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AKR

Akron 39 at Northwestern 34

NU
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:42 · Nick Gasser 48 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 192Pregame prior+3.5Home team on offense−40.0Score differential−13.0Garbage-time factor−11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:14: Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a TD Alvin Davis return for 97 yds for a TD Timeout AKRON, clock 03:14 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — AKR win probability +11.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:14: Timeout AKRON, clock 03:14 — AKR win probability +47.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:24: Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 24 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK) — NU win probability +36.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AKR down 3 timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 7:24: Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a TD Alvin Davis return for 50 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +30.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:21: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NU win probability +21.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10AKR made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00NU 4th & 6 at AKR 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:03AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:29NU 4th & 4 at AKR 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:29AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:52AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:35NU 4th & 3 at NU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:25AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 25, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 2 at AKR 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:26AKR 4th & 19 at AKR 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:28AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:54NU 4th & 5 at AKR 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:39AKR 4th & 5 at NU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:50AKR 4th & 6 at NU 7, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−4.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:50NU 4th & 1 at NU 44, up 15
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:27AKR 4th & 2 at NU 27, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−3.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:14NU 4th & 3 at AKR 16, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−7.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:05NU 4th & 7 at AKR 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−12.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:05AKR 4th & 8 at NU 43, down 2
    Close callPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:24NU 4th & 1 at NU 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.0%−3.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:42AKR 4th & 10 at NU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−1.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:21NU 4th & 10 at AKR 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−1.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 6:52NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:21NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:07NU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:49AKR Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:14AKR Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:24NU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:24AKR Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:21NU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
92.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 18 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Brian BellSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-1
92.1%
Jeremy Larkin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+5
92.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 5 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
92.1%
Jake Collins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Andre Williams at the Akron 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
91.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 3 yds to the Akron 14Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+4
91.7%
Kwadarrius Smith run for 4 yds to the Akron 18Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 3
OWN 18
-5
91.7%
AKRON Penalty, false start (Trevor Brown) to the Akron 13Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
91.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by Greg Newsome IISimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+6
91.7%
Nick Gasser punt for 47 yds for a 1ST down , Riley Lees returns for 6 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5291% → 91%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
91.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 8 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
91.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+8
91.3%
Jeremy Larkin run for 8 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
91.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Akron 19Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
91.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for no gain to the Akron 19Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+2
91.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 2 yds to the Akron 17Similar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
90.5%
Charlie Kuhbander 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
90.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
90.3%
Kato Nelson run for 3 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+1
90.4%
Kato Nelson run for 1 yd to the Akron 27Similar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
90.5%
TEAM run for no gain to the Akron 7 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nwest Chris BerginSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 7 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.9%
Kato Nelson run for 4 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
90.9%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
90.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
91.1%
Nick Gasser punt for 34 yds, downed at the Nwest 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
90.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 7 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
91.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
90.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jeremy Larkin, broken up by John LakoSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
90.7%
Jake Collins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Shawn Featherstone at the Akron 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
90.5%
AKRON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 12Similar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 15
OWN 12
-4
90.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 8Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 19
OWN 8
+9
90.6%
Kato Nelson run for 9 yds to the Akron 17Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+8
90.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 8 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+33
90.7%
Nick Gasser punt for 33 yds , Riley Lees returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:2791% → 90%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
90.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 1
50
0
90.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 1
50
+2
90.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
90.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 9 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
90.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
90.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
90.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 8 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
90.1%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Akron 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 29
-1
89.8%
Jeremy Larkin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 2:2511% → 10%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
89.2%
NELSON, Kato rush for 5 yards to the AKRON35, PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+1
89.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 21Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 19
OWN 21
+17
89.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 17 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+5
88.9%
Kato Nelson run for 5 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
89.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the Akron 49 AKRON Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Akron 34Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 19
OWN 34
-5
89.4%
AKRON Penalty, false start (Hunter Corne) to the Akron 29Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 24
OWN 29
0
89.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jonah Morris, broken up by Jordan ThompsonSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 24
OWN 29
+5
89.5%
Kato Nelson run for 5 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 19
OWN 34
0
89.6%
Nick Gasser punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:2289% → 93%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
89.4%
John Moten IV run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
89.4%
John Moten IV run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-10
89.1%
Thorson, C. rush for 12 yards to the NU43, out-of-bounds (DAVIS, Alvin), PENALTY NU holding (Butler, J.B.) 10 yards to the NU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+16
89.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 16 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+43
89.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 43 yds to the Akron 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
90.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd to the Akron 19Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+14
90.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 14 yds to the Akron 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 16 yds · 1:538% → 8%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 5 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
91.8%
EDWARDS, Van rush for no gain to the AKRON30 (McGee, Jared), PENALTY AKRON holding (BROWN, Trevor) 10 yards to the AKRON20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
92.0%
AKRON Penalty, false start (Bryce Petersen) to the Akron 15Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+7
92.0%
Kato Nelson run for 7 yds to the Akron 22Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+10
92.2%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Andre, PENALTY NU holding (Hartage, Montre) 10 yards to the AKRON32, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
91.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 4 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
91.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 5 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-5
91.4%
AKRON Penalty, false start (Bryce Petersen) to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
92.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 5 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
91.9%
Mykel Traylor-Bennett run for no gain to the Akron 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
93.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+3
93.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
92.9%
TJ Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+4
92.5%
TJ Green run for 4 yds to the Akron 32 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14FG
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:048% → 10%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+43
92.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 43 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
90.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 5 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
90.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Van Edwards Jr.Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
91.0%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Newman Williams, broken up by JR PaceSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
