2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:43 · Kyle Corbett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:51: Michael Curtis run for 3 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK) — MASS win probability +4.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:37: Benny LeMay run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +8.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:05: Michael Curtis pass complete to Jessie Britt for 29 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK) — MASS win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Jonathan Cruz 33 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +4.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:52: Michael Curtis run for 2 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK) — MASS win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CLT made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
- Q1 14:47CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 33, down 7Close callWent for it · 33.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.9%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt33.0%average punt
- Q1 11:46CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snapGo for it30.0%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.1%average punt
- Q1 8:51CLT 4th & 15 at CLT 45, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snapGo for it21.4%−1.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%average punt
- Q1 4:44MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 27, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snapGo for it81.1%−0.933% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q1 3:29CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 36, down 28Close callPunted · 14.8% before the snapGo for it15.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 10:43MASS 4th & 3 at CLT 3, up 28Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.8%44% to convertField goalTheir call90.5%−1.393% to makePunt83.8%−8.0average punt
- Q2 10:43CLT 4th & 11 at CLT 19, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.925% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q2 8:07MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 33, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.0%−1.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.5%average punt
- Q2 0:00CLT 4th & 5 at MASS 16, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call4.0%81% to makePunt1.9%−2.1average punt
- Q3 15:00CLT 4th & 1 at MASS 48, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.3%−1.0average punt
- Q3 5:50MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 26, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.1%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q3 4:16CLT 4th & 12 at MASS 30, down 25Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−0.423% to convertField goal1.8%56% to makePunt1.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 11:31MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 33, up 25Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:04CLT 4th & 4 at MASS 28, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.148% to convertField goal0.6%60% to makePunt0.1%−0.5average punt
- Q4 3:25CLT 4th & 4 at MASS 17, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.247% to convertField goal0.5%80% to makePunt0.1%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 12:47MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.4%97% to makeGo for two68.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:46MASS Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:51MASS Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.0%97% to makeGo for two79.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:37CLT Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.9%97% to makeGo for two9.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:05MASS Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:52MASS Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:50CLT Touchdown, down 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.8%97% to makeGo for two1.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:52MASS Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:31CLT Touchdown, down 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%−0.197% to makeGo for two0.7%45% to convert
- Q4 0:22CLT Touchdown, down 19 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two1.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 2DOWNS5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 14:47
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
64.9%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor Tucker, broken up by Lee MosesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3TD2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0866% → 66%
CLTDrive 4FUMBLE3 plays · -11 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
MASSDrive 5TD2 plays · 14 yds · 0:1067% → 68%
CLTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
67.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 1 yd to the Charl 28Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+5
67.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 5 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+25
67.8%
Kyle Corbett punt for 34 yds , Andy Isabella returns for 25 yds to the Charl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7TD3 plays · 40 yds · 0:4071% → 75%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+37
71.0%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 37 yds to the Charl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Benny LeMay for 7 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+18
75.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-4
75.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Benny LeMay for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
CLTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 3:29
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
84.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Aaron McAllister for no gain to the Charl 31Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+5
84.4%
REYNOLDS, Chris sacked for loss of 3 yards to the CHA28 (Ogbonna, Chinedu), fumble by REYNOLDS, Chris recovered by UMASS TEAM at CHA25, PENALTY UMASS offside defense (Flanagan, Jr., Leon) 5 yards to the CHA36, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11MISSED FG15 plays · 73 yds · 5:3886% → 91%
Q1 1:21
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+16
86.0%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Taylor Edwards for 16 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
89.1%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 3 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+22
89.1%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 22 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
89.2%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 7 yds to the Charl 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+14
88.3%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Marquis Young for 14 yds to the Charl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
91.3%
Fredericks, Jordan rush for 2 yards to the CHA0, clock 11:41, PENALTY UMASS illegal formation 5 yards to the CHA7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
90.9%
Michael Curtis pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Ed RolleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
MASSDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5393% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14TD9 plays · 62 yds · 3:146% → 14%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
50
0
93.3%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor Tucker, broken up by Lee MosesSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+14
92.8%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass incomplete to PHILLIPS, Chris, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (HAYES, Tyler) 14 yards to the UMASS27, 1ST DOWN CHA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
92.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 26 yds to the UMass 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15TD15 plays · 75 yds · 3:3291% → 98%
Q2 4:37
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+10
91.2%
CURTIS, Michael pass incomplete to ISABELLA, Andy (IRVIN, Denzel), PENALTY CHA holding (IRVIN, Denzel) 10 yards to the CHA46, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+4
93.7%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Marquis Young for 4 yds to the Charl 43Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
94.2%
CURTIS, Michael pass complete to ISABELLA, Andy for 27 yards to the CHA0, clock 01:29, PENALTY UMASS ineligible downfield on pass (REYNOLDS, Travis) 5 yards to the CHA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+29
97.9%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Jessie Britt for 29 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16FG10 plays · 54 yds · 1:052% → 8%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
97.9%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass incomplete to TUCKER, Victor (RODGERS, Isaiah), PENALTY UMASS roughing passer (Flanagan, Jr., Leon) 15 yards to the UMASS21, 1ST DOWN CHA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
97.6%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor Tucker, broken up by Isaiah RodgersSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
97.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 5 yds to the UMass 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17DOWNS8 plays · 34 yds · 0:007% → 7%
MASSDrive 18TD7 plays · 52 yds · 3:0797% → 99%
Q3 10:59
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+25
97.2%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 25 yds to the Charl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
97.1%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Jessie Britt for 4 yds to the Charl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
97.2%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 13 yds to the Charl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19TD7 plays · 72 yds · 2:022% → 3%
Q3 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
98.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Juwan Foggie for 12 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
98.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to R.J. Tyler for 18 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
98.0%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass incomplete to TYLER, R.J., PENALTY UMASS pass interference (McAllister, Brice) 15 yards to the UMASS16, 1ST DOWN CHA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
96.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to R.J. Tyler for 16 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
CLTDrive 21DOWNS7 plays · 18 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+29
97.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 29 yds to the UMass 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 4
OPP 22
-8
97.6%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Jake Byczko and Joe Previte for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 30Similar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 12
OPP 30
-20
97.8%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Jake Byczko and Martin Mangram for a loss of 20 yards to the 50 yard line CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22TD2 plays · 50 yds · 0:2799% → 100%
CLTDrive 23TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:210% → 1%
Q4 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Chris Reynolds run for no gain to the Charl 31 Chris Reynolds fumbled, recovered by Charl Chris ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+46
99.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 46 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Chris Phillips for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.4%
Travis Reynolds punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mark Quattlebaum at the Charl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25DOWNS7 plays · 32 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:04
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+12
99.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Calvin Camp for 12 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
99.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 13 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 4
OPP 28
-8
99.4%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Bryton Barr for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26FUMBLE5 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:05
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+4
99.7%
Jordan Fredericks run for 4 yds to the Charl 42 Jordan Fredericks fumbled, forced by Ben DeLuca, recovered by Charl Tyriq Harris , return for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27TD10 plays · 58 yds · 3:030% → 2%
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+24
99.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Juwan Foggie for 24 yds to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+7
99.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Rico Arnold for 7 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+8
99.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 8 yds to the UMass 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 9 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 28Uncategorized2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:37
Benny LeMay run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q1 8:51
Michael Curtis run for 3 yds for a TD (Cooper Garcia KICK)
+4
FG · Q2 0:00
Jonathan Cruz 33 yd FG GOOD
-4