Try the model
LIB

Liberty 14 at Army 38

ARMY
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Michie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:41 · Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Liber 6 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense+26.0Pregame prior+3.6Score differential+13.2Garbage-time factor+11.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:27: Darnell Woolfolk run for 26 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK) — ARMY win probability +4.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:40: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Christian Hayes for 44 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK) — ARMY win probability +7.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:05: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 28 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +7.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:39: Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 28 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +10.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:47: Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK) — ARMY win probability +9.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ARMY 4th & 21 at ARMY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43LIB 4th & 9 at ARMY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:00LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00LIB 4th & 15 at ARMY 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:54ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:53LIB 4th & 4 at ARMY 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−1.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:55ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:29LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.8%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:40ARMY 4th & 1 at LIB 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.8%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:05ARMY 4th & 9 at midfield, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:39ARMY 4th & 4 at LIB 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:44LIB 4th & 13 at ARMY 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−1.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:41ARMY 4th & 1 at LIB 8, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−1.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:13ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 49, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:11ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:27ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:40ARMY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:05LIB Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:39LIB Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:47ARMY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:13ARMY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.5%
Kentory Matthews run for 6 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
68.5%
Kentory Matthews run for 7 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
68.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Fidel Ogbeifun for 13 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
68.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Fidel Ogbeifun for 5 yds Fidel Ogbeifun fumbled, forced by Jaylon McClinton, recovered by Army Jaylon McClintonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 5 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
68.5%
ARMY Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Army 28Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
68.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
68.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
68.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 10 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
68.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+6
68.5%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-12
68.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 38 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Army 47Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 22
OWN 47
-1
68.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 46
+2
68.5%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 48
0
68.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 48
0
68.5%
Zach Potter punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
67.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 10 yds to the Liber 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
67.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 7 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
67.4%
Peytton Pickett run for 4 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
67.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 13 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
67.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the Army 47Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
67.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Elijah RileySimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
67.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Chandler RamirezSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
67.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 4:0967% → 72%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
67.3%
Fred Cooper run for 3 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+10
67.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 10 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
67.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 11 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
67.9%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
68.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+5
67.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
68.1%
Fred Cooper run for 18 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
71.8%
Calen Holt run for 25 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
70.6%
Peytton Pickett run for 7 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
70.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Elijah RileySimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
70.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+22
71.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 37 yds for a 1ST down , Mike Reynolds returns for 22 yds to the ARMY 47 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, targeting (15 Yards) to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:4372% → 77%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
71.8%
Kell Walker run for 5 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+26
76.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 26 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:2725% → 24%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
74.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 18 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
74.4%
Damian King run for 3 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, personal foul (James Nachtigal) to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
74.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
74.0%
Stephen Calvert sacked by James Gibson for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 44Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 15
OPP 44
0
74.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
75.7%
Aaron Peart punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Mike Reynolds at the Army 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
76.6%
Fred Cooper run for 4 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
76.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+5
76.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.7%
Fred Cooper run for no gain to the Army 26Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-12
76.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 29 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Army 14Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 22
OWN 14
+7
76.6%
Andy Davidson run for 7 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+6
76.2%
Kell Walker run for 6 yds to the Army 27 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
75.9%
Nick Schrage punt for 50 yds, downed at the Liber 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0023% → 24%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-12
77.0%
Kevin Shaa run for a loss of 12 yards to the Liber 11Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 22
OWN 11
+12
77.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 12 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+14
77.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 14 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.7%
Kentory Matthews run for no gain to the Liber 37Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
76.8%
CALVERT, S. pass incomplete to GANDY-GOLDEN,A., PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Riley, Elijah) 15 yards to the ARMY48, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
76.0%
Kentory Matthews run for 6 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
75.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
76.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden LIBERTY Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
76.5%
Aaron Peart punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
79.1%
Fred Cooper run for 14 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
79.9%
Calen Holt run for 2 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
79.8%
Kell Walker run for 3 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
79.4%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+5
78.7%
Nick Schrage punt for 35 yds , B.J. Farrow returns for 5 yds to the Liber 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