90.4%
Nick Gasser 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 0:3192% → 95%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
91.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+16
91.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 16 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
91.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
92.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Jordan GeorgeSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+9
91.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 9 yds to the Akron 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
94.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 21 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
93.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Akron 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:106% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.9%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 11 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
93.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 11 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
93.5%
Deltron Sands run for 2 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
93.4%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jonah MorrisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+40
93.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 40 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
92.7%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+3
92.7%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
93.1%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams, broken up by JR PaceSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
91.6%
Nick Gasser 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 10 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Brian BellSimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
93.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 9 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
93.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
92.9%
Jake Collins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Andre Williams at the Akron 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:118% → 13%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
92.4%
Kato Nelson run for 4 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
92.1%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 25Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+13
92.4%
Kato Nelson run for 13 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
91.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
50
+15
91.4%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to SMITH, Kwad., PENALTY NU pass interference (Newsome II, G.) 15 yards to the NU35, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
91.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
90.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 5 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
92.2%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jonah Morris, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+2
92.4%
Kwadarrius Smith run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 25 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20INT TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:3090% → 78%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
89.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 7 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+8
89.8%
Jeremy Larkin run for 8 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
90.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 8 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
90.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd to the Akron 48Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
90.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
90.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 22 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
91.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Brian BellSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
90.9%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Akron 21Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+5
90.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Akron 16Similar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+97
78.4%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a TD Alvin Davis return for 97 yds for a TD Timeout AKRON, clock 03:14 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:0158% → 63%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
58.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 11 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
58.6%
Kyric McGowan run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
57.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Charlie Fessler, broken up by Brock BoxenSimilar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+15
55.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 15 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
61.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jeremy LarkinSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
60.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Brian BellSimilar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 0
+23
55.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 8 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 44 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
64.6%
John Moten IV run for 1 yd to the Akron 13Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
62.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 13 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4468% → 30%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
32.4%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to STEWART, Nate, QB hurry by Miller, Samdup, QB hurry by O'Rourke, Devin, PENALTY AKRON ineligible downfield on pass (PETERSEN, Bryce) 5 yards to the AKRON20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+56
33.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 56 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
69.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 24 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:1374% → 75%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
74.3%
TJ Green pass complete to Cameron Green for 6 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+12
76.2%
TJ Green run for 12 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
77.1%
TJ Green pass complete to John Moten IV for 10 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
77.3%
TJ Green pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 6 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
78.7%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
78.7%
TJ Green run for no gain to the Akron 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
78.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
77.2%
TJ Green pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for no gain to the Akron 25Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
74.9%
Charlie Kuhbander 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 9 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+21
73.9%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 21 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.8%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
72.2%
Kato Nelson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
72.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius Smith, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
75.9%
Nick Gasser punt for 40 yds, downed at the Nwest 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26FUMBLE TD
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2571% → 44%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
71.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+8
71.1%
Green, TJ pass incomplete to Skowronek, B., PENALTY AKRON pass interference (BROWN, Kyron) 8 yards to the NU13, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
71.9%
TJ Green pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
71.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
44.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Josh Ward for a loss of 8 yards Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Akron Ulysees Gilbert III , return for 0 yards for a TD (Kato Nelson fumbled)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27INT TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5946% → 17%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
46.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 4 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
46.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to John Moten IV for 7 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+50
16.6%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a TD Alvin Davis return for 50 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0016% → 18%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
16.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 9 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley Lees, broken up by Brian BellSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
16.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jeremy LarkinSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
15.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
17.6%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Nwest 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 29MISSED FG
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:2095% → 95%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
4.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
4.9%
Kato Nelson run for no gain to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+13
5.1%
Deltron Sands run for 13 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
4.5%
Deltron Sands run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
4.4%
Kato Nelson run for no gain to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+4
5.2%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31 Van Edwards Jr. fumbled, forced by Samdup Miller, recovered by AkronSimilar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
5.4%
Nick Gasser 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:217% → 30%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
6.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 16 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
7.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 18 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
9.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Brock Boxen and Brennan Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 39Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+15
7.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 15 yds to the Akron 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
9.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jeremy Larkin, broken up by Jamal Davis IISimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
9.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
8.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+24
29.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 31DOWNS
6 plays · -21 yds · 0:0091% → 87%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
8.6%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 44Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 17
OWN 44
-2
9.8%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 42Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 19
OWN 42
-7
10.9%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 35Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 26
OWN 35
-5
12.3%
AKRON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Akron 30Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 31
OWN 30
0
12.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
17.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett Skowronek, broken up by Jamal Davis IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:14
Timeout AKRON, clock 03:14
-47.8
TD · Q3 0:24
Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 24 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)
+36.1
TD · Q4 7:24
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a TD Alvin Davis return for 50 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)
-30.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com