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UNM

New Mexico 42 at New Mexico State 25

NMSU
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:34 · Payton Theisler punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 15 , Marcus Hayes returns for 25 yds to the NEWMEXST 36 NEW MEXICO Penalty, IB (30 Yards) to the NMex 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Home team on offense−2.4Pregame prior−7.6Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:40: Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +6.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:34: Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +8.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:19: Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +17.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:20: Ahmari Davis run for 16 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +11.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:06: Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 58 yds for a TD PENALTY NMSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY NM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY. (J. Adkins Run For Two-point Conversion) — NMSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:58UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50UNM 4th & 24 at NMSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:30NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 13, up 14
    Close callPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:53NMSU 4th & 6 at UNM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:40NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:27UNM 4th & 11 at NMSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:34NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:54UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−2.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 12 at UNM 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−0.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:26NMSU 4th & 5 at UNM 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−9.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:19NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:06UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−4.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:00NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:48UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−2.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:35UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:58NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:50NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:48UNM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:40UNM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:34UNM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:19UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:20UNM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:06NMSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:28UNM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0263% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
36.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
36.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+28
37.4%
Sheriron Jones pass intercepted for a TD Terrill Hanks return for 28 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.4%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.5%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
37.4%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Javahn Fergurson for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
37.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 33 yds, downed at the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:2839% → 42%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
38.9%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+13
39.0%
Matt Romero run for 3 yds to the NEWMEXST 48 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
39.0%
Jason Huntley run for 14 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
39.0%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+22
39.0%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 22 yds to the NMex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.7%
Matt Romero run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
41.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 20 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
40.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
40.9%
Daevon Vigilant run for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
40.9%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to LILLY, Elijah (Lomax, Shamad), PENALTY NMSU holding (Lomax, Shamad) 10 yards to the NMSU34, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
40.7%
Ahmari Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+3
41.0%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
40.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, intentional grounding (Sheriron Jones) to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 9
OPP 33
-15
40.9%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 15 yards to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 24
OPP 48
0
41.2%
Tyson Dyer punt for 43 yds, downed at the NMxSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
45.8%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+11
45.7%
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 11 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 14
-1
45.6%
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 2
OWN 13
+27
45.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 44 yds , Marcus Hayes returns for 27 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:3855% → 57%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
45.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
45.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+4
45.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
45.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.6%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:4245% → 48%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
44.6%
Royce Caldwell run for no gain to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+14
44.5%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 14 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
44.7%
Romero, Matt pass incomplete to Lottie, Izaiah, PENALTY NM pass interference (WILSON, Nic) 10 yards to the NMSU42, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
45.4%
Romero, Matt pass incomplete to Boone, J., PENALTY NM pass interference (ROGERS, De'Jean) 15 yards to the NM43, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
45.6%
Christian Gibson run for 6 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
45.6%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by De'John RogersSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+9
45.3%
Matt Romero pass complete to Anthony Muse for 9 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
45.7%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-1
45.6%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-5
45.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+10
44.8%
Matt Romero run for 10 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
48.1%
Dylan Brown 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:5352% → 51%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.1%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (DeShawnte Lloyd) to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
47.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
48.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
48.3%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Zahneer ShulerSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
48.5%
Zahneer Shuler run for 4 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+3
48.3%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Zahneer Shuler for 3 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
48.8%
Tyson Dyer punt for 45 yds, downed at the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
50.4%
Jason Huntley run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
50.5%
Matt Romero run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-2
50.6%
Matt Romero pass complete to Tevis Abraham for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+17
49.8%
Matt Romero pass intercepted D'Angelo Ross return for 17 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:5651% → 57%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
49.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
49.2%
Sheriron Jones run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
49.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.4%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
46.2%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
44.8%
Matt Romero sacked by Rhashaun Epting for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
43.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marcus Hayes at the NMex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
45.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 12 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
44.4%
Tyrone Owens run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+1
43.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
43.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
43.9%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-3
44.2%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Javahn Fergurson for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
46.6%
Tyson Dyer punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13INT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
48.6%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 9 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
49.9%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
48.9%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 34 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 18
OWN 24
+7
48.4%
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-5
48.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+28
48.3%
Matt Romero pass intercepted De'John Rogers return for 28 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:4255% → 64%
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
45.0%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
36.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
39.7%
Huntley, Jason rush for 6 yards to the NMSU31 (HAYES, Marcus), PENALTY NMSU holding (Trujillo, Brian) 10 yards to the NMSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+21
39.4%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Drew Dan for 6 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
40.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (Aaron Blackwell) to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+3
42.3%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
42.4%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-5
41.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
39.7%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+25
38.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 15 , Marcus Hayes returns for 25 yds to the NEWMEXST 36 NEW MEXICO Penalty, IB (30 Yards) to the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:1262% → 59%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-8
38.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (-8 Yards) to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 18
OWN 7
+3
38.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 15
OWN 10
0
38.4%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 10Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 15
