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ARMY

Army 52 at San José State 3

SJSU
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Levi's Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:00 · Bryce Crawford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mike Reynolds at the Army 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Home team on offense−57.3Pregame prior−3.3Score differential−44.6Garbage-time factor−15.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:53: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 41 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +3.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:12: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +6.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:06: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 24 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +7.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:39: John Abercrombie 33 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:18: Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:50SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:39ARMY 4th & 7 at SJSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    84.4%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14SJSU 4th & 13 at ARMY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:54SJSU 4th & 5 at ARMY 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:12ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:28SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 32, down 4
    Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:26ARMY 4th & 1 at SJSU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−1.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:45ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.2%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:39ARMY 4th & 7 at SJSU 16, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:43SJSU 4th & 11 at SJSU 44, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:05ARMY 4th & 4 at SJSU 28, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:00SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 30, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 14:53ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:12ARMY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:06ARMY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:18ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:44ARMY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:05ARMY Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:1016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
16.1%
Montel Aaron pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
16.2%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 8 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
16.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 36Similar
Q1 14:50
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+16
16.2%
Bryce Crawford punt for 38 yds , Mike Reynolds returns for 16 yds to the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5783% → 82%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
16.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+11
16.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 11 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
16.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
16.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+2
17.6%
Luke Langdon run for 2 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
17.7%
Zach Potter punt for 20 yds, downed at the SJSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3FG
16 plays · 46 yds · 6:3718% → 22%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
18.2%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Leki Nunn for 7 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+1
18.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+7
18.1%
Montel Aaron run for 7 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
18.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 11 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
19.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
19.4%
Montel Aaron run for 7 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
20.1%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Leki Nunn, broken up by James GibsonSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
20.2%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 9 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 1
OPP 30
-5
20.1%
AARON, Montel pass complete to COTTRELL, Thai for 19 yards to the ARMY11, PENALTY SJSU ineligible downfield on pass (COLMAN, Jake) 5 yards to the ARMY35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-5
20.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 40Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+11
20.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 11 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
21.2%
AARON, Montel pass complete to WALKER, Tre for 25 yards to the ARMY4 (McClinton, J.), PENALTY SJSU ineligible downfield on pass (HOPPE, Kyle) 5 yards to the ARMY34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+5
21.0%
Thai Cottrell run for 5 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
21.2%
Malike Roberson run for no gain to the Army 29Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-3
21.8%
Montel Aaron sacked by James Nachtigal for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 32Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+49
22.2%
Bryce Crawford 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2177% → 79%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
22.3%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 27Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
23.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
23.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
22.9%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
23.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Army 38Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+13
24.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kell Walker for 13 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
24.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
24.2%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+41
21.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 41 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:5322% → 24%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
22.2%
Montel Aaron pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
22.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 15 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
22.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+11
23.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 11 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
24.3%
Montel Aaron sacked by James Nachtigal for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 48Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
24.1%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 49Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+7
23.1%
Montel Aaron run for 7 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
24.0%
Brian Papazian punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Mike Reynolds at the Army 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:2377% → 75%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
23.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+3
23.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+5
23.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Army 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
24.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
24.0%
Calen Holt run for 2 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
24.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Calen HoltSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
25.1%
Nick Schrage punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3724% → 24%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
24.3%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
24.2%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre Hartley, broken up by Elijah RileySimilar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+10
23.5%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 10 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+18
23.9%
Bryce Crawford punt for 43 yds , Mike Reynolds returns for 18 yds to the Army 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
16 plays · 57 yds · 6:2277% → 85%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
23.4%
Kell Walker run for 4 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
23.3%
Kell Walker run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 3
50
+10
23.3%
Kell Walker run for 10 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
23.5%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
23.5%
Kell Walker run for 4 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+3
23.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+16
24.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Jesse Osuna) to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
21.6%
Kell Walker run for 8 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+3
21.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
21.1%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 2 yds to the SJSt 2Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
17.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5482% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.9%
Jordan Asberry run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
17.6%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
17.9%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
17.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
17.0%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Jaxson Deaton) to the Army 33Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+4
17.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
17.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 7 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
17.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
16.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 7 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
16.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
15.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 15 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
7.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 24 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
9.6%
Montel Aaron sacked by Kenneth Brinson for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 19 Montel Aaron fumbled, recovered by Army Chandler Ramirez , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2293% → 95%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
7.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the SJSt 19Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
7.2%
Kell Walker run for 3 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
7.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Camden HarrisonSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
4.8%
John Abercrombie 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · -15 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
5.8%
Michael Carrillo sacked by Cameron Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 10 Michael Carrillo fumbled, recovered by Army Wunmi Oyetuga , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:1296% → 99%
Q3 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
4.1%
Walker, Kell rush for loss of 1 yard to the SJSU11, out-of-bounds (ZIGLER, Zamore;PARKER, Tysyn), PENALTY SJSU holding (ROBERTS, Boogie) 5 yards to the SJSU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
4.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
1.6%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 17 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
1.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-7
1.6%
Michael Carrillo sacked by James Nachtigal for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 35 Michael Carrillo fumbled, recovered by Army Raymond Wright , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3199% → 100%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
1.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Kell Walker, broken up by Tre WebbSimilar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
1.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+9
1.5%
Jordan Asberry run for 9 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
1.3%
Connor Slomka run for 7 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+1
1.1%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the SJSt 13Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+4
1.2%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the SJSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
1.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17FUMBLE TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
0.4%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Walker for 9 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+7
0.4%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 7 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
0.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
0.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+52
0.2%
Montel Aaron run for 6 yds Montel Aaron fumbled, forced by Max Regan, recovered by Army James Nachtigal , return for 52 yds (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
0.2%
Brendan Manigo run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 16Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
0.2%
Brendan Manigo run for no gain to the SJSt 16Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+18
0.2%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Malike Roberson for 18 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
0.2%
Malike Roberson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 14
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Malike Roberson run for no gain to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+15
0.2%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Leki Nunn for 15 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
0.2%
Thai Cottrell run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
0.2%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Leki NunnSimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+2
0.1%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Leki Nunn for 2 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Bryce Crawford punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:59100% → 100%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
0.2%
Luke Langdon run for 21 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
0.2%
Cam Thomas run for 13 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
0.2%
Cam Thomas run for 3 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+3
0.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+6
0.2%
Luke Langdon run for 6 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
0.2%
Cam Thomas run for 4 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
0.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+1
0.2%
Luke Langdon run for 1 yd to the SJSt 28Similar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+28
0.2%
Cam Thomas run for 28 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
0.1%
Brendan Manigo run for 2 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
0.1%
Brendan Manigo run for 3 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+1
0.1%
Brendan Manigo run for 1 yd to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Bryce Crawford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mike Reynolds at the Army 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
0.1%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
0.1%
Cam Thomas run for 5 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-5
0.1%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 35Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+8
0.2%
Malik Hancock run for 8 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
0.1%
Markens Pierre run for 4 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Alexander) to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
0.1%
Cam Thomas run for 5 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+16
0.1%
Cam Thomas run for 16 yds to the SJSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:06
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 24 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)
-7.7
TD · Q2 0:12
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)
-6.4
TD · Q2 14:53
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 41 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)
-3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com