2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:32 · Justin McMillan pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 5 yds to the OhSt 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:56: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 17 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:08: Zachary Block punt for 46 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 7 — TULN win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:11: Zachary Block punt for 45 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 2 yds to the OhSt 41 — TULN win probability +2.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
- TD · Q2 3:31: J.K. Dobbins run for 8 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — TULN win probability +0.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:01: Tate Martell run for 1 yd for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — TULN win probability +0.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 9:46TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 3:08TULN 4th & 12 at TULN 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q2 5:11TULN 4th & 19 at TULN 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.610% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q2 2:39TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.7%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q2 1:22OSU 4th & 4 at TULN 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.2%48% to convertField goal90.9%−0.336% to makePunt90.8%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:51OSU 4th & 11 at OSU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.4%−1.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.7%average punt
- Q4 14:19TULN 4th & 17 at OSU 36, tiedClose callPunted · 24.7% before the snapGo for it23.3%−2.415% to convertField goal25.7%42% to makePuntTheir call24.9%−0.8average punt
- Q4 9:42OSU 4th & 6 at TULN 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.6%40% to convertField goal71.9%−1.645% to makePunt70.3%−3.3average punt
- Q4 7:45OSU 4th & 2 at TULN 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.8%56% to convertField goal68.0%−2.881% to makePunt50.9%−19.9average punt
- Q4 3:32TULN 4th & 8 at OSU 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.8%34% to convertField goal43.3%−0.545% to makePunt38.7%−5.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:19OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:56OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1TD10 plays · 91 yds · 3:3199% → 99%
Q1 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+35
98.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 35 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
98.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 7 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+18
98.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 18 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
98.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 14 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2DOWNS5 plays · 0 yds · 1:162% → 2%
Q1 9:46
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+17
98.3%
Ryan Wright punt for 41 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 17 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3PUNT TD9 plays · 7 yds · 2:3498% → 98%
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
98.3%
TULANE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
98.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 2 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+19
98.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 19 yds to the Tulan 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-7
98.2%
Mike Weber run for 3 yds to the Tulan 7 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulan 17Similar
Q1 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
98.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 17 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD11 plays · 56 yds · 3:402% → 2%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
98.2%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 13 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-6
98.1%
Jonathan Banks sacked by Baron Browning for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 47Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
97.7%
Zachary Block punt for 46 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5DOWNS TD7 plays · 0 yds · 2:2498% → 98%
Q1 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+16
97.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 16 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
97.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 6 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
97.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 4 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
97.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 37 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT14 plays · 22 yds · 4:483% → 4%
Q2 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+12
97.2%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 17
OPP 46
+4
96.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Damon Arnette) to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+38
96.6%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 38 yds to the OhSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.3%
Darius Bradwell run for 2 yds for a TD (Merek Glover PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD8 plays · 93 yds · 2:0297% → 97%
Q2 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+13
96.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 13 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
96.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Mike Weber for 10 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
96.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 13 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
96.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 31 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:354% → 6%
OSUDrive 9TD7 plays · 81 yds · 1:2694% → 94%
Q2 4:04
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+24
94.3%
Tate Martell pass complete to K.J. Hill for 24 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT7 plays · -9 yds · 0:448% → 8%
Q2 2:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
91.9%
Ryan Wright punt for 36 yds, fair catch by C.J. Saunders at the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD11 plays · 59 yds · 1:3393% → 93%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
92.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 10 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
93.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 2 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+8
92.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 8 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
93.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 7 yds to the Tulan 38Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-1
92.9%
Dwayne Haskins sacked by Lawrence Graham for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 39Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+9
92.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 9 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+16
93.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 16 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
93.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 14 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12PUNT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0810% → 11%
TULNDrive 14PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 2:4910% → 11%
OSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4690% → 89%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
90.0%
Tate Martell pass complete to C.J. Saunders for 3 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
89.6%
Tate Martell pass complete to C.J. Saunders for 3 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-5
88.6%
Tate Martell sacked by Cameron Sample for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1415% → 16%
OSUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3687% → 82%
Q3 4:49
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
86.2%
Tate Martell pass complete to Demario McCall for 1 yd to the Tulan 47Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-5
85.1%
Tate Martell sacked by Patrick Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 48 Tate Martell fumbled, recovered by OhSt Tate Martell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 62 yds · 4:2919% → 24%
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+19
81.0%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 19 yds to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+6
79.1%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 6 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+39
76.6%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 39 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19DOWNS14 plays · 65 yds · 6:2778% → 71%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
78.0%
Tate Martell pass complete to C.J. Saunders for 4 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
78.6%
Tate Martell pass complete to Jaylen Harris for 7 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+13
77.6%
Tate Martell pass complete to Garyn Prater for 13 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+11
73.3%
Tate Martell pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 11 yds to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 55 yds · 3:3637% → 45%
OSUDrive 21TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:2563% → 70%
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+48.8
TD · Q2 5:11
Zachary Block punt for 45 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 2 yds to the OhSt 41
-2.5
TD · Q4 1:01
Tate Martell run for 1 yd for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-0.5