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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadLAF aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreLAF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:33 · Connor Slomka run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lafay 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 4:41: John Abercrombie 25 yd FG GOOD — LAF win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Jeffrey Kordenbrock 43 yd FG GOOD — LAF win probability +0.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: LAF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:27: Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:47: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:40: Sean O'Malley pass complete to Will Eisler for 3 yds for a TD (Jeffrey Kordenbrock KICK) — LAF win probability +1.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: LAF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LAF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 4:41ARMY 4th & 8 at LAF 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.4%−<0.126% to convertField goalTheir call98.5%90% to makePunt98.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:41LAF 4th & 6 at LAF 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 2:22LAF 4th & 12 at ARMY 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call1.7%66% to makePunt1.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:19LAF 4th & 9 at ARMY 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 14:54LAF 4th & 1 at LAF 34, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 14:54LAF 4th & 13 at LAF 40, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q3 9:22LAF 4th & 9 at LAF 20, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LAF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:26ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:41ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:27ARMY Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:47ARMY Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:40LAF Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.3%97% to makeGo for two1.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARMYDrive 1FG19 plays · 67 yds · 10:1999% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.4%
Cam Thomas run for 3 yds to the Lafay 26 Cam Thomas fumbled, forced by Jack Lamb,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 4:41
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Jacob Bissell punt for 42 yds , Mike Reynolds returns for no gain to the Army 23 Mike Reynolds fumbled, recovered by Lafay Yasir Thomas , return for no gain to the Army 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 3FG4 plays · -2 yds · 1:151% → 2%
Q1 3:37
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
98.6%
Sean O'Malley pass complete to C.J. Amill for no gain to the Army 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5699% → 98%
LAFDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 0:002% → 2%
ARMYDrive 6TD12 plays · 94 yds · 6:3598% → 98%
Q2 7:16
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
97.8%
Cam Thomas run for 20 yds to the ARMY 40 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, illegal block (Christian Hayes) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+32
97.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Calen Holt for 32 yds to the Lafay 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
97.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lafay 8 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Army Kelvin Hopkins Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 7FG9 plays · 35 yds · 0:352% → 3%
Q2 0:18
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+11
97.6%
Sean O'Malley pass complete to Quinn Revere for 11 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 14:54
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+5
97.3%
Jacob Bissell punt blocked by Andy Davidson blocked by Andy Davidson Mike Reynolds return for 5 yds to the Lafay 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11TD12 plays · 77 yds · 6:2799% → 100%
Q3 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-5
98.6%
Davidson, Andy rush for 5 yards to the ARMY34 (Greenhill, H.;Barnett, Ryan), PENALTY ARMY illegal formation 5 yards to the ARMY24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+13
98.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Christian Hayes for 13 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
98.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Calen Holt, broken up by Jack LambSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 12TD13 plays · 75 yds · 7:070% → 2%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
99.6%
Sean O'Malley sacked by Edriece Patterson for a loss of 6 yards to the Lafay 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+6
99.5%
Sean O'Malley pass complete to C.J. Amill for 6 yds to the Lafay 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+23
99.6%
Sean O'Malley pass complete to C.J. Amill for 23 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+10
99.5%
Sean O'Malley pass complete to Mike Dunn for 10 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+19
99.5%
Sean O'Malley pass complete to Tim Payne for 19 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.8%
Sean O'Malley pass complete to Will Eisler for 3 yds for a TD (Jeffrey Kordenbrock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13END OF GAME16 plays · 59 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
98.7%
Hobbs, Artice rush for loss of 13 yards to the ARMY44 (Anderson, J.), PENALTY ARMY holding (Reeder, Peyton) 10 yards to the ARMY47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+8
98.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Glen Coates for 8 yds to the Lafay 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:40
Sean O'Malley pass complete to Will Eisler for 3 yds for a TD (Jeffrey Kordenbrock KICK)
-1.6
TD · Q3 9:27
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)
+1.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+1.3