2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Matthew Trickett punt for 50 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 12 yds to the PnSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:09: Trace McSorley run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:35: MCFADDEN, C. kickoff 45 yards to the PSU20, out-of-bounds, PENALTY KENT offside (MCFADDEN, C.) 5 yards to the KENT30, NO PLAY. — PSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:04: Trace McSorley run for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:05: Mark Allen run for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:42: Ricky Slade run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5KENT made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 9:41KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q1 5:07KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q1 1:09PSU 4th & 1 at KENT 2, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.3%60% to convertField goal96.2%−0.294% to makePunt95.7%−0.7average punt
- Q2 15:00KENT 4th & 13 at KENT 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 13:44PSU 4th & 1 at KENT 40, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%70% to convertField goal96.5%−0.534% to makePunt96.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:44PSU 4th & 22 at KENT 39, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.38% to convertField goal96.7%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call96.7%average punt
- Q2 10:29KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q2 8:16PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 42, up 14Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:55KENT 4th & 12 at PSU 37, down 14Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.124% to convertField goal4.0%40% to makePuntTheir call4.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:35KENT 4th & 7 at PSU 7, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call4.4%91% to makePunt3.3%−1.0average punt
- Q3 15:00KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 19, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q3 9:59KENT 4th & 15 at KENT 22, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 7:36KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 24, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 2:37KENT 4th & 26 at KENT 36, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00PSU 4th & 7 at KENT 33, up 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%37% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.149% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:16KENT 4th & 12 at midfield, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:55KENT 4th & 3 at PSU 40, down 46Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call-0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:51PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:43KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.9%97% to makeGo for two2.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:07PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:09PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:04PSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:05PSU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:42PSU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:37PSU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:55PSU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:09PSU Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPSUDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0998% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
98.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 19 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
98.2%
McSorley, Trace pass complete to Hamler, KJ for 56 yards to the KENT0, clock 14:22, PENALTY PSU holding (Menet, Michael) 10 yards to the PSU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+12
98.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 12 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 14:22
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+15
98.2%
Gillikin, Blake punt 33 yards to the KENT22, fair catch by TYSON, ZAQUON, PENALTY KENT personal foul (PHILLIPS, C.) 15 yards to the KENT40, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
98.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 40 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2TD16 plays · 75 yds · 3:082% → 2%
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
PENN ST Penalty, offside defense (Shareef Miller) to the KntSt 30Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
98.0%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Kavious Price for 4 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
98.0%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 5 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
98.0%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Kavious Price, broken up by Garrett TaylorSimilar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+5
98.0%
BARRETT, WOODY pass incomplete to CARRIGAN, MIKE, PENALTY PSU offside defense (Windsor, Robert) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
97.8%
RANKIN, JUSTIN rush for loss of 1 yard to the PSU38 (Toney, Shaka), PENALTY KENT holding (WARNOCK, NATE) 10 yards to the PSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+47
97.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 47 yds for a TD PENN ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
97.5%
Justin Rankin run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 42 KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+5
97.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for 5 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+18
97.6%
Matthew Trickett punt for 46 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 18 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0297% → 97%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
97.4%
Trace McSorley run for 18 yds to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (Matt Bahr) to the KntSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 5:07
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
97.3%
Matthew Trickett punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD8 plays · 31 yds · 3:0097% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:093% → 3%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Jo-El Shaw for no gain to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
97.4%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 19 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-5
97.3%
Woody Barrett sacked by Ellison Jordan for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 41
+32
97.4%
Matthew Trickett punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 49 , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 32 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 3:0098% → 97%
Q2 13:44
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+9
97.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 9 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-15
97.4%
