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ARMY

Army 42 at Buffalo 13

BUF
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:52 · Evan Finegan punt for 57 yds, downed at the Army 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense−11.6Pregame prior+10.9Score differential−6.0Garbage-time factor−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:53: Connor Slomka run for 3 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +12.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. MISSED FG · Q2 4:05: Adam Mitcheson 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Wunmi Oyetuga Elijah Riley return for 80 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +14.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:55: Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +13.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:49: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 25 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +23.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:17: Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +8.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:03BUF 4th & 14 at ARMY 26, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:05BUF 4th & 8 at ARMY 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−7.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:52BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 35, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:05ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.8%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 15 at ARMY 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:55ARMY 4th & 1 at BUF 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−2.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−9.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:44BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 30, down 15
    Close callPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:17ARMY 4th & 1 at BUF 2, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−7.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:10BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 31, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:57BUF 4th & 16 at BUF 32, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:49BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:12ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:53ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:55BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:49ARMY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:17ARMY Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:57ARMY Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:1170% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
69.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+22
69.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
69.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+53
70.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 53 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
70.0%
Kell Walker run for 13 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
70.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+8
70.0%
Kell Walker run for 8 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.9%
Fred Cooper run for no gain to the Army 38Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
69.9%
Jordan Asberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 37Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
70.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass intercepted Brandon Williams return for no gain to the Army 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3DOWNS
14 plays · 22 yds · 2:3971% → 71%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
71.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
70.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+7
70.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
71.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
71.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Kenneth BrinsonSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+1
70.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Army 37Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+15
70.5%
FINEGAN, Evan punt 37 yards to the ARMY0, touchback, PENALTY ARMY roughing the kicker (27) 15 yards to the ARMY22, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
71.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the Army 16 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Army 26Similar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 14
OPP 26
0
71.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 14
OPP 26
0
71.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Elijah RileySimilar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 14
OPP 26
0
71.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 14
OPP 26
0
70.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 5:4429% → 35%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
70.9%
Connor Slomka run for 6 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+6
70.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
70.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
70.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+10
70.4%
Connor Slomka run for 10 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
70.2%
Jordan Asberry run for 2 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
70.2%
Jordan Asberry run for no gain to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+32
70.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Calen Holt for 22 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
69.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
69.9%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.2%
Calen Holt run for 5 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0667% → 66%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
67.3%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+3
67.5%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
67.0%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
66.1%
Evan Finegan punt for 63 yds, downed at the Army 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 6:5534% → 49%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
66.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+5
65.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+5
65.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+37
65.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 37 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
63.7%
Jordan Asberry run for 7 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+2
63.7%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
64.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
63.7%
Calen Holt run for 1 yd to the Buff 15Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+7
63.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
64.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
63.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
51.3%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7MISSED FG TD
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:4155% → 44%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
55.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+21
55.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 21 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
57.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+1
57.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
57.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 11 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
58.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
58.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 8 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
58.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Mike ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
58.7%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Army 11Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
57.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie Jones, broken up by Cole ChristiansenSimilar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+80
43.5%
Adam Mitcheson 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Wunmi Oyetuga Elijah Riley return for 80 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0842% → 41%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
41.8%
Isaiah King run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+6
41.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 6 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
41.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 5 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
40.7%
Evan Finegan punt for 57 yds, downed at the Army 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9END OF HALF
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3561% → 62%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
39.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+6
39.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+1
39.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Army 17Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+3
39.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
38.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-2
38.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. sacked by Chuck Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 22 ARMY Penalty, intentional grounding (Kelvin Hopkins Jr.) to the Army 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
35.8%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-11
36.3%
Kell Walker run for a loss of 11 yards to the Army 20Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
37.6%
Nick Schrage punt for 67 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 5:0234% → 48%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
34.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
34.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 5 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+4
34.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
34.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+15
34.6%
[PSTL], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to OSBORN, K.J., PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Gibson, James) 15 yards to the UB45, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
36.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 16 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
36.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+32
37.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 32 yds to the Army 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
37.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
37.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 4Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
36.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 8Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
31.8%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to OSBORN, K.J., PENALTY ARMY pass interference (McClinton, J.) 6 yards to the ARMY2, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
34.2%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Army 1Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.1%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0661% → 85%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.3%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
39.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
38.8%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
38.2%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Roy Baker) to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
36.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 10 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
36.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
35.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+3
36.7%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
38.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
14.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 25 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
20.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
20.1%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
20.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
20.3%
Evan Finegan punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 7:4485% → 99%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
15.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-12
15.1%
Holt, Calen rush for 5 yards to the ARMY30 (COLLIER, Jordan;PATTERSON, Jame), PENALTY ARMY personal foul (58) 12 yards to the ARMY13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+7
15.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kjetil Cline for 7 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+10
15.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 10 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
10.7%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+17
10.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
9.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 8 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+20
9.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan Collier) to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
9.5%
Connor Slomka run for 7 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+4
9.5%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
9.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
9.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
9.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 2Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
1.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
2.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-5
2.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Tyler Mabry) to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
2.5%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 12
OWN 31
0
2.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
2.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:5299% → 100%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
1.2%
Zach Potter run for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
1.2%
Luke Langdon run for 4 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+27
0.2%
Luke Langdon run for 27 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
0.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-15
0.2%
[SGUN], HAWKINS, Johnat rush for no gain to the UB40, out-of-bounds (Lowery, J.), PENALTY UB personal foul (JACK-KURDYLA, T) 15 yards to the UB25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 23
OWN 25
-5
0.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 28
OWN 20
+12
0.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 12 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+33
0.2%
Evan Finegan punt for 33 yds, downed at the BUFFALO 35 ARMY Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18END OF GAME
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.2%
Max Regan run for 6 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
0.1%
Connor Slomka run for 5 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
0.1%
Zach Potter run for 6 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+7
0.1%
Max Regan run for 7 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
0.1%
Zach Potter run for 6 yds to the Buff 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:49
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 25 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)
-23.9
MISSED FG · Q2 4:05
Adam Mitcheson 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Wunmi Oyetuga Elijah Riley return for 80 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q3 7:55
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)
+13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com