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OSU

Ohio State 27 at Penn State 26

PSU
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:17 · Drue Chrisman punt for 44 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior−6.9Home team on offense+7.9Garbage-time factor+0.3Score differential+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:50: J.K. Dobbins 26 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +14.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  2. TD · Q3 10:22: J.K. Dobbins 4 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:22: Pat Freiermuth 2 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Jake Pinegar Kick) — PSU win probability +26.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:42: Binjimen Victor 47 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +26.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:03: K.J. Hill 24 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — OSU win probability +37.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 14OSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 12:01PSU 4th & 2 at OSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10PSU 4th & 9 at OSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:35OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:58PSU 4th & 9 at OSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:36OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:14PSU 4th & 9 at OSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:53OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:27PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:18PSU 4th & 3 at OSU 21, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:24OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:30PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 12, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−2.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:02OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 5:17OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 37, down 13
    Close callPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q2 4:23PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 32, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  15. Q2 2:44OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 33, down 13
    Close callPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:20PSU 4th & 1 at OSU 49, up 6
    Close callPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 12:18OSU 4th & 1 at PSU 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−4.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−4.8
    average punt
  18. Q3 8:57PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−4.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  19. Q3 6:12OSU 4th & 25 at PSU 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−4.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−2.2
    average punt
  20. Q3 4:39PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 37, down 1
    Close callPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q3 3:27OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 14, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−2.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  22. Q3 0:38PSU 4th & 1 at OSU 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−4.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−18.2
    average punt
  23. Q4 14:44OSU 4th & 11 at OSU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−5.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  24. Q4 10:18OSU 4th & 1 at PSU 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.4%−6.3
    average punt
  25. Q4 4:35PSU 4th & 10 at OSU 42, up 5
    Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−1.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−0.5
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:16PSU 4th & 5 at OSU 43, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%−2.2
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    38.0%
    28% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−9.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 5:59PSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:50OSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:22OSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:22PSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:00PSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:42OSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:03OSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    59.2%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:4539% → 40%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
38.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 9 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+20
38.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
50
+3
39.1%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-1
39.4%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 48Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+6
39.5%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+2
39.8%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
40.3%
Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-1
40.5%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 39Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
40.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
40.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3560% → 59%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
40.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 10 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
40.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Parris CampbellSimilar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
40.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Prince) to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+5
40.3%
Dwayne Haskins run for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
40.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 5 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
40.8%
Drue Chrisman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:3641% → 43%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
40.6%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+15
40.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 15 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
41.3%
Trace McSorley run for 13 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
41.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 31 yds to the OhSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-13
42.4%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 13 yards to the OhSt 30 Tommy Stevens fumbled, recovered by PnSt Tommy StevensSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 23
OPP 30
+7
42.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 7 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 16
OPP 23
+7
42.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 7 yds to the OhSt 16Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
43.2%
Jake Pinegar 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2257% → 55%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
43.4%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd to the OhSt 28Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
44.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to K.J. HillSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-3
44.7%
Drue Chrisman punt for 49 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5MISSED FG
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:2244% → 44%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+51
43.5%
Trace McSorley run for 51 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
45.3%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the OhSt 29Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
45.3%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-2
45.1%
Trace McSorley sacked by Chase Young and Malik Harrison for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 28Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+46
44.3%
Jake Pinegar 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2156% → 54%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
44.5%
J.K. Dobbins run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
45.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Austin MackSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+7
45.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 7 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
46.1%
Drue Chrisman punt for 53 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2545% → 44%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
44.8%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
45.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for no gain to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
44.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
44.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 36 yds, downed at the OhSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:3956% → 56%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
44.5%
Mike Weber run for 11 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+45
44.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass intercepted Garrett Taylor return for 45 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2948% → 51%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
48.0%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
47.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+10
46.6%
Miles Sanders run for 10 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
51.2%
Jake Pinegar 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5351% → 49%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
48.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
49.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 8 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
48.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
48.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Terry McLaurinSimilar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
49.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Austin MackSimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+1
50.9%
Drue Chrisman punt for 44 yds for a 1ST down , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (5 Yards) to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5353% → 51%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
52.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-7
52.5%
Trace McSorley sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 12Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 17
OWN 12
0
52.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 17
OWN 12
0
51.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 48 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2750% → 46%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
50.0%
Mike Weber run for 2 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
50.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Mike WeberSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-2
51.6%
Dwayne Haskins sacked by Micah Parsons and Robert Windsor for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 40Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
53.7%
Drue Chrisman punt for 58 yds, downed at the PnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 98 yds · 1:0255% → 65%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
54.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+5
54.7%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+93
65.4%
KJ Hamler 93 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4136% → 35%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
64.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Austin MackSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
64.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 7 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
64.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Terry McLaurinSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+10
65.2%
Drue Chrisman punt for 44 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5367% → 67%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
67.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Miles SandersSimilar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
67.4%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
67.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