OWN 10
0
40.5%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IV, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 15
OWN 10
+14
41.3%
Tyson Dyer punt for 47 yds , OJ Clark returns for 14 yds to the NMex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17INT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
44.0%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
43.8%
Jason Huntley run for 12 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
46.2%
Huntley, Jason rush for no gain to the NM31 (HORTON, Dylan;TOHI, Evahelotu), PENALTY NMSU holding (McClain, Isaac) 10 yards to the NM41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 20
OPP 41
0
42.3%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+1
42.3%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+39
41.2%
Nick Jeanty pass intercepted Bijon Parker return for 39 yds to the NMxSt 48 Bijon Parker fumbled, forced by Drew Dan, recovered by NMex Rhashaun EptingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18END OF HALF
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0964% → 65%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
35.6%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IV, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
36.1%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Delane Hart-Johnson, broken up by Komotay KoffieSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+22
34.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 22 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
40.1%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+32
39.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 32 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
43.4%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
45.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Jalin BurrellSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
43.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 35
-5
40.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
39.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
38.4%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
38.6%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 22 Tyrone Owens fumbled, forced by DeShawnte Lloyd, recovered by NMxSt Roy LopezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3545% → 42%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
45.3%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+3
45.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tevis Abraham for 3 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-3
43.3%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 17Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
41.7%
Dylan Brown 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 6:0761% → 81%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
38.6%
Ahmari Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 17Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
39.2%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Elijah Lilly, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+16
40.3%
Sheriron Jones run for 16 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
37.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+6
37.9%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 6 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+12
36.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Brayden Dickey for 12 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
35.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
34.8%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+1
36.3%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+14
36.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 14 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
34.4%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
34.4%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to LILLY, Elijah, PENALTY NMSU offside (Hanks, Terrill) 5 yards to the NMSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
34.4%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 3 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
35.7%
Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
34.4%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
34.4%
Ahmari Davis run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+4
35.7%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to SOMOYE, Anu, PENALTY NMSU offside 4 yards to the NMSU3, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
18.8%
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
21.5%
Royce Caldwell run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
21.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 1 yd to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
22.1%
Royce Caldwell run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-1
21.8%
Josh Adkins sacked by Rhashaun Epting and Everett Powell for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
20.6%
Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marcus Hayes at the NMex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 5:1879% → 96%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
21.4%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+13
21.4%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Brayden Dickey for 13 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
20.4%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Emmanuel Harris for 9 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
19.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
19.2%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
19.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Teton Saltes) to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+2
20.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+22
17.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 22 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
16.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
16.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
16.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
16.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
4.3%
Ahmari Davis run for 16 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:096% → 20%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
5.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 18 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
6.0%
Josh Adkins run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
6.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
19.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 58 yds for a TD PENALTY NMSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY NM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY. (J. Adkins Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.4%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
17.2%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
18.1%
JONES, Sheriron rush for 8 yards to the NM35, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NM holding (ESTRELLA, Chris) 10 yards to the NM17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+6
18.6%
Sheriron Jones run for 6 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+10
18.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 36 yds , OJ Clark returns for 10 yds to the NMex 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5217% → 13%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
17.2%
Josh Adkins run for 2 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-7
17.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the NEWMEXST 46 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 15
OWN 46
0
13.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Bijon ParkerSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
12.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Hayes at the NMex 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
13.9%
Zahneer Shuler run for 1 yd to the NMex 10Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+1
13.5%
Sheriron Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 11Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
14.3%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 8
OWN 11
+1
14.3%
Tyson Dyer punt for 42 yds , OJ Clark returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29INT
12 plays · 48 yds · 1:3814% → 15%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
13.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
13.3%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+12
13.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
14.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Anthony Muse for 27 yds to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
17.0%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
17.0%
Adkins, Josh pass incomplete to Dan, Drew, PENALTY NM pass interference (ROSS, D'Angelo) 1 yards to the NM2, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
15.4%
Huntley, Jason rush for 2 yards to the NM0, clock 04:27, PENALTY NMSU holding (Doxtater, Sage) 10 yards to the NM12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
15.1%
Josh Adkins run for 4 yds to the NMex 8Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
15.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason Huntley, broken up by Michael Sewell Jr.Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
13.5%
Huntley, Jason rush for 1 yard to the NM7 (TOHI, Evahelotu), PENALTY NM unsportsmanlike conduct (BLACKWELL, Aa.) 4 yards to the NM4, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
15.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+13
15.4%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted Marcus Hayes return for 8 yds to the NMex 0 NEW MEXICO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Erin Austin) to the NMex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5691% → 97%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
8.9%
Ahmari Davis run for 5 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+2
9.0%
Zahneer Shuler run for 2 yds to the NMex 11Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 3
OWN 11
0
6.0%
Ahmari Davis run for no gain to the NMex 11Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+2
3.3%
Tyson Dyer punt for 62 yds , OJ Clark returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31INT TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:527% → 2%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
6.6%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
6.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+14
6.2%
Jason Huntley run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
6.9%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+14
7.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 14 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
8.0%
Josh Adkins sacked by Rhashaun Epting for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+6
6.9%
Josh Adkins run for 6 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+60
2.1%
Josh Adkins pass intercepted for a TD Marcus Hayes return for 60 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 32Uncategorized
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
1.9%
Royce Caldwell run for no gain to the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:19
Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)
-17
TD · Q4 11:06
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 58 yds for a TD PENALTY NMSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY NM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY. (J. Adkins Run For Two-point Conversion)
+13.4
TD · Q4 12:20
Ahmari Davis run for 16 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com