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APP

App State 38 at Penn State 45

PSU
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:48 · Clayton Howell punt for 44 yds, downed at the PnSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 68Pregame prior+34.4Home team on offense−2.6Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 7:40: Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +12.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:03: Zac Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +34.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:47: Jalin Moore run for 16 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +34.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:42: Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +40.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Miles Sanders run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +16.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:48PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:10APP 4th & 3 at PSU 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:10PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:06APP 4th & 16 at APP 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00PSU 4th & 3 at APP 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:46APP 4th & 13 at APP 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:01PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:48APP 4th & 7 at APP 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:12PSU 4th & 3 at APP 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−1.6
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−4.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 22 at APP 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:35APP 4th & 3 at APP 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 2 at PSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−0.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:03PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−1.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:19APP 4th & 4 at APP 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:55PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−8.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:06PSU 4th & 2 at APP 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−5.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−5.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:15APP 4th & 4 at PSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−3.0
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%
    36% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−9.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:02PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:48APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:41PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:41PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:39APP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:17PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:40APP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:03APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:47APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:42PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−6.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5896% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
95.7%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
95.7%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+15
95.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Desmond Franklin) to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
95.7%
Miles Sanders run for 11 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
95.7%
Miles Sanders run for 11 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
95.7%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Johnson, Juwan, PENALTY APP pass interference (Duck, Clifton) 15 yards to the APP14, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
95.7%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
95.4%
Trace McSorley 12 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.1%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
95.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
95.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 55 yds, downed at the AppSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 6:375% → 7%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
94.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 6 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+5
94.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 5 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.9%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 30Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
94.9%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+14
94.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalin Moore for 14 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
94.8%
Jalin Moore run for 12 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
94.8%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the PnSt 37 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (Zac Thomas) to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+14
94.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 14 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
94.7%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-15
94.8%
Heath, D. rush for loss of 3 yards to the PSU30 (Scott, Nick), PENALTY APP illegal cut (5V) 15 yards to the PSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 24
OPP 42
+5
94.8%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 19
OPP 37
+16
94.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 16 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
92.8%
Chandler Staton 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Danny Dalton for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
92.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mark Allen for 9 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
92.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mark Allen for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-8
92.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 17
OWN 29
0
92.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Danny DaltonSimilar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+11
92.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 42 yds , Clifton Duck returns for 11 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
91.8%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 38Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
91.9%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 12
OWN 38
-4
92.0%
Zac Thomas sacked by Cam Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 16
OWN 34
+29
92.3%
Clayton Howell punt for 49 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 29 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:3492% → 91%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mac Hippenhammer, broken up by Anthony FlorySimilar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
91.6%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
50
+12
91.6%
Miles Sanders run for 12 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
91.8%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+2
91.9%
Ricky Slade run for 2 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
91.7%
Ricky Slade run for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
91.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
89.9%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-6
90.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+5
90.3%
Thomas, Zac pass intercepted by Johnson, D. at the APP45, Johnson, D. return to the APP45, PENALTY PSU offside defense (Toney, Shaka) 5 yards to the APP30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-2
90.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalin Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
90.5%
Clayton Howell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
89.4%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+1
89.5%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
89.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
88.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 2:4012% → 13%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
88.2%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 21Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
88.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Devin Papenheim for 8 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+2
88.2%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
88.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalin MooreSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
88.2%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+9
86.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 9 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
85.6%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
85.6%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-5
85.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
85.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Dominique Heath, broken up by Nick Scott APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
86.6%
Clayton Howell punt for 44 yds, downed at the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:3285% → 86%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
85.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mark Allen for 8 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+7
85.7%
Mark Allen run for 7 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+29
85.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jonathan Holland for 29 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
87.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 1 yd to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+7
87.0%
Mark Allen run for 7 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
86.9%
Mark Allen run for 3 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
87.0%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+6
87.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 6 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
87.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
87.6%
Mark Allen run for 7 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
86.9%
Mark Allen run for no gain to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
85.6%