66.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3834% → 32%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.1%
Mike Weber run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
66.4%
Parris Campbell run for 1 yd to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
67.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Mike Weber for 5 yds to the OhSt 33 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah Prince) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
68.1%
Drue Chrisman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.5%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the PnSt 25 Miles Sanders fumbled, forced by Tuf Borland, recovered by OhSt Dre'Mont JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:4135% → 50%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
65.0%
J.K. Dobbins run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+26
50.5%
J.K. Dobbins 26 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:2458% → 59%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
58.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 10 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
58.9%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+6
60.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 6 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
60.2%
Miles Sanders run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 2
50
+1
60.3%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the OhSt 49Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
59.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
56.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3843% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
56.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for 8 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
54.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 8 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
55.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 1
50
+5
53.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for 5 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
54.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Austin MackSimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
54.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 8 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
54.5%
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+1
56.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
53.6%
Dwayne Haskins run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
53.4%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
53.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 8 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+12
53.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 12 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
39.3%
J.K. Dobbins 4 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:5445% → 43%
Q3 9:51
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
45.3%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 13
OWN 21
0
43.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 13
OWN 21
-2
43.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 38 yds , K.J. Hill returns for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 39 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 29. PENN ST Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the OhSt 44. Antonio Shelton ejected for Targeting.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23MISSED FG
11 plays · 25 yds · 2:4458% → 53%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
41.8%
Mike Weber run for 13 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
41.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 12 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
39.8%
Mike Weber run for 4 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
39.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+11
41.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 11 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
39.5%
K.J. Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 13
OPP 19
-5
40.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 24Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 18
OPP 24
+8
40.7%
Mike Weber run for 8 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
41.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 10
OPP 16
-15
44.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Luke Farrell) to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 25
OPP 31
+48
46.7%
Sean Nuernberger 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3347% → 45%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
47.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
46.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 5 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+1
46.8%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
45.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 53 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1255% → 52%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
44.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 12Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
45.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Terry McLaurinSimilar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+2
46.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 2 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 6
OWN 14
-3
48.1%
Drue Chrisman punt for 45 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:4848% → 48%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
48.3%
Trace McSorley run for 23 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
51.7%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-10
51.8%
Hamler, KJ rush for 1 yard to the OHIOST37, PENALTY PENNST holding (Freiermuth, Pat) 10 yards to the OHIOST48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 19
OPP 48
+15
48.8%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Hamler, KJ, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Pryor, Isaiah) 15 yards to the OHIOST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
53.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-3
52.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 36Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+12
46.9%
Miles Sanders run for 12 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
48.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5355% → 52%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
45.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Austin MackSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-1
44.0%
Mike Weber run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
45.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to C.J. SaundersSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+2
47.6%
Drue Chrisman punt for 52 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:2246% → 80%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
45.8%
Trace McSorley run for 10 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
47.1%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-5
49.5%
Trace McSorley sacked by Tuf Borland for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+51
47.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 36 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Targeting (Isaiah Pryor) to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST down. Isaiah Pryor ejected.Similar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
53.5%
Trace McSorley run for 13 yds to the OhSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.0%
Pat Freiermuth 2 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0333% → 31%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
67.2%
Parris Campbell run for 18 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
66.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for no gain to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
67.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 4 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
66.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 5 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
69.4%
Dwayne Haskins run for no gain to the PnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:1783% → 93%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
83.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 21 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
83.8%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
84.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+19
83.1%
Trace McSorley run for 19 yds to the OhSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
85.0%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+10
85.4%
Trace McSorley run for 10 yds to the OhSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Miles Sanders 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 31TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:179% → 36%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to C.J. Saunders for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
90.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 8 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
90.7%
Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Castro-Fields, Tariq) 15 yards to the PENNST47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
64.4%
Binjimen Victor 47 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 32PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:0681% → 83%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
81.2%
Trace McSorley run for 13 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
83.8%
McSorley, Trace rush for no gain to the PENNST43, PENALTY OHIOST face mask (Young, Chase) 15 yards to the OHIOST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
85.2%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the OhSt 41 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Trace McSorley) to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+9
84.7%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
85.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 5
OPP 37
-5
83.8%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 42Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
82.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 38 yds, downed at the OhSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 33TD
9 plays · 96 yds · 2:3126% → 71%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+35
73.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 35 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
70.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 7 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
69.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Luke FarrellSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+11
70.1%
Mike Weber run for 11 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
68.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 14 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Parris CampbellSimilar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
67.1%
J.K. Dobbins run for 5 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+24
29.5%
K.J. Hill 24 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 34DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:4648% → 50%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
48.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 27 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
54.9%
Trace McSorley sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 14
OWN 48
0
48.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+9
46.7%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 5
OPP 43
-2
49.9%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 35END OF GAME
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1575% → 92%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
25.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 14
OWN 41
-3
24.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 38
-3
7.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:03
K.J. Hill 24 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-37.6
TD · Q4 12:22
Pat Freiermuth 2 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Jake Pinegar Kick)
+26.5
TD · Q4 6:42
Binjimen Victor 47 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
-26.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com