McSorley, Trace pass complete to Johnson, Juwan for 24 yards to the KENT0, clock 10:44, PENALTY PSU pass interference (Freiermuth, Pat) 15 yards to the KENT39, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 11 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
97.0%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 12 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.0%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Justin Rankin for 6 yds to the KntSt 38Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
97.0%
Matthew Trickett punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 8:16
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+2
97.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT11 plays · 43 yds · 2:563% → 4%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
96.7%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 18 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
96.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 8 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-3
96.5%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 43Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
96.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 9 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-6
96.5%
Woody Barrett sacked by Yetur Gross-Matos for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
96.4%
Matthew Trickett punt for 25 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12INT5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
KENTDrive 13FG8 plays · 0 yds · 0:485% → 4%
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.3%
Jo-El Shaw run for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 15 Jo-El Shaw fumbled, recovered by KntSt Jo-El Shaw , return for no gain to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+10
95.7%
BARRETT, WOODY pass incomplete to CARRIGAN, MIKE, PENALTY PSU pass interference (Oruwariye, A.) 10 yards to the PSU5, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.3%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Antwan Dixon, broken up by Donovan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.6%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Mike Carrigan, broken up by Amani OruwariyeSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
95.8%
MCFADDEN, C. kickoff 45 yards to the PSU20, out-of-bounds, PENALTY KENT offside (MCFADDEN, C.) 5 yards to the KENT30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD6 plays · 43 yds · 0:2196% → 97%
KENTDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.1%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 6 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
97.0%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Jo-El Shaw for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-11
97.0%
Woody Barrett sacked by Shareef Miller for a loss of 11 yards to the KntSt 19Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+12
97.2%
Matthew Trickett punt for 50 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 12 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD8 plays · 57 yds · 3:0398% → 99%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
97.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 23 yds to the KntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
PSUDrive 19TD2 plays · 41 yds · 0:3599% → 100%
KENTDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
99.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 4 yds to the KntSt 12Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
99.6%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Mike Carrigan, broken up by Zech McPhearsonSimilar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+12
99.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Justin Rankin for 12 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoy, broken up by Amani OruwariyeSimilar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Matthew Trickett punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD9 plays · 70 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q3 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-10
99.8%
McSorley, Trace pass complete to Sullivan-Brown for 66 yards to the KENT0, clock 05:45, PENALTY PSU holding (Thorpe, C.J.) 10 yards to the PSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Brandon Polk, broken up by Elvis HinesSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+14
99.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 14 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.8%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the KntSt 41 Miles Sanders fumbled, forced by Jordan Silva, recovered by PnSt Trace McSorleySimilar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 41 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 12 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, roughing passer (Antonio Shelton) to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
99.9%
Woody Barrett sacked by Jayson Oweh for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 49Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for no gain to the KntSt 49Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 13
OWN 49
-5
99.9%
BARRETT, WOODY pass complete to MCKOY, ISAIAH for 6 yards to the PSU45 (Monroe, Ayron), PENALTY KENT illegal motion 5 yards to the KENT44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 18
OWN 44
-8
99.9%
Woody Barrett sacked by Jayson Oweh for a loss of 8 yards to the KntSt 36Similar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 26
OWN 36
+33
99.9%
Matthew Trickett punt for 47 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 33 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23DOWNS6 plays · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+14
99.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 14 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24PUNT10 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 37Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+15
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Jo-El Shaw for 15 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-7
99.9%
Woody Barrett sacked by Lamont Wade for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 48Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 12
50
-2
99.9%
Matthew Trickett punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 2 , Tariq Castro-Fields returns for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD3 plays · 98 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
KENTDrive 26PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
PSUDrive 27TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+75
100.0%
Johnathan Thomas run for 69 yds to the PENNST 11 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the KntSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
100.0%
Thomas, J. rush for 2 yards to the KENT3 (WEST, ZAYIN), PENALTY PSU holding (Wright, Chasz) 10 yards to the KENT15, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:05
Mark Allen run for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 0:04
Trace McSorley run for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+1.2
FG · Q2 0:35
MCFADDEN, C. kickoff 45 yards to the PSU20, out-of-bounds, PENALTY KENT offside (MCFADDEN, C.) 5 yards to the KENT30, NO PLAY.
+0.4