Jake Pinegar 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0686% → 87%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
86.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 6 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
86.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ Hamler, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.0%
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
82.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
81.8%
Zac Thomas sacked by Nick Scott for a loss of 10 yards to the AppSt 32 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Zac Thomas) to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 32
-2
83.2%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 30
0
83.9%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
84.4%
Clayton Howell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:2284% → 91%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
84.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 17 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
85.7%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+10
85.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 10 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
86.1%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+15
85.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 15 yds to the AppSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
86.1%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 10Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+8
86.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 8 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
91.1%
Trace McSorley run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
88.5%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the AppSt 15Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+2
88.7%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+14
89.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 14 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
88.1%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
88.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 4 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
87.7%
Zac Thomas run for no gain to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
88.7%
Clayton Howell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:4090% → 96%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
89.6%
Slade, Ricky rush for 2 yards to the PSU30 (Fehr, Jordan), PENALTY APP personal foul (Greer, Chandler) 15 yards to the PSU43, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
90.5%
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
90.6%
Ricky Slade run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 3
50
+9
90.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 9 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
90.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
90.7%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+6
90.4%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
91.0%
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+27
96.1%
Ricky Slade run for 27 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:026% → 16%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 1 yd Thomas Hennigan fumbled, forced by Amani Oruwariye,Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
94.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 12 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
93.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 8 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
93.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+22
93.3%
Zac Thomas run for 22 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
92.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 6 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-15
92.4%
Evans, D. rush for 2 yards to the PSU24 (Tarburton, Nick), PENALTY APP personal foul 15 yards to the PSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 39
0
94.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Tariq Castro-FieldsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+15
94.5%
Zac Thomas run for 15 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+22
93.8%
Peyton Derrick pass complete to Dominique Heath for 22 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
93.1%
Moore, Jalin rush for loss of 3 yards to the PSU5 (Johnson, Jan;Gross-Matos, Y.), PENALTY APP illegal block 15 yards to the PSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
83.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 17 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2290% → 97%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
91.0%
Miles Sanders run for 15 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+46
91.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 46 yds to the AppSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.9%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the AppSt 5Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
91.9%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.5%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:326% → 19%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
94.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalin Moore for 6 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
94.0%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
94.1%
PENN ST Penalty, offside defense (Robert Windsor) to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
94.0%
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+6
93.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
93.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Clifton DuckSimilar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+10
93.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalin Moore for 10 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
93.6%
Dominique Heath run for 19 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
81.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:3615% → 50%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
85.3%
Zac Thomas run for no gain to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
86.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 13 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
84.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 39 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.9%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.8%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
64.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Jonathan HollandSimilar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
62.7%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
60.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.1%
Zac Thomas run for no gain to the AppSt 37Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
55.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 6 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
52.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Tariq Castro-FieldsSimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
57.3%
Clayton Howell punt for 53 yds, downed at the PnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 56%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
60.4%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
60.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan Johnson, broken up by Clifton DuckSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
57.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 8
OWN 6
0
56.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:1252% → 95%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
47.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalin Moore for 8 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+10
45.2%
Jalin Moore run for 10 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
45.2%
Jalin Moore run for 8 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+16
4.9%
Jalin Moore run for 16 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:5721% → 67%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
21.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jonathan Holland for 7 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+1
24.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 1 yd to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
24.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+10
18.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 10 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
24.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 14 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
26.4%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the AppSt 15Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
66.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26MISSED FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:2751% → 57%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
49.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 30 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
40.8%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
41.6%
Jalin Moore run for 6 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
40.5%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Clifton DuckSimilar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+56
43.5%
Chandler Staton 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
58.9%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-3
58.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
64.7%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+13
64.7%
Miles Sanders run for 13 yds to the AppSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
64.7%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.6%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 29INT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
80.4%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
79.3%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
85.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
88.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.4%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted, touchback. Amani Oruwariye return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:42
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+40.1
TD · Q4 6:03
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-34.7
TD · Q4 1:47
Jalin Moore run for 16 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-34.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com