Try the model
MASS

Massachusetts 42 at Ohio 58

OHIO
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Peden Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+4.3OHIO 83.4%Louie Zervos 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 35 - HOME 45 · Q3 7:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:06 · Louie Zervos 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Pregame prior+9.7Home team on offense+12.4Score differential+1.7Garbage-time factor+6.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:02: Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 4 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK) — MASS win probability +13.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:05: Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 14 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +8.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:16: A.J. Ouellette run for 49 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +8.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:57: Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 55 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK) — MASS win probability +11.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:40: Maleek Irons run for 6 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +9.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 2:07MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 8, up 7
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:36MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:49MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:49MASS 4th & 8 at OHIO 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:06OHIO 4th & 7 at MASS 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−6.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:03MASS 4th & 6 at OHIO 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00MASS 4th & 19 at OHIO 40, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:15OHIO 4th & 5 at MASS 5, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:05OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 25, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:26OHIO 4th & 8 at MASS 8, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:03MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 36, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:19MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:11MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:23OHIO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:28MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 2:07OHIO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 13:36OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 7:52OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 2:02MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:05OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 12:16OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 11:57MASS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 2:40OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 8:05MASS Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4125% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
75.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 7 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
75.5%
Marquis Young run for 14 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
75.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 4 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+6
75.5%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
74.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 39 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2INT TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:0275% → 73%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
74.6%
Nathan Rourke run for 9 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 1
OWN 24
-4
74.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 20Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+28
74.6%
Nathan Rourke run for 28 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+55
72.7%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted for a TD Isaiah Rodgers return for 55 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:3973% → 72%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
72.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 41Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
72.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 15 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the UMass 44Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
72.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 45Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+23
72.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 23 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
72.7%
Maleek Irons run for 4 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-1
72.7%
Maleek Irons run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 19Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
71.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 19 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 0:4930% → 34%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
70.3%
Jordan Fredericks run for 5 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+27
70.1%
Ross Comis pass complete to Kyle Horn for 12 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
65.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 37 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:0867% → 70%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
67.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 10 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
67.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
67.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 6 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+34
67.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 34 yds to the UMass 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
68.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew MeyerSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+13
68.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 13 yds to the UMass 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.7%
Nathan Rourke run for 2 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
68.0%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 3Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 3
-2
68.0%
YOUNG, Marquis rush for 11 yards to the UMASS14 (OGUN-SEMORE, A.), PENALTY UMASS holding 2 yards to the UMASS1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
68.0%
Marquis Young run for 7 yds to the UMass 8Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 3
OWN 8
0
68.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Sadiq Palmer, broken up by Evan CroutchSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
68.7%
George Georgopoulos punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the UMass 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:3868% → 73%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
68.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
68.0%
Nathan Rourke run for 10 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
68.6%
Nathan Rourke run for 6 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+12
68.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 12 yds to the UMass 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
73.4%
Maleek Irons run for 16 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.7%
Jordan Fredericks run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 24Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
70.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Kyle Horn for 5 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
71.0%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
71.5%
George Georgopoulos punt for 49 yds , Papi White returns for no gain to the Ohio 29 OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Ohio 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 4:3371% → 79%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+23
71.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 23 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
71.6%
Maleek Irons run for 23 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.9%
Maleek Irons run for no gain to the UMass 42Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
72.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd to the UMass 41Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+10
72.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 10 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
73.3%
Maleek Irons run for 22 yds to the UMass 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
73.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Joe Lowery for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 12Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
78.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 12 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10TD
21 plays · 90 yds · 5:4523% → 38%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
76.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 11 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
76.6%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
76.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 5 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+10
76.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 10 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
75.8%
Marquis Young run for 9 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
74.7%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 47Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-2
76.2%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+5
78.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
50
+10
76.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 10 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.5%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Samuel EmilusSimilar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
76.6%
Ross Comis run for 2 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
76.7%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Samuel EmilusSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+8
78.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 8 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
75.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 22 yds to the Ohio 8 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
75.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 4 yds to the Ohio 4Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
