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LIB

Liberty 59 at Massachusetts 62

MASS
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:30 · George Georgopoulos punt for 35 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for no gain to the Liber 16 DJ Stubbs fumbled, recovered by Liber DJ Stubbs
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 89Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.6Time remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:00: Marquis Young run for 4 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK) — MASS win probability +18.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:15: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +24.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:22: Frank Boyd run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +22.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:01: Frank Boyd run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +19.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:25: Marquis Young run for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK) — MASS win probability +44.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00LIB 4th & 16 at LIB 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:32MASS 4th & 15 at LIB 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:25LIB 4th & 10 at MASS 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:15LIB 4th & 4 at MASS 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−5.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:15MASS 4th & 15 at LIB 31, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.5%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:30MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:31LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:52LIB 4th & 13 at MASS 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:53MASS 4th & 18 at LIB 25, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.1 ptsWent for it · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%−3.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−9.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:00LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−2.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−2.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:01MASS 4th & 12 at LIB 38, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%
    38% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:57LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:46MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.5%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:12MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:03LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:00MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:00LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:55MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:00MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:15LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:22LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:01LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:42MASS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−1.8
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:25MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−6.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
50.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+5
50.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kentory Matthews for 5 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
50.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 13 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
50.7%
CALVERT, Stephen pass incomplete, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (RODGERS, Isaiah) 6 yards to the LIBERTY39, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
50.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete, broken up by Bryton BarrSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
50.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
-7
50.7%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Chinedu Ogbonna for a loss of 7 yards to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 33
0
50.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
51.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 10 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
51.3%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 3 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
51.4%
Ross Comis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+17
51.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Zak Simon for 17 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
51.5%
Ross Comis run for no gain to the Liber 42Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
51.5%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-7
51.4%
Ross Comis sacked by Solomon Ajayi and Austin Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the Liber 47Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
51.1%
Travis Reynolds punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
51.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Khaleb Coleman for 23 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
51.1%
Kentory Matthews run for 8 yds to the UMass 45 Kentory Matthews fumbled, forced by Jarell Addo, recovered by Liber Khaleb Coleman for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
51.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
51.0%
Peytton Pickett run for no gain to the UMass 45Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
51.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs, broken up by Isaiah RodgersSimilar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
51.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 34 yds, downed at the UMass 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
54.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 89 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:0945% → 49%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+32
54.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 32 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
54.0%
Peytton Pickett run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 42Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+27
54.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 27 yds to the UMass 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
53.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
53.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
51.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 15 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:0352% → 59%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
52.3%
Marquis Young run for 10 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
53.0%
Marquis Young run for 26 yds to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-11
53.5%
Ross Comis sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 11 yards to the Liber 40Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 21
OPP 40
+23
52.9%
Jordan Fredericks run for 23 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
53.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Jordan Fredericks for 4 yds to the Liber 13Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+6
53.8%
Ross Comis run for 6 yds to the Liber 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
58.5%
Ross Comis run for 7 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:0044% → 51%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
56.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 8 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-5
55.6%
HICKSON, Frankie rush for no gain to the LIBERTY43, PENALTY LIBERTY illegal motion 5 yards to the LIBERTY38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+15
56.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 15 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
55.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 15 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
54.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 21 yds to the UMass 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
49.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 0:5953% → 59%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
52.7%
Ross Comis pass complete to Jordan Fredericks for 11 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
53.0%
Jordan Fredericks run for 6 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+61
59.1%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 61 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:4043% → 46%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
57.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kentory Matthews for 8 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+8
56.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 8 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
56.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kentory MatthewsSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
