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WYO

Wyoming 29 at New Mexico State 7

NMSU
2018 · Week 1 · Aug 25, 2018 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreWYO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:08 · Tim Zaleski punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense−55.1Score differential−40.3Pregame prior−1.1Garbage-time factor−21.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:34: Nico Evans 24 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick) — WYO win probability +2.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 14:49: Cooper Rothe 36 Yd Field Goal — WYO win probability +2.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 10:48: Cooper Rothe 39 Yd Field Goal — WYO win probability +2.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:00: Matt Romero pass complete to Shea Holebrook Jr. for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26 — NMSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:13: Nico Evans 56 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick) — WYO win probability +10.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 12:54WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:11NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:46NMSU 4th & 18 at NMSU 17, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:48WYO 4th & 7 at NMSU 21, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−5.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:40NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:45WYO 4th & 5 at NMSU 47, up 15
    Close callPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:21NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 7, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:50WYO 4th & 8 at midfield, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:07WYO 4th & 4 at NMSU 44, up 15
    Close callPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.2%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:56NMSU 4th & 22 at NMSU 35, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−3.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:15WYO 4th & 1 at NMSU 38, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−3.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:25NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 11, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:07NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 42, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:59WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 36, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:07NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 24, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:05NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:08WYO 4th & 9 at NMSU 41, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:34WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:13WYO Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:07WYO Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:16NMSU Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WYODrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0166% → 65%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.3%
Nico Evans run for 1 yd to the Wyom 26Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
34.6%
Nico Evans run for 8 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
34.8%
Nico Evans run for no gain to the Wyom 34Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+17
35.2%
Tim Zaleski punt for 46 yds , OJ Clark returns for 17 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3435% → 36%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
35.3%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
35.6%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-3
35.7%
Matt Romero pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 5
OWN 42
-5
35.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
35.6%
Payton Theisler punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:3165% → 67%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
35.5%
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds to the Wyom 43Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
35.6%
Xazavian Valladay run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
35.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+5
35.8%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
35.7%
Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
36.0%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+10
36.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Nico Evans for 10 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
36.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 14 yds to the NMxSt 9 WYOMING Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 11
OPP 24
+24
33.5%
Nico Evans 24 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4SF
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:1534% → 34%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
34.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Xander Yarberough) to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 11
OWN 2
0
34.4%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 11
OWN 2
-2
34.4%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5FG
15 plays · 49 yds · 6:1166% → 70%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
33.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to John Okwoli for 7 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+12
33.6%
Nico Evans run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
33.4%
Nico Evans run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
33.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
33.2%
Jevon Bigelow run for no gain to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+10
33.4%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Fort for 10 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
32.9%
Nico Evans run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
32.9%
Nico Evans run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
32.8%
Jevon Bigelow run for no gain to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-15
32.4%
WYOMING Penalty, Personal Foul (Nico Evans) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 0
OPP 16
-11
32.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 4 yds to the NMxSt 16 WYOMING Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 0
OPP 31
+12
32.6%
Nico Evans run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 0
OPP 19
0
32.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Raghib Ismail Jr.Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+36
29.8%
Cooper Rothe 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5931% → 30%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
31.4%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-16
31.3%
Matt Romero sacked by Sidney Malauulu for a loss of 16 yards to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 27
OWN 8
+9
30.2%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 9 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
30.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7FG
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:4671% → 74%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+41
29.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Fort for 41 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
28.1%
Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+1
27.9%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
27.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Austin FortSimilar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+39
25.8%
Cooper Rothe 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0026% → 25%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.3%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
26.2%
Matt Romero run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
26.3%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
25.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 42 yds , Austin Conway returns for 7 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:5076% → 74%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
24.5%
Nico Evans run for 1 yd to the Wyom 36Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
27.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+12
27.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 12 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
26.1%
Nico Evans run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-3
25.3%
Nico Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
25.2%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Austin FortSimilar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
26.0%
Tim Zaleski punt for 35 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:1726% → 25%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
25.5%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
25.5%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
25.2%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 10
OWN 12
-5
25.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 15
OWN 7
0
25.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2375% → 76%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
25.0%
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-1
24.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 8
50
0
23.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Austin FortSimilar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 8
