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AF

Air Force 14 at Army 17

ARMY
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:41 · Nick Schrage punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense+2.7Pregame prior+10.8Garbage-time factor+1.0Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:03: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +11.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 5:27: Joseph Saucier run for 6 yds for a TD, (J. Saucier Run For Two-point Conversion) — AF win probability +26.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:27: Jake Koehnke kickoff for 50 yds , Kell Walker return for 5 yds to the Army 20 — ARMY win probability +7.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:02: Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Marcus Bennett — AF win probability +6.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:10: Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 42 — ARMY win probability +22.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at AF 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 16 at ARMY 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:41ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:02AF 4th & 2 at ARMY 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.2%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:50ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.1%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:53AF 4th & 4 at ARMY 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:53AF 4th & 14 at ARMY 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:56ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 29, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:30AF 4th & 10 at ARMY 31, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:49ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:44AF 4th & 1 at ARMY 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−2.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−9.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:35ARMY 4th & 3 at AF 13, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.8%−0.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−9.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:21ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−4.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:02AF 4th & 3 at ARMY 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−2.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−7.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:17ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.9%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:05ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:03ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:54AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:27AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    17.6%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1TD
25 plays · 75 yds · 12:5565% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
64.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
64.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
64.5%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+3
64.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
64.5%
Andy Davidson run for 13 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
64.5%
Hopkins Jr., K. rush for 2 yards to the AF37 (CAPRA, Micah), PENALTY ARMY illegal block (Deaton, Jaxson) 15 yards to the ARMY46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+14
64.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 14 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+2
64.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+13
64.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 13 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
64.5%
ARMY Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
64.5%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
64.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+9
64.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 9 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
64.5%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+5
64.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+3
64.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
64.5%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
64.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the AFA 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+3
64.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+2
64.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 0
OPP 7
-15
64.5%
Hopkins Jr., K. rush for 5 yards to the AF2 (FLOYD, Kyle;DONALDSON, Gran), PENALTY ARMY illegal block (Reeder, Peyton) 15 yards to the AF22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 0
OPP 22
+21
64.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 21 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:5733% → 32%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+29
66.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Joseph Saucier for 29 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
66.2%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-5
66.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 41Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-4
66.6%
Joseph Saucier run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 45
0
67.9%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 45
+17
68.4%
Jake Koehnke punt for 36 yds , Mike Reynolds returns for 17 yds to the Army 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
68.5%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the Army 27Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-2
68.4%
Kell Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 25Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
67.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
67.2%
Nick Schrage punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
68.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+15
67.9%
ARMY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (James Nachtigal) to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
67.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 9 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
67.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
66.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
66.9%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
67.6%
Jake Koehnke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Mike Reynolds at the Army 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 6:4769% → 80%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
69.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
69.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+2
68.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
69.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
69.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
68.8%
Jordan Asberry run for 7 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
69.5%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
70.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Army 39Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+3
69.9%
Cam Thomas run for 3 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+52
69.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 52 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
80.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6INT
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:1022% → 20%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.4%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
77.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
78.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 7 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+19
77.4%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 19 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
77.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+18
76.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 18 yds to the Army 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
76.1%
SANDERS, Isaiah rush for 2 yards to the ARMY12 (Christiansen, C), PENALTY AF illegal block (LAUFENBERG, Nol) 15 yards to the ARMY29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 25
OPP 29
+2
77.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 23
OPP 27
0
80.2%
Isaiah Sanders pass intercepted Mike Reynolds return for no gain to the Army 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
83.2%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 6Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 8
OWN 6
-1
83.1%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+31
81.9%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 31 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
80.2%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the Army 41Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+5
80.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 5 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
80.0%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Andrew SmithSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 4
OPP 36
-10
80.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds to the Army 31 AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Army 46Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
82.4%
Jake Koehnke punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
83.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Army 21Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
83.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
83.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
82.5%
Nick Schrage punt for 41 yds, downed at the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
83.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-2
83.0%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-5
84.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Scott Hattok) to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+17
84.6%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 17 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
82.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 13 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
82.1%
Dailen Sutton run for 3 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+9
82.1%
Joseph Saucier run for 9 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
81.3%
Joseph Saucier run for no gain to the Army 31Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
81.3%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud Sanders, broken up by Mike ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
82.5%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Kade WaguespackSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 10
OPP 31
0
83.5%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
88.0%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
87.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Army 34Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-4
87.4%
Jordan Asberry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 30Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
86.8%
Nick Schrage punt, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:5016% → 22%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
84.1%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
83.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+9
84.7%
Cole Fagan run for 9 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
83.6%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for 5 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
83.6%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
84.7%
Cole Fagan run for no gain to the Army 10Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
85.1%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
83.6%
Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 7:1985% → 91%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Glen Coates for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
85.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
86.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Army 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
86.0%
Kell Walker run for 5 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+8
85.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 8 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
86.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
86.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 7 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
85.9%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
86.6%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Mosese Fifita) to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
86.9%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
86.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+4
86.0%
Glen Coates run for 4 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
91.0%
John Abercrombie 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0810% → 41%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.1%
Donald Hammond III run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
88.3%
Joseph Saucier run for 5 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.7%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
88.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 11 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.9%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Andrew SmithSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
87.8%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Joseph SaucierSimilar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+9
88.7%
HAMMOND III, DJ pass incomplete to SANDERS, Geraud, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Reynolds, Mike) 9 yards to the ARMY44, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
87.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Cole Fagan for 30 yds to the Army 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
85.6%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the Army 11Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
85.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds to the Army 6Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
59.0%
Joseph Saucier run for 6 yds for a TD, (J. Saucier Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:5873% → 77%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
72.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
72.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
73.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Army 31Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
72.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Army 32Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
78.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+8
76.6%
Nick Schrage punt for 42 yds , Andrew Smith returns for 8 yds to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0030% → 33%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
69.8%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+19
70.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 19 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
64.6%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
64.6%
Joseph Saucier run for 5 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-2
63.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 40Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
67.5%
Donald Hammond III run for no gain to the Army 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:5390% → 95%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
89.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
91.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
91.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
95.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:27
Joseph Saucier run for 6 yds for a TD, (J. Saucier Run For Two-point Conversion)
-26.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:10
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 42
+22.3
TD · Q2 4:03
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Abercrombie KICK)
+11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com