Try the model
NMSU

New Mexico State 13 at Utah State 60

USU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Maverik Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:08 · Payton Theisler punt for 41 yds , Deven Thompkins returns for 2 yds to the UthSt 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 186Pregame prior+11.3Home team on offense+35.5Score differential+29.8Blowout margin+17.7Garbage-time factor+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:34: Johnathan Boone 18 Yd pass from Matt Romero (Dylan Brown Kick) — NMSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:46: Eltoro Allen 1 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick) — USU win probability +2.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:10: Dominik Eberle 21 Yd Field Goal — USU win probability +1.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:22: Jalen Greene 14 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick) — USU win probability +2.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:58: Deante Fortenberry 75 Yd Interception Return (Dominik Eberle Kick) — USU win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 4 at USU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59USU 4th & 6 at NMSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:47USU 4th & 5 at NMSU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:19NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:39USU 4th & 15 at NMSU 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:13NMSU 4th & 23 at USU 32, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:55NMSU 4th & 18 at NMSU 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:10USU 4th & 4 at NMSU 4, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:22NMSU 4th & 17 at NMSU 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00USU 4th & 21 at USU 14, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:08NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 41, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:05USU 4th & 8 at USU 17, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:30NMSU 4th & 1 at USU 45, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−1.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:32NMSU 4th & 14 at USU 14, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:45NMSU 4th & 12 at USU 15, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:08NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 20, down 44
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:58USU 4th & 10 at NMSU 34, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:20NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 20, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:41USU 4th & 9 at USU 39, up 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:34NMSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:19USU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:46USU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:22USU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:58USU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:36USU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:01USU Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.8%
Matt Romero pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
93.8%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
93.8%
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
93.8%
Matt Romero run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
93.8%
Matt Romero run for no gain to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
93.8%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Bryce RobertsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+6
93.8%
Matt Romero pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 6 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
93.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:1593% → 93%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
93.1%
Gerold Bright run for 7 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
93.1%
Jordan Love run for 4 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
93.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 5 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+18
93.2%
Gerold Bright run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
93.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 15 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
93.2%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-1
93.2%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
93.2%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
92.5%
Dominik Eberle 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.5%
Matt Romero sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 20 Matt Romero fumbled, recovered by UthSt Adewale Adeoye , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0693% → 93%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
92.6%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
92.6%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
92.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
92.6%
Dominik Eberle 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:138% → 10%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.5%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
92.5%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
92.5%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 11 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.4%
Christian Gibson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
92.3%
Christian Gibson run for 7 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
92.3%
Matt Romero pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 7 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+9
92.2%
Royce Caldwell run for 9 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
92.2%
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+5
92.1%
Royce Caldwell run for 5 yds to the UthSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
90.2%
Johnathan Boone 18 Yd pass from Matt Romero (Dylan Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.8%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
91.8%
Matt Romero pass complete to Tevis Abraham for 6 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
91.9%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
92.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 36 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 8 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:2192% → 91%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
92.0%
Darwin Thompson run for no gain to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
91.9%
LOVE, JORDAN pass incomplete to RAYMOND, DAX, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (LaForce, Ron) 15 yards to the NMSU41, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
92.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 9 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
92.1%
Darwin Thompson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
92.1%
Jordan Love sacked by Roy Lopez for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 17
OPP 36
-5
91.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 22
OPP 41
0
91.9%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 22
OPP 41
+7
91.7%
Darwin Thompson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+51
91.1%
Dominik Eberle 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q1 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
91.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:338% → 8%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
91.6%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+15
91.6%
Romero, Matt pass incomplete, QB hurry by BAKER, DALTON, PENALTY USU face mask (LOVE, JORDAN) 15 yards to the NMSU47, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.3%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-4
91.3%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
91.7%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 43
+2
91.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 44 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 2 yds to the UthSt 45 UTAH ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-8
91.0%
LOVE, JORDAN pass complete to TARVER, R. for 3 yards to the USU18 (Hanks, Terrill;Owens, DeMarcus), PENALTY USU pass interference (TERRELL, CARSON) 8 yards to the USU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 18
OWN 7
+9
91.0%
Darwin Thompson run for 9 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+8
91.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 8 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-5
90.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+7
90.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for 7 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
91.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Darwin ThompsonSimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-3
91.0%
Aaren Vaughns run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 23Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+6
90.8%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Shamad Lomax return for 6 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:0110% → 10%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
90.3%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+12
89.9%
Jason Huntley run for 12 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
89.9%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the UthSt 18Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
89.9%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 9
OPP 18
-14
90.0%
Matt Romero sacked by Chase Christiansen and David Woodward for a loss of 14 yards to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 23
OPP 32
+49
90.3%
Dylan Brown 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:1690% → 93%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
90.0%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
89.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 10 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
90.6%
Eltoro Allen run for 2 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
90.6%
Eltoro Allen run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 5
50
+6
90.4%
Eltoro Allen run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
90.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 15 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
90.8%
LOVE, JORDAN pass intercepted by Lomax, Shamad at the NMSU0, Lomax, Shamad return to the NMSU0, PENALTY NMSU personal foul 15 yards to the NMSU14, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
90.8%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+13
90.8%
Eltoro Allen run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.4%
