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BALL

Ball State 16 at Notre Dame 24

ND
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:16 · Nathan Snyder punt for 43 yds , Chris Finke returns for no gain to the NDame 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+40.3Home team on offense+1.5Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:14: Tony Jones Jr. run for 31 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +2.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:37: Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +2.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:01: Justin Yoon 46 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:01: Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for 10 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +7.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:30: Morgan Hagee 49 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +2.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 9BALL made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
  1. Q1 6:17BALL 4th & 7 at ND 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:17ND 4th & 9 at ND 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:14BALL 4th & 15 at BALL 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:27ND 4th & 9 at ND 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:20BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ND 4th & 8 at BALL 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:16ND 4th & 24 at BALL 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:16BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:29ND 4th & 8 at BALL 26, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:14BALL 4th & 9 at ND 40, down 11
    Close callPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:25BALL 4th & 7 at ND 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:30BALL 4th & 5 at ND 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:21ND 4th & 2 at ND 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:37BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 28, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:56BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:38ND 4th & 29 at ND 38, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:22BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 28, down 15
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:01ND 4th & 14 at BALL 29, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−1.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00BALL 4th & 1 at ND 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−3.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:54BALL 4th & 10 at ND 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:50BALL 4th & 11 at ND 28, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.4%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−1.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:50ND 4th & 8 at ND 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:30BALL 4th & 7 at ND 31, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.9%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:06ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:14ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:37ND Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:01BALL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:5498% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+27
97.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 27 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+42
97.5%
Jafar Armstrong run for 42 yds to the BalSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
97.5%
Jafar Armstrong run for 3 yds to the BalSt 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.5%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the BalSt 1Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FG
23 plays · 85 yds · 6:503% → 4%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
97.3%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+9
97.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 9 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to James GilbertSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+23
97.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 23 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
97.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+12
97.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 12 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.3%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
97.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+7
96.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 7 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
96.8%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
96.9%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+9
96.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 9 yds to the NDame 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
96.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
96.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+8
96.9%
Riley Neal run for 8 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
96.8%
Justin Hall run for 3 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
96.9%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 7Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
96.3%
Morgan Hagee 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
96.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 5 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-4
96.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
96.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
96.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
96.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-2
96.1%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-6
96.2%
Riley Neal sacked by Te'von Coney for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 15
OWN 29
+8
96.3%
Nathan Snyder punt for 42 yds , Chris Finke returns for 8 yds to the NDame 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
95.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-2
95.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
95.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
95.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
95.5%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
95.4%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-3
95.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Malik Dunner for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
95.6%
Nathan Snyder punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:3995% → 94%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
95.2%
Jafar Armstrong run for 11 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
95.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Cole Kmet for 18 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
95.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 9 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+1
95.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
95.2%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
95.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
95.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+23
94.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 23 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
95.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-6
95.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 16
-10
95.0%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Brandon Martin for a loss of 10 yards to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 24
OPP 26
+43
94.1%
Justin Yoon 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
94.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 4 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
94.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
94.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Nathan Snyder punt for 43 yds , Chris Finke returns for no gain to the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-9
94.1%
Jafar Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NDame 33 NOTRE DAME Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the NDame 18Similar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 19
OWN 18
0
94.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 19
OWN 18
+23
94.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 23 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
94.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+27
94.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 27 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
94.5%
Avery Davis run for 2 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
94.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Avery Davis, broken up by Jacob WhiteSimilar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
94.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 8
OPP 26
0
94.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
93.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+1
93.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+11
93.4%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Jalen Elliott return for 11 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
95.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 31 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
95.2%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-3
95.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+12
95.3%
Riley Neal run for 12 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
95.0%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
94.9%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
94.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to James GilbertSimilar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
95.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
95.3%
Riley Neal punt for 37 yds, downed at the NDame 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13INT
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+18
94.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 18 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
94.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass intercepted Josh Miller return for 18 yds to the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14FG
16 plays · 36 yds · 2:555% → 6%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
94.7%
Justin Hall run for 3 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
94.7%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
94.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin Hall, broken up by Nick ColemanSimilar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+8
95.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 8 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
94.5%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to GIVAN, Nolan, PENALTY BALL illegal formation (SLAVEN, Kaleb) 5 yards to the ND35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+13
94.8%
James Gilbert run for 13 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
94.4%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
94.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
94.5%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+11
94.8%
Riley Neal run for 11 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
94.4%
Danny Pinter run for 3 yds to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Antonio PhillipsSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q2 2:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
94.1%
Morgan Hagee 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0994% → 94%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
94.3%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Christian Albright for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 29 Brandon Wimbush fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+11
94.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 11 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+2
94.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+5
93.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 40 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 5 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
94.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
92.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
93.2%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+10
93.1%
Riley Neal run for 10 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
93.0%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
92.6%
Malik Dunner run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 44 BALL ST Penalty, IF ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+10
92.8%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Jalen Elliott return for 10 yds to the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:5594% → 96%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
93.7%
Brandon Wimbush run for 9 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+17
93.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 17 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
93.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 14 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
93.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+13
93.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 13 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.3%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
95.2%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
95.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 47 yds , Chris Finke returns for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20INT
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
95.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 26 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
96.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass intercepted Antonio Phillips return for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
95.2%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
95.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
95.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+3
95.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 43 yds , Chris Finke returns for 3 yds to the NDame 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+23
96.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 23 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
96.2%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 16
OPP 49
-6
96.1%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Chris Crumb for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 22
OWN 45
-5
95.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, false start (Robert Hainsey) to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 27
OWN 40
-2
95.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 29
OWN 38
0
95.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
95.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to James Gilbert, broken up by Khalid KareemSimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
95.4%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
95.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+4
95.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 38 yds , Chris Finke returns for 4 yds to the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:3097% → 97%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Jafar Armstrong run for no gain to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Alize MackSimilar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+18
96.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 18 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
96.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 19 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
96.9%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Jeremiah Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 14
OPP 29
0
96.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
96.7%
Brandon Wimbush run for no gain to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
97.4%
Justin Yoon 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:003% → 11%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
97.2%
Malik Dunner run for 12 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
97.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 18 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
97.0%
Malik Dunner run for 2 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+7
97.0%
Malik Dunner run for 7 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
96.9%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
97.2%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+8
96.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 8 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
96.8%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
96.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Troy Pride Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
97.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+3
97.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
96.8%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
89.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for 10 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26INT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.0%
Jafar Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
93.0%
Avery Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+20
92.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 20 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
93.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
93.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+3
93.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
93.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 5 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-1
93.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+5
93.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass intercepted Ray Wilborn return for 5 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27MISSED FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 3:497% → 5%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
93.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 8 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
92.5%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
92.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 1 yd to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
92.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+18
93.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 18 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
92.2%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
92.1%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
92.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Houston GriffithSimilar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+12
94.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 12 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
92.8%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
93.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Malik DunnerSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
93.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+46
94.6%
Morgan Hagee 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
95.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
95.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
95.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Alize Mack, broken up by Bryce CosbySimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
94.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 29FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:216% → 8%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
94.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 8 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
93.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Caleb Huntley for 3 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
93.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 9 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
93.5%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to LACANARIA, Corey for 36 yards to the ND1 (PRIDE JR, Troy), PENALTY BALL illegal touching (LACANARIA, Corey) 0 yards to the ND37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
93.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
93.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 5 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-2
93.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Caleb Huntley for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
94.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
92.0%
Morgan Hagee 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1698% → 98%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
97.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+5
97.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-2
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:01
Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for 10 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-7.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+2.5
TD · Q3 10:37
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com