50
+7
24.2%
Tim Zaleski punt for 37 yds , Shamad Lomax returns for 7 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:5925% → 24%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-12
25.0%
Matt Romero sacked by Youhanna Ghaifan for a loss of 12 yards to the NMxSt 8 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 22
OWN 8
0
25.0%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 22
OWN 8
+1
24.9%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 1 yd to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 21
OWN 9
0
24.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 41 yds , Austin Conway returns for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2878% → 81%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
50
+8
22.0%
Nico Evans run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-2
19.6%
Nico Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
18.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Tyree MayfieldSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
19.5%
Tim Zaleski punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:5823% → 22%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
22.8%
Matt Romero pass complete to Shea Holebrook Jr. for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
23.0%
Matt Romero pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
22.6%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
22.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Drew Dan) to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-10
22.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 25
OWN 19
+5
22.0%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5421% → 20%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.3%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
21.1%
Matt Romero pass complete to Anthony Muse for 19 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-11
23.0%
Matt Romero sacked by Nick Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 21
OWN 36
+6
20.9%
Matt Romero run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-7
21.2%
Matt Romero sacked by Garrett Crall for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 22
OWN 35
+14
19.6%
Payton Theisler punt for 52 yds , Austin Conway returns for 14 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:3583% → 85%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
17.3%
Nico Evans run for 2 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
17.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Josh Harshman for 4 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
16.8%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to James PriceSimilar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+5
17.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Wyom 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
15.7%
Nico Evans run for 3 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+12
15.5%
Nico Evans run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
15.2%
Nico Evans run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
14.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
13.6%
Nico Evans run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
13.6%
Tyler Vander Waal run for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
14.6%
Tim Zaleski punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4217% → 16%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
16.6%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
16.3%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
16.0%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Tevis AbrahamSimilar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
15.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18TD
1 play · 56 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
5.1%
Nico Evans 56 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:576% → 6%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
6.1%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
6.3%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
6.2%
Matt Romero pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
6.3%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
6.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:0196% → 97%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
4.4%
Avante' Cox run for 7 yds to the Wyom 20Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 3
OWN 20
0
4.2%
Jevon Bigelow run for no gain to the Wyom 20Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+18
4.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 18 yds to the Wyom 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
3.7%
Jevon Bigelow run for 8 yds to the Wyom 46 WYOMING Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Wyom 31Similar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 17
OWN 31
0
3.6%
Jevon Bigelow run for no gain to the Wyom 31Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 17
OWN 31
0
3.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Josh HarshmanSimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+5
3.5%
Nico Evans run for 5 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
3.5%
Tim Zaleski punt for 36 yds, downed at the NMxSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:474% → 4%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
4.4%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
4.3%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Anthony Muse for 1 yd to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-5
4.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
4.1%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+3
4.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 50 yds , Austin Conway returns for 3 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 6:4897% → 100%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
3.0%
Nico Evans run for 10 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
2.7%
Nico Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 36Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+15
2.7%
Nico Evans run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
2.5%
Jevon Bigelow run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-1
2.4%
Jevon Bigelow run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+2
2.4%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
2.2%
Jevon Bigelow run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
2.1%
Jevon Bigelow run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+7
2.0%
Jevon Bigelow run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
1.3%
Jevon Bigelow run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
1.3%
Jevon Bigelow run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+23
0.3%
Jevon Bigelow 23 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Tevis AbrahamSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
0.3%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
0.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 56 yds , Austin Conway returns for 3 yds to the Wyom 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:47100% → 100%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
0.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 10 yds to the Wyom 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
0.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 6 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
0.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 5 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
0.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 4 yds to the Wyom 44Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
0.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the Wyom 44Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+14
0.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
0.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
0.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Josh HarshmanSimilar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Tim Zaleski punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 2:480% → 1%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
0.1%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+9
0.1%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 9 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+6
0.1%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
0.1%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 2 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+9
0.1%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 9 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
0.1%
Matt Romero run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
0.1%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+29
0.1%
Matt Romero pass complete to Drew Dan for 29 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
0.1%
Matt Romero pass complete to OJ Clark for 4 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
0.9%
Drew Dan 31 Yd pass from Matt Romero (Dylan Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the Wyom 26Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:13
Nico Evans 56 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)
-10.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:00
Matt Romero pass complete to Shea Holebrook Jr. for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26
+3.3
FG · Q2 14:49
Cooper Rothe 36 Yd Field Goal
-2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com