79.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 7 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+5
79.2%
Kentory Matthews run for 5 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
79.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Elijah RileySimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
79.4%
Kentory Matthews run for 6 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+3
79.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 3 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
79.4%
Peytton Pickett run for no gain to the Liber 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12FG
15 plays · 19 yds · 3:2982% → 87%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-12
82.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 40 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Army 45Similar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 22
OWN 45
+15
81.9%
Fred Cooper run for 15 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+4
82.1%
Fred Cooper run for 4 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+6
81.6%
Calen Holt run for 6 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
82.2%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
82.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Liber 26Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+5
82.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+4
83.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
85.0%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 3 yds to the Liber 14 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Liber 24Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 17
OPP 24
0
85.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 17
OPP 24
0
84.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Kell WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 24
+42
86.8%
Landon Salyers 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2086% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
86.3%
Calen Holt run for 22 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
86.9%
Fred Cooper run for 9 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+44
94.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Christian Hayes for 44 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:288% → 15%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+50
92.3%
Kentory Matthews run for 50 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
84.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 28 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
87.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
87.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Army 39Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+1
87.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Army 40Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+9
86.9%
Calen Holt run for 9 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
87.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
87.6%
Kell Walker run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 9
50
0
87.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 9
50
0
86.2%
Zach Potter punt for 35 yds, downed at the Liber 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 3:5011% → 23%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
89.2%
Kentory Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 14Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
89.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+12
89.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kentory Matthews for 12 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
89.1%
Damian King run for 3 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
88.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+8
89.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 8 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
88.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+21
89.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 21 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
87.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 5 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
87.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+9
88.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kentory Matthews for 9 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
77.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 28 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
82.5%
Connor Slomka run for 16 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
83.5%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
83.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
82.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the Liber 48Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
81.8%
Zach Potter punt for 28 yds, fair catch by B.J. Farrow at the Liber 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
82.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 18 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
81.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 21 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
79.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. Farrow, broken up by Mike ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
79.9%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (Damian King) to the Army 46Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 15
OPP 46
0
81.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Damian KingSimilar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+2
82.2%
Kentory Matthews run for 2 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
83.2%
Aaron Peart punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:1685% → 97%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
84.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 18 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
85.7%
Kell Walker run for 8 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
86.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
86.7%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 1 yd to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
86.6%
Kell Walker run for 7 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+8
86.1%
Connor Slomka run for 8 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
87.0%
Connor Slomka run for 22 yds to the Liber 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
87.0%
Connor Slomka run for no gain to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 0
+6
87.8%
Calen Holt run for 8 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, targeting (-2 Yards) to the Liber 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted Jaylon McClinton return for no gain to the Army 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:2897% → 99%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
96.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kell Walker for 17 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
96.8%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+15
96.8%
Fred Cooper run for 15 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
96.8%
Fred Cooper run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 18Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+6
96.8%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 6 yds to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+4
96.8%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+2
96.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Liber 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
96.8%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Liber 2Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.3%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 19 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs, broken up by Kenneth BrinsonSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-6
99.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Peytton Pickett for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 38Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 16
OWN 38
-10
99.3%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Raymond Wright for a loss of 10 yards to the Liber 28Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 26
OWN 28
-5
99.3%
LIBERTY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Liber 23Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 31
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Aaron Peart punt for 31 yds, downed at the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
99.3%
Luke Langdon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 43Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+6
99.2%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 6 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
99.3%
Luke Langdon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
99.2%
Zach Potter punt for 39 yds, fair catch by B.J. Farrow at the Liber 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
99.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+9
99.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 9 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+62
99.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 62 yds Damian King fumbled, forced by Chris Skyers, recovered by Army Cameron Jones , return for 33 yds to the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25Uncategorized
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.7%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
99.7%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:39
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 28 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Aaron Peart KICK)
-10.8
TD · Q4 11:47
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q3 13:05
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 28 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com