87.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+1
87.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 32 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:3089% → 94%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
89.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 9 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+13
89.6%
Raymond Calais run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
89.7%
Raymond Calais run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 44 LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal block (Earnest Patterson) to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+11
89.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 11 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+14
89.6%
Raymond Calais run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
89.7%
Raymond Calais run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
94.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 22 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:225% → 11%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.8%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
94.4%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
94.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
94.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 7 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
94.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason Huntley, broken up by Kris MoncriefSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
94.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+33
94.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 26 yds to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, roughing passer (7 Yards) to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
93.7%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.7%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13FG
16 plays · 78 yds · 5:2893% → 94%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
92.6%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 1
OWN 18
-1
92.6%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+27
92.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 27 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
93.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-7
92.9%
Andre Nunez sacked by Leon McQuaker and Roy Lopez for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+12
93.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 12 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
94.1%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+10
94.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 10 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
94.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 13 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
94.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
93.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 5 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-4
93.4%
Andre Nunez sacked by Myles Vigne and Roy Lopez for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
94.3%
Kyle Pfau 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
92.2%
Jason Huntley run for 18 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 4:297% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
92.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 14 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
92.8%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+9
92.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 9 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
92.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Christian Gibson, broken up by Chaiziere MalbrueSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
92.7%
Royce Caldwell run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+4
92.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 4 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
92.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by Deuce WallaceSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
92.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
92.0%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
92.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 1 yd to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+6
92.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason Huntley, broken up by Justin MiddletonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete, broken up by LaDarrius KiddSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
94.5%
Dylan Brown 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
95.8%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 4
50
+10
95.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 10 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
95.8%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-5
95.8%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Rico Robinson) to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
95.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
95.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
95.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:344% → 14%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
95.6%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
95.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+31
95.4%
Jason Huntley run for 31 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
95.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 5 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+18
95.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 18 yds to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
94.8%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
94.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Shea Holebrook Jr.Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+9
95.2%
Christian Gibson run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.7%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1691% → 98%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
91.3%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+8
91.1%
Trey Ragas run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+15
90.9%
Nunez,Andre sideline pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, PENALTY NMSU personal foul (Buford Jr., Ray) 15 yards to the NMSU33, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
91.4%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
91.3%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+31
98.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 31 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:223% → 10%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
97.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
97.4%
Josh Adkins sacked by Kris Moncrief for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 20
OWN 17
+32
97.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 17 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kendall Johnson) to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
97.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 31 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
96.8%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
97.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 5 yds to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+11
89.7%
Christian Gibson run for 11 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:5894% → 99%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
93.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+14
93.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 14 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
93.9%
Andre Nunez run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
93.8%
Andre Nunez run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+36
98.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 36 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
98.5%
Adkins, Josh middle pass incomplete to Caldwell, Royce, PENALTY LA pass interference (Solomon,Cameron) 10 yards to the LA47, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
98.5%
Josh Adkins sacked by Chaiziere Malbrue for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 40 Josh Adkins fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Andre Riley , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:2299% → 100%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
98.8%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+20
98.8%
Raymond Calais run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
98.8%
Raymond Calais run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+1
98.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23INT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Daijuane DorseySimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-6
99.9%
Josh Adkins sacked by Justin Middleton for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Corey Turner return for no gain to the LaLaf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24FUMBLE
12 plays · 71 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Jordan Wright run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
99.9%
Jordan Wright run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
99.9%
Jordan Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+7
99.9%
Jordan Wright run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+11
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 11 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.9%
Ashton Johnson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Ashton Johnson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+22
99.9%
Ashton Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Tymon Locklin) to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Jordan Wright run for no gain to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
99.9%
Jordan Wright run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+6
99.9%
Jordan Wright run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 4 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Javahn FergursonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
100.0%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:15
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q2 12:30
Elijah Mitchell run for 31 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q4 14:37
Christian Gibson run for 11 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
-8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com