Eltoro Allen 1 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:517% → 7%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.8%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
92.7%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-7
92.6%
Matt Romero sacked by David Woodward and Maika Magalei for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
92.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:0193% → 94%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
92.5%
Eltoro Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+27
92.5%
Gerold Bright run for 27 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
92.5%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
92.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion Tarver, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
92.3%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
94.1%
Dominik Eberle 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:487% → 7%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.2%
Matt Romero pass complete to Anthony Muse for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
92.9%
Royce Caldwell run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-3
92.8%
Matt Romero sacked by Tipa Galeai and Christopher 'Unga for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-7
93.6%
Matt Romero sacked by DJ Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 17
OWN 30
+35
93.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 46 , Jordan Nathan returns for 35 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:3095% → 98%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
95.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 36 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
95.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 5 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+6
95.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 6 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
97.9%
Jalen Greene 14 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Matt Romero pass intercepted Aaron Wade return for no gain to the UthSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
97.7%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.4%
Jordan Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
97.4%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
97.4%
Jordan Love sacked by DeShawnte Lloyd for a loss of 10 yards to the UthSt 14 Jordan Love fumbled, recovered by UthSt Roman Andrus , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
97.2%
Taylor Hintze punt for 49 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
97.0%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-2
96.9%
Matt Romero pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
97.0%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
97.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-8
97.6%
LOVE, JORDAN pass complete to THOMPSON, D. for 3 yards to the USU18 (Hanks, Terrill;Owens, DeMarcus), PENALTY USU holding (RAYMOND, DAX) 8 yards to the USU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 18
OWN 7
0
97.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 18
OWN 7
+9
97.6%
Darwin Thompson run for 9 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+1
97.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 1 yd to the UthSt 17Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+13
97.4%
Taylor Hintze punt for 50 yds , OJ Clark returns for 13 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22INT TD
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:323% → 0%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Matt Romero pass complete to Drew Dan for no gain to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+9
97.5%
Matt Romero pass complete to OJ Clark for 9 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
97.4%
Matt Romero run for 2 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
97.4%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+10
97.4%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 10 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+75
99.6%
Deante Fortenberry 75 Yd Interception Return (Dominik Eberle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:260% → 0%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.6%
Royce Caldwell run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, personal foul (Aaron Wade) to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
99.6%
Matt Romero pass complete to Drew Dan for 14 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.6%
Anthony Muse run for 3 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+4
99.6%
Royce Caldwell run for 4 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+33
99.6%
Matt Romero pass complete to Drew Dan for 33 yds to the UthSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
99.4%
Matt Romero run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 5Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
99.5%
Johnathan Boone run for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 14Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
99.6%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
99.6%
Dylan Brown 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Gerold Bright run for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.7%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 9 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 1
OWN 0
+51
99.8%
Gerold Bright 51 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25MISSED FG
17 plays · 50 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Jamin Smith) to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+3
99.8%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+5
99.8%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Tipa Galeai) to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+19
99.8%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 19 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Christian Gibson, broken up by Aaron WadeSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+10
99.8%
Christian Gibson run for 10 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.8%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
99.8%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+17
99.8%
Christian Gibson run for 17 yds to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
99.8%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 15Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 12
OPP 15
-5
99.8%
Romero, Matt pass complete to Lottie, Izaiah for 15 yards to the USU0, clock 00:01, PENALTY NMSU illegal shift 5 yards to the USU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+5
99.8%
Royce Caldwell run for 5 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Shaquez BondSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
99.8%
Dylan Brown 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
99.8%
THOMPSON, D. rush for 8 yards to the USU28 (LaForce, Ron), PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the USU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+3
99.8%
Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+19
99.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for 19 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
99.9%
Darwin Thompson run for 68 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Matt Romero pass intercepted Aaron Wade return for no gain to the UthSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
Justen Hervey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Justen Hervey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Henry Colombi sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for 0 yards to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+51
99.9%
Dominik Eberle 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
99.9%
Royce Caldwell run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+2
99.9%
Royce Caldwell run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 41 yds , Deven Thompkins returns for 2 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 7 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
99.9%
Tre Miller run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.9%
Tre Miller run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+3
99.9%
Tre Miller run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Henry Colombi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-2
99.9%
Morian Walker Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+2
99.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 2 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
99.9%
Dominik Eberle 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Royce Caldwell run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 31 Royce Caldwell fumbled, forced by Maika Magalei, recovered by UthSt Adewale AdeoyeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 32FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:32
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+17
99.9%
Morian Walker Jr. run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (11 Yards) to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
99.9%
Andrew Peasley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Morian Walker Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-2
99.9%
Andrew Peasley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 7 Andrew Peasley fumbled, forced by Billy Nipp, recovered by NMxSt Tymon LocklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 33PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Drew Dan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+2
100.0%
Christian Gibson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
100.0%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+1
100.0%
Christian Gibson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 42 yds, downed at the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 34PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
100.0%
Justen Hervey run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Justen Hervey run for no gain to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+4
100.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Devin Heckstall for 4 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Taylor Hintze punt for 46 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 35END OF GAME
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
100.0%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
100.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 1 yd to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+8
100.0%
Christian Gibson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:46
Eltoro Allen 1 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)
+2.7
TD · Q2 0:22
Jalen Greene 14 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick)
+2.7
TD · Q3 7:58
Deante Fortenberry 75 Yd Interception Return (Dominik Eberle Kick)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com