56.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
56.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
56.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+32
56.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 32 yds to the UMass 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
55.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
55.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the UMass 4Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
53.9%
Alex Probert 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10DOWNS
14 plays · 35 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
56.5%
Brennon Dingle run for 28 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
58.6%
Ross Comis run for 4 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+6
58.6%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
58.7%
Ross Comis run for 8 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 29
-5
58.8%
YOUNG, Marquis rush for 1 yard to the LIBERTY28 (BOYD, Frank), PENALTY UMASS illegal shift (EMILUS, Samuel) 5 yards to the LIBERTY34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-5
58.8%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Andy Isabella) to the Liber 39Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+5
58.3%
Ross Comis run for 5 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+8
58.0%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 8 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
58.8%
Ross Comis run for 6 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+2
58.8%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
58.1%
Ross Comis run for 1 yd to the Liber 17 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-14
57.3%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Zak Simon) to the Liber 31Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 15
OPP 31
-9
55.5%
Ross Comis sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:0645% → 46%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
54.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
54.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
50
+21
53.8%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted for a TD Lee Moses return for 15 yds for a TD Lee Moses fumbled, recovered by Liber Khaleb Coleman , return for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.5%
Jordan Fredericks run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
47.3%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Bejour WilsonSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+19
46.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Jordan Fredericks for 19 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
50.1%
Ross Comis pass complete to Zak Simon for 4 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-3
50.4%
Jordan Fredericks run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
47.6%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
46.7%
George Georgopoulos punt for 35 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for no gain to the Liber 16 DJ Stubbs fumbled, recovered by Liber DJ StubbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
46.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+1
46.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 19Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
47.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
48.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 1:0047% → 59%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
47.0%
Ross Comis pass complete to Marquis Young for 9 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+17
49.5%
Ross Comis pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 17 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
50.5%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
50.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 10 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
51.8%
Ross Comis run for 1 yd to the Liber 32Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+21
52.0%
Ross Comis pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 21 yds to the Liber 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+28
58.8%
Cooper Garcia 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UMass 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
57.0%
Ross Comis pass intercepted Solomon Ajayi return for 6 yds to the Liber 47 LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive holding (Isaac Steele) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
55.3%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
57.0%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Brandon TillmonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
55.5%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 5 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0052% → 48%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
50
+2
47.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+9
48.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 9 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
47.9%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+1
49.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the UMass 42Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
50.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
52.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:5255% → 53%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
54.5%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the UMass 19Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+6
54.7%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
54.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 58 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
59.6%
Jordan Fredericks run for 3 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-11
59.6%
Ross Comis sacked by Tolen Avery for a loss of 11 yards to the Liber 25Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 18
OPP 25
0
56.2%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Sadiq PalmerSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 18
OPP 25
0
53.3%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Josiah JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0049% → 53%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.2%
Frank Boyd run for 9 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
48.9%
Frank Boyd run for 3 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.6%
Frank Boyd run for no gain to the Liber 37Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
50.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Khaleb Coleman, broken up by Lee MosesSimilar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+19
52.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 19 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
47.0%
Peytton Pickett run for no gain to the UMass 44Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+34
47.2%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted Isaiah Rodgers return for 34 yds to the UMass 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:3956% → 78%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
55.5%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+48
56.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 48 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
60.8%
Marquis Young run for 5 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
60.8%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the Liber 9Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
59.2%
COMIS, Ross pass incomplete to FREDERICKS, Jordan, PENALTY LIBERTY roughing passer (PETERS, Jeremy) 5 yards to the LIBERTY4, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.1%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
71.0%
Frank Boyd run for 12 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
69.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kentory Matthews for no gain to the Liber 31Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
70.9%
Frank Boyd run for 1 yd to the Liber 32Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
72.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
73.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 61 yds, downed at the UMass 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0678% → 78%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
77.6%
Jordan Fredericks run for 3 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+1
78.1%
Jordan Fredericks run for 1 yd to the UMass 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
78.8%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Zak Simon, broken up by Jeremy PetersSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
77.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 34 yds, downed at the UMass 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:3030% → 57%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
69.6%
Frank Boyd run for 17 yds to the UMass 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
66.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+14
67.8%
