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LIB

Liberty 41 at New Mexico State 49

NMSU
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:20 · Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds , B.J. Farrow returns for 7 yds to the Liber 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense+6.7Pregame prior−4.4Score differential+1.6Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:57: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 34 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +14.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:12: Stephen Calvert run for 5 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +16.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:04: Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 22 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +16.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:38: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 11 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +15.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:24: Stephen Calvert run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +12.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:43NMSU 4th & 16 at LIB 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:51LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:24NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:53LIB 4th & 14 at NMSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:52LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:14NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:44LIB 4th & 9 at NMSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:38LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:20NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−3.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:12NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:28LIB 4th & 15 at LIB 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:34LIB 4th & 5 at NMSU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:23NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:24LIB 4th & 1 at NMSU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−8.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:17LIB 4th & 8 at NMSU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:07NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 49, up 8
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:10LIB 4th & 20 at LIB 16, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:43LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:51NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:38NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:26NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:57LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:12LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:04NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:34NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:38LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:31NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:24LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 9:44NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 4:53LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1759% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
41.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
41.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+21
41.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 21 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
41.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 7 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
41.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
41.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 19 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
41.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 22 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
41.4%
Christian Gibson run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
41.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 7 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-5
41.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
41.5%
Josh Adkins run for 7 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
41.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 32 ydsSimilar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+10
41.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
41.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Bryce Roberts for no gain to the Liber 39Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
41.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 4 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-10
41.5%
Josh Adkins sacked by Tolen Avery for a loss of 10 yards to the Liber 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
40.9%
Peytton Pickett run for no gain to the Liber 13Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+19
40.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 19 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
40.6%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Shane Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 24 Stephen Calvert fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Roy Lopez , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:1142% → 45%
Q1 8:02
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+20
42.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 20 yds to the Liber 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Bryce RobertsSimilar
Q1 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
42.1%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the Liber 1Similar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
42.0%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the Liber 23Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.6%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd for a TD Dylan Brown kickoff for 3 yds for a touchback Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 28 Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 31 Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs Aidan Alves punt for 65 yds, downed at the NEWMEXST 4 LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 14 (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
43.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
43.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+55
44.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 65 yds, downed at the NEWMEXST 4 LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
44.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
44.2%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+7
43.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 7 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
44.3%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
44.1%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
43.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+15
43.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 54 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 15 yds to the Liber 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
44.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete, broken up by Jassavia ReeseSimilar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+18
44.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 18 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
43.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
43.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
43.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+5
43.6%
Peytton Pickett run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 15
OPP 40
0
43.8%
Peytton Pickett run for no gain to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 15
OPP 40
-4
44.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 19
OPP 44
+5
44.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing the kicker (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
44.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 25 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0946% → 46%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
45.9%
Josh Adkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
45.9%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+21
45.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 21 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
46.3%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
46.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+13
45.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 13 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
47.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 1 yd to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-5
47.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+5
46.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
46.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
45.6%
Payton Theisler punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
45.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 11 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
44.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
43.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 47Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
44.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
45.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
47.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Shea Holebrook Jr. for 10 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
48.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for no gain to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
47.9%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
47.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
46.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 19 yds, downed at the Liber 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0055% → 55%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
44.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+19
45.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
43.8%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
43.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
43.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
44.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:5148% → 60%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
47.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 23 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
49.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 9 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+15
50.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 15 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
51.1%
Christian Gibson run for 20 yds to the Liber 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
51.1%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
51.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for no gain to the Liber 10Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
60.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
57.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 14 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
55.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 4 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
55.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
55.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
57.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 41 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 1:1359% → 71%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
59.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
59.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tevis AbrahamSimilar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+32
58.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 32 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
61.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 11 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+41
62.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 41 yds to the Liber 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.9%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:2931% → 44%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie HicksonSimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
68.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Fidel Ogbeifun for 19 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
67.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for no gain to the Liber 44Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
67.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+7
72.1%
Stephen Calvert run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+15
70.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing the kicker (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
55.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 34 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:3761% → 62%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
61.9%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-15
60.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+4
61.2%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+7
61.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds , B.J. Farrow returns for 7 yds to the Liber 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
62.7%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Cedric Wilcots II and Jassavia Reese for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
63.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
61.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+60
60.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 56 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 60 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:3443% → 57%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
57.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-2
57.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to JT Wood for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+20
59.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to JT Wood for 20 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.6%
Stephen Calvert run for 5 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.5%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
50.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
49.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
48.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 36 yds, downed at the Liber 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
46.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
47.3%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 30Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
49.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie HicksonSimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
50.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 40 yds, downed at the NMxSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5151% → 72%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
51.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 14 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
53.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 7 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+7
54.8%
Royce Caldwell run for 7 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
54.8%
Royce Caldwell run for 5 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+15
54.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 15 yds to the Liber 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
71.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 22 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0035% → 39%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
65.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 20 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
63.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
63.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+7
62.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
61.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 6 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+53
61.2%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted DeMarcus Owens return for 53 yds to the Liber 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:0075% → 85%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
74.6%
LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jeremy Peters) to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
74.6%
Johnathan Boone run for no gain to the Liber 16Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
74.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tevis Abraham for 6 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
85.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
81.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
81.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 17 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
79.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
80.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+5
80.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Peytton Pickett for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
80.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 34 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
86.6%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
86.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 2 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
86.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Shea Holebrook Jr., broken up by TEAMSimilar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
85.4%
Payton Theisler punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 27TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:4516% → 34%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
84.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 13 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
83.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 25 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
81.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
81.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
65.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 11 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:5979% → 92%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
78.9%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+24
80.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 24 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
91.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 40 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 29TD
14 plays · 63 yds · 4:0213% → 25%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
87.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
86.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
86.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 11 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
85.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
85.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+5
86.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 5 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
85.3%
Peytton Pickett run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
85.3%
CALVERT, S. pass complete to JACKSON, J. for 4 yards to the NMSU10 (Nipp, Billy), PENALTY NMSU holding (Jackson, Shane) 7 yards to the NMSU7, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
85.3%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 14:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
86.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 4 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.6%
Stephen Calvert run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4082% → 94%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.0%
Christian Gibson run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
94.4%
Christian Gibson run for 66 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 31TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:519% → 15%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 10 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Fidel OgbeifunSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
89.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 8 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
89.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
89.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+18
89.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 18 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
89.0%
Peytton Pickett run for no gain to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-7
88.9%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Roy Lopez for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+9
90.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+27
95.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 27 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
94.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Peart PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 32PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 1:4093% → 95%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
92.5%
Christian Gibson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+3
92.9%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
92.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+21
92.3%
Josh Adkins run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
95.7%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
95.6%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
95.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
94.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by B.J. Farrow at the Liber 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 33END OF GAME
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
95.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Cedric Wilcots IISimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
95.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Peytton Pickett for 9 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+4
95.6%
Peytton Pickett run for 4 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
95.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Fidel OgbeifunSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-10
95.6%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Jassavia Reese for a loss of 10 yards to the Liber 16Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 20
OWN 16
0
95.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 20
OWN 16
-5
96.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by DeMarcus Owens for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, illegal forward pass (Stephen Calvert) to the Liber 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
95.6%
TEAM run for 6 yds to the Liber 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:12
Stephen Calvert run for 5 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)
-16.9
TD · Q3 9:04
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 22 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q3 0:38
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 11 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)
-15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com