61.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 4 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 1:5269% → 81%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
69.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 13 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
69.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 1 yd to the Ohio 36Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+20
69.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 20 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
72.0%
ROURKE, N. pass complete to MEYER, A. for 8 yards to the UMASS36 (HUNT, Chris), PENALTY UMASS substitution infraction 5 yards to the UMASS39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 5
OPP 39
0
72.1%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew MeyerSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+9
72.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to DL Knock for 9 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
73.1%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron Odom, broken up by Lee MosesSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
73.0%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Isaiah RodgersSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+16
71.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 16 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
80.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 14 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:3878% → 87%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
77.6%
Nathan Rourke run for 18 yds to the Ohio 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
78.0%
ROURKE, N. rush for loss of 13 yards to the OHIO20 (BYCZKO, Jake;INGRAM, Tyshaun), PENALTY UMASS holding 10 yards to the OHIO43, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
79.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the Ohio 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
78.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Connor Brown for 8 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+49
87.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 49 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
75.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 55 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:4478% → 83%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
77.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 11 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
78.1%
Nathan Rourke run for 6 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
79.3%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd to the Ohio 37Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+41
78.5%
Maleek Irons run for 41 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
80.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 2 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-4
80.4%
Nathan Rourke run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 24Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+5
79.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 5 yds to the UMass 19Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
83.4%
Louie Zervos 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
82.5%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
82.8%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Sadiq Palmer, broken up by Kylan NelsonSimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+36
83.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Zak Simon for 36 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
80.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Zak Simon for 3 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
79.1%
Ross Comis run for 1 yd to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
80.8%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Jordan Fredericks, broken up by Kent BergerSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
82.1%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Kylan NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 2:2784% → 95%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+27
84.1%
Maleek Irons run for 27 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
85.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Maleek Irons for 7 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+15
85.5%
Nathan Rourke run for 15 yds to the UMass 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
85.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 12 yds to the UMass 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.6%
Maleek Irons run for 6 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 26 yds · 2:347% → 5%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
93.4%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
93.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+9
93.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 9 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
93.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 8 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
92.9%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 1
50
+1
93.2%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
93.2%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Zak Simon for 18 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
92.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jordan Fredericks for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 34
0
93.7%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Evan CroutchSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 34
-6
94.2%
Andrew Ford sacked by Kent Berger for a loss of 6 yards to the Ohio 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OPP 40
-5
94.7%
Andrew Ford sacked by Amos Ogun-Semore and Sam McKnight for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:0396% → 99%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.8%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Isaiah RodgersSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
95.7%
ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to KNOCK, D., PENALTY UMASS holding 10 yards to the UMASS45, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
95.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Connor Brown for 31 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
95.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 7 yds to the UMass 7Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+6
95.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds to the UMass 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the UMass 1Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.8%
Nathan Rourke run for no gain to the UMass 1Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
95.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 5Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
98.7%
Louie Zervos 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:041% → 9%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
98.8%
Jordan Fredericks run for 6 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
98.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 3 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
98.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 6 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
98.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 16 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
98.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 20 yds to the Ohio 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
90.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 19 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Nathan Rourke run for no gain to the Ohio 25Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Ryan LuehrmanSimilar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Michael Farkas punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
92.5%
FORD, Andrew pass complete to SIMON, Zak for 15 yards to the OHIO45, out-of-bounds (FOX, J.), PENALTY UMASS holding 10 yards to the UMASS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 20
OWN 30
0
93.5%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 30Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+26
93.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 26 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
92.2%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
92.1%
Andrew Ford pass intercepted Javon Hagan return for 2 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 2:5796% → 98%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
96.0%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
96.3%
Nathan Rourke run for 14 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
96.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 14 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
96.4%
IRONS, M. rush for 15 yards to the UMASS14 (MANGRAM, Martin), PENALTY OHIO holding 10 yards to the UMASS39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+30
96.3%
Nathan Rourke run for 30 yds to the UMass 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
97.9%
Maleek Irons run for 5 yds to the UMass 4Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.0%
Maleek Irons run for no gain to the UMass 4Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
98.1%
Maleek Irons run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 8Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
98.2%
Louie Zervos 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:231% → 1%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Travis Reynolds for 6 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
99.3%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Marlin BrooksSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-6
99.1%
Ross Comis sacked by Marlin Brooks for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 36 Ross Comis fumbled, recovered by UMass Lukas Kolter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
99.2%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Samuel EmilusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25Uncategorized
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 38Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 12
OPP 38
-1
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 39Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 13
OPP 39
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:02
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 4 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)
-13
TD · Q3 11:57
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 55 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q3 2:40
Maleek Irons run for 6 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com