CALVERT, Stephen pass incomplete, PENALTY UMASS roughing passer (PATTON, Mario) 14 yards to the UMASS14, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
43.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+21
55.3%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 21 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
57.8%
Andy Isabella run for 1 yd to the UMass 39Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-4
57.6%
Ross Comis sacked by Juwan Wells and Devin Pearson for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 35Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-5
53.2%
Ross Comis sacked by Solomon Ajayi and Tolen Avery for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 30Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 18
OWN 30
-15
51.7%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Jake Largay) to the UMass 15Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 33
OWN 15
0
51.7%
George Georgopoulos punt for 27 yds, downed at the UMass 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:4055% → 80%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
45.2%
Frank Boyd run for 11 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+25
43.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 25 yds to the UMass 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
42.7%
Frank Boyd run for 5 yds to the UMass 1Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.8%
Frank Boyd run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.1%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
26.8%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 4 Marquis Young fumbled, forced by Isaac Steele, recovered by Liber Solomon Ajayi , return for 19 yds to the UMass 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.9%
Frank Boyd run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 27TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:1912% → 30%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
12.4%
Ross Comis run for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 36 Ross Comis fumbled, recovered by UMass Ross Comis for a 1ST down , return for 16 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
13.1%
Ross Comis pass complete to Kyle Horn for 9 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+9
14.2%
Marquis Young run for 9 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
14.4%
Ross Comis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
14.1%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Marquis Young, broken up by Austin LewisSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-5
13.8%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Larnel Coleman) to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 12
OPP 38
+27
13.1%
Ross Comis pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 27 yds to the Liber 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
15.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Marquis Young for 5 yds to the Liber 6Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+10
12.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Kyle Horn for 10 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+5
13.8%
COMIS, Ross pass complete to HORN, Kyle for no gain to the LIBERTY41, PENALTY LIBERTY substitution infraction 5 yards to the LIBERTY36, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
14.4%
Ross Comis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
14.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Marquis Young for 7 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+1
14.8%
Ross Comis run for 1 yd to the Liber 28Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-10
14.7%
COMIS, Ross pass complete to ISABELLA, Andy for 13 yards to the LIBERTY15, PENALTY UMASS holding (THOMAS-ISHMAN, Ray) 10 yards to the LIBERTY38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
29.8%
Ross Comis run for 6 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:4582% → 87%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
18.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 8 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+3
17.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
17.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
15.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-9
16.0%
Stephen Calvert run for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 34 Stephen Calvert fumbled, recovered by Liber Stephen CalvertSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+4
13.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 45 yds , Andy Isabella returns for 4 yds to the UMass 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 29TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:2120% → 68%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
19.8%
Ross Comis sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 21Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
19.0%
COMIS, Ross pass complete to EMILUS, Samuel for 6 yards to the UMASS27 (JACKSON, Corbin), PENALTY UMASS illegal shift 5 yards to the UMASS16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
19.0%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Sadiq Palmer, broken up by Corbin JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+15
17.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 15 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
18.4%
Ross Comis pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 15 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
23.3%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+20
21.6%
Marquis Young run for 20 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
27.5%
Ross Comis pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 5 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+13
28.1%
Marquis Young run for 13 yds to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
23.8%
Marquis Young run for 7 yds to the Liber 9Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
68.2%
Marquis Young run for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 30INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:2250% → 56%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
49.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
50.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+16
53.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to JT Wood for 16 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
44.1%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted Brice McAllister return for 4 yds to the UMass 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 31TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
40.5%
Frank Boyd run for 7 yds to the UMass 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-1
40.5%
Frank Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+3
43.0%
Stephen Calvert run for 3 yds to the UMass 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
47.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
40.5%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 15Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+13
41.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 13 yds to the UMass 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 32INT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
40.5%
Frank Boyd run for 7 yds to the UMass 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
40.5%
Frank Boyd run for no gain to the UMass 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
42.7%
Frank Boyd run for 2 yds to the UMass 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
47.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 19
0
40.8%
HICKSON, Frankie rush for 1 yard to the UMASS13 (BARR, Bryton), PENALTY LIBERTY false start 5 yards to the UMASS19, NO PLAY. Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the UMass 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 19
0
42.3%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted, touchback. Jarell Addo return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 33FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0065% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
64.7%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the Liber 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
64.7%
Ross Comis run for 6 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
64.7%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the Liber 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+4
64.7%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the Liber 8Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
62.3%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the Liber 6Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+22
59.4%
Cooper Garcia 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:25
Marquis Young run for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)
+44.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+40.6
TD · Q4 14:15
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)
-24.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com