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WIS

Wisconsin 17 at Northwestern 31

NU
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:45 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:44: Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +9.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:23: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 24 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) WISCONSIN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — NU win probability +15.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:39: Charlie Kuhbander 26 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +12.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:50: Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +6.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:00: Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 10 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +8.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00WIS 4th & 2 at NU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:49NU 4th & 11 at NU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:26WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:09NU 4th & 1 at WIS 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:56WIS 4th & 4 at NU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00NU 4th & 2 at WIS 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−1.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:56WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:39NU 4th & 8 at WIS 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−7.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:44WIS 4th & 5 at NU 33, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00NU 4th & 6 at NU 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:45WIS 4th & 2 at NU 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:10NU 4th & 2 at NU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:58WIS 4th & 6 at NU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%−0.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:04WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:21NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:44NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:23NU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:50NU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:00WIS Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
35.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
35.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
35.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
35.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+8
35.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 8 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-1
35.5%
Taiwan Deal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
35.5%
Connor Allen punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
37.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
37.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
37.1%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Evan Bondoc return for no gain to the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:2063% → 65%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
36.8%
Kendric Pryor run for 15 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
36.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+9
36.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Alec Ingold for 9 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
36.8%
Alec Ingold run for no gain to the Nwest 4Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.2%
Alec Ingold run for 4 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:4336% → 43%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
35.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
36.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
36.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Chad Hanaoka for 5 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
36.5%
Chad Hanaoka run for 6 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
36.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+8
36.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
36.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 12 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
37.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
37.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 7 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+6
36.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
37.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
37.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
36.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.1%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Wisc 1Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1360% → 58%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
40.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 10 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
40.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
39.8%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-4
40.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jack Coan for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+6
41.8%
Connor Allen punt for 39 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 6 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
43.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+5
42.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
42.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
41.6%
Jake Collins punt for 42 yds, downed at the Wisc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
41.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Aron Cruickshank, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
41.6%
Garrett Groshek run for 4 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+3
41.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
42.3%
Connor Allen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:4644% → 47%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
44.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+32
44.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 32 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
46.2%
Kyric McGowan run for 21 yds to the Wisc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
46.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
46.2%
Riley Lees run for 2 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
45.4%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Wisc 1Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.6%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Wisc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0956% → 56%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
44.2%
Alec Ingold run for 4 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+4
44.3%
Alec Ingold run for 4 yds to the Wisc 9Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+2
44.8%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
43.6%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
44.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 15 Jonathan Taylor fumbled, recovered by Nwest Trae WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:0550% → 61%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
49.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 3 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+5
49.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 5 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
48.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Wisc 7Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+5
48.4%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Fessler, C., PENALTY WIS pass interference (Hicks, Faion) 5 yards to the WIS2, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
51.2%
Bowser, Isaiah rush for 2 yards to the WIS0, clock 04:55, PENALTY NU holding (Butler, J.B.) 10 yards to the WIS12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
50.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
50.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Chad Hanaoka for 3 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:3941% → 46%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
59.0%
Jack Coan run for 5 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
57.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
58.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 18 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
56.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 8 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+8
54.5%
Garrett Groshek run for 8 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
54.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
55.0%
Garrett Groshek run for 6 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
55.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Garrett GroshekSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
53.6%
Rafael Gaglianone 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
54.2%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Madison Cone return for no gain to the Wisc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:2143% → 46%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
56.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 16 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
55.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 13 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
52.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+62
53.8%
Zach Hintze 62 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
52.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 10 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
53.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+27
53.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 27 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
56.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
56.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+4
55.0%
Chad Hanaoka run for 4 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
53.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
53.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Danny Davis III, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-8
53.6%
Kendric Pryor run for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 19Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 18
OWN 19
+11
55.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 11 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+39
55.4%
Connor Allen punt for 39 yds , Riley Lees returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:0558% → 77%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
58.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
57.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 6 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
58.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+15
56.8%
Collins, Jake punt 41 yards to the WIS23, Dunn, Jack return to the WIS22 (Thorson, C.), PENALTY WIS roughing the kicker (Sanborn, Jack) 15 yards to the WIS49, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
60.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
60.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+8
60.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 8 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
61.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+8
61.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the Wisc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
61.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Wisc 24Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
76.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 24 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) WISCONSIN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
74.0%
Danny Davis III run for 19 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
73.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 42 Jonathan Taylor fumbled, forced by Paddy Fisher, recovered by Nwest Montre HartageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5478% → 88%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
78.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
78.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+27
77.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 27 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
77.8%
Berkeley Holman run for 5 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
77.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
77.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
75.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 8Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
87.9%
Charlie Kuhbander 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5018% → 15%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
82.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 15 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
81.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
82.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 4 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
82.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+51
84.8%
Rafael Gaglianone 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4490% → 90%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
90.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
90.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
90.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+55
89.9%
Jake Collins punt for 46 yds WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive holding (9 Yards) to the Wisc 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
88.1%
Jack Coan run for 5 yds to the Wisc 13 Jack Coan fumbled, forced by Jordan Thompson, recovered by Nwest Nate HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:3692% → 98%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
91.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 3 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
91.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Wisc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
91.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 2Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 46 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
98.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 7 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+9
97.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 9 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
97.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 5 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+17
97.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 17 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
97.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-15
97.8%
Groshek, G. rush for 1 yard to the NU35 (Thompson, J.), PENALTY WIS personal foul (Dietzen, Jon) 15 yards to the WIS49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 21
OWN 49
+7
98.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 7 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+12
98.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 12 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
97.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to A.J. Taylor, broken up by Alex MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
98.5%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Zack Baun return for 7 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:272% → 10%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
98.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 8 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+8
98.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 8 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
98.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Alec Ingold for 3 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
90.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 10 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5094% → 96%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
94.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
94.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 5 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+11
96.0%
Jake Collins punt for 42 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 11 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
95.2%
Jack Coan sacked by Earnest Brown IV for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
95.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+20
95.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 20 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.1%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
95.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Danny Davis III, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+4
95.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
95.3%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Danny Davis III, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 22 yds · 1:3397% → 98%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
97.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
97.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
98.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
98.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+11
98.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 11 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-1
98.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:23
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 24 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) WISCONSIN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
+15
FG · Q3 2:39
Charlie Kuhbander 26 yd FG GOOD
+12.3
TD · Q2 3:44
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com