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Notre Dame 31 at Northwestern 21

NU
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:34 · Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 4 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior−12.7Home team on offense−3.3Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:28: Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 20 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +12.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:33: Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 47 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +11.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:16: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 27 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +12.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:05: Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +21.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 2:45: Ian Book run for 23 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +11.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:01NU 4th & 10 at ND 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30ND 4th & 2 at NU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:29NU 4th & 8 at NU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:59ND 4th & 1 at NU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−0.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:40ND 4th & 27 at NU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:03NU 4th & 5 at ND 21, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:59ND 4th & 11 at ND 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:10NU 4th & 6 at ND 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:12ND 4th & 1 at ND 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00NU 4th & 4 at ND 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−1.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:19NU 4th & 17 at NU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:34ND 4th & 2 at NU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−2.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−9.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:42NU 4th & 10 at NU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:22NU 4th & 11 at NU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:05ND 4th & 7 at NU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−5.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:56ND 4th & 13 at ND 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−4.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:05NU 4th & 1 at ND 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−4.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−12.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:12NU 4th & 3 at NU 32, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:12ND 4th & 21 at NU 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:28ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:04NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:28ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:33ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:16NU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:05NU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:45ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3278% → 78%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
21.6%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
21.7%
Dexter Williams run for 11 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
21.8%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2MISSED FG
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1922% → 23%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
22.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+9
22.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 9 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
22.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
23.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
23.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
23.0%
Charlie Kuhbander 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 5:2977% → 77%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
22.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+16
23.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 16 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
23.1%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
23.1%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
23.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Sam Mustipher) to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+15
23.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
50
0
23.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
50
-1
23.7%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 49Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+9
24.2%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+7
24.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 7 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
24.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+10
24.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 10 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
24.5%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+17
24.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 17 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.6%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5323% → 23%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+19
23.3%
Jake Collins punt for 50 yds , Chris Finke returns for 19 yds to the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:3277% → 76%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
23.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 19 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
22.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
23.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+6
23.1%
Ian Book run for 6 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+1
23.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
23.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 24 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
23.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Robert Hainsey) to the Nwest 10Similar
Q1 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
23.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
23.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Miles Boykin) to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 25
0
23.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
-2
23.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 27
+44
24.3%
Justin Yoon 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD
19 plays · 73 yds · 8:1525% → 38%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
24.6%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
24.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Berkeley HolmanSimilar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+10
24.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 10 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
25.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
26.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
26.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+9
26.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to James Prather for 9 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
26.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
27.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
27.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
28.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
28.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+3
27.4%
Chad Hanaoka run for 3 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+7
26.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 7 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
28.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 4 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
28.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+8
27.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jalen Elliott) to the NDame 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
29.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:3468% → 66%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.9%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
32.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 9 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
32.2%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
33.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
34.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:2836% → 38%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
36.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 14 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
36.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
38.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+11
38.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 11 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
40.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
40.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+2
39.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Chad Hanaoka for 2 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
37.6%
Jake Collins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3866% → 64%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
34.3%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
34.5%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+12
35.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 40 yds , Riley Lees returns for 12 yds to the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0541% → 39%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
40.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
40.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+1
40.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 1 yd to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 40
-6
38.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Daelin Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:2439% → 39%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
39.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
38.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 6 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
40.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
40.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 15 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
43.3%
Flynn Nagel run for 2 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
43.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-9
42.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 17
OWN 45
+1
38.7%
Jake Collins punt for 36 yds , Chris Finke returns for 1 yd to the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:3662% → 78%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
37.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 13 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
37.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Dexter Williams for 13 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
35.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 9 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+8
34.5%
Dexter Williams run for 8 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
35.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Sam Mustipher) to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+13
36.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 13 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
33.9%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
35.3%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+4
37.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 4 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
34.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 5 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
34.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole KmetSimilar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
21.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 20 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3327% → 25%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
26.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
29.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
28.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
28.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-1
27.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Te'von Coney for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
25.2%
Jake Collins punt for 50 yds, downed at the NDame 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
6 plays · 98 yds · 2:0176% → 90%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
24.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael YoungSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+31
24.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 31 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
22.6%
Dexter Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
21.1%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+14
21.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 14 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
9.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 47 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4112% → 11%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
11.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
11.3%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Te'von Coney for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+15
11.1%
Jake Collins punt for 46 yds , Chris Finke returns for 15 yds to the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16FG
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:0191% → 94%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
9.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 26 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
8.8%
Jafar Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
7.5%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-2
7.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
6.5%
Justin Yoon 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:347% → 19%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
7.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+11
7.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 11 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
6.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 20 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
6.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
6.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 9 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+27
19.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 27 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5185% → 86%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.4%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
14.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
13.1%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-2
13.2%
Ian Book run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
14.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
14.1%
TEAM punt blocked by Cameron Ruiz Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3117% → 37%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
17.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 13 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
17.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
16.9%
Riley Lees run for 1 yd to the NDame 3Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
15.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 4:0071% → 94%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+21
28.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 21 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
27.1%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
23.0%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
23.1%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
22.4%
Dexter Williams run for 19 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
21.4%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
20.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Aaron Banks) to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+15
21.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 15 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
17.1%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
17.1%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+23
5.6%
Ian Book run for 23 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:206% → 5%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Chad Hanaoka for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-8
5.3%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 22 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+10
4.2%
Solomon Vault run for 10 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
4.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -11 yds · 0:5796% → 96%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 13
OPP 37
-3
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 16
OPP 40
-5
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 21
OPP 45
0
4.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:05
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+21.8
TD · Q3 7:28
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 20 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q4 11:16
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 27 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com