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NU

Northwestern 31 at Purdue 27

PUR
2018 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2018 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:43 · Joe Schopper punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Home team on offense−1.7Pregame prior+5.7Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:02: Rondale Moore run for 76 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK) — PUR win probability +5.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:06: TJ Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +7.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:37: Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds for a TD NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 8 (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +8.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:50: David Blough pass complete to Jared Sparks for 13 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST down — PUR win probability +15.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:56: Spencer Evans 27 yd FG GOOD — PUR win probability +7.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 6:43PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:22NU 4th & 6 at NU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:37NU 4th & 9 at PUR 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:16PUR 4th & 16 at NU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:33NU 4th & 1 at NU 45, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:44PUR 4th & 7 at NU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:54NU 4th & 11 at NU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:31NU 4th & 1 at NU 29, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:26PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:42NU 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:56PUR 4th & 5 at NU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−13.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:36NU 4th & 2 at NU 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:05PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 28, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:21NU 4th & 6 at PUR 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−1.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−3.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:57PUR 4th & 14 at PUR 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−3.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:29NU 4th & 1 at PUR 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−5.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−8.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:58NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:34NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:20PUR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:02PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:06NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:37NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1INT
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:0457% → 57%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
56.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 8 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
56.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
56.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 3 yds to the Prdue 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
56.8%
D.J. Knox run for 2 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
56.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+15
56.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
57.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 11 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
57.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+26
57.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass intercepted JR Pace return for 26 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:2243% → 46%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
56.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
56.5%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Prdue 45Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
56.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 7 yds to the Prdue 38Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
56.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
56.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 16 yds to the Prdue 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
56.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 8 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
56.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Prdue 11Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
56.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 3 yds to the Prdue 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
56.0%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Prdue 6Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
56.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Prdue 1Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0554% → 53%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
54.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
54.1%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 22Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+5
53.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Markell Jones for 5 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
53.4%
Joe Schopper punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:4647% → 51%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
53.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 6 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+46
52.8%
Jeremy Larkin run for 46 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
52.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
52.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 11 yds to the Prdue 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.7%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 0:5651% → 55%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
50.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 8 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+9
50.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 9 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
50.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Tario Fuller for 11 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
54.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 32 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:5847% → 48%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
52.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
52.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
52.8%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-1
52.5%
TJ Green pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+14
52.7%
TJ Green pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+56
52.5%
Jake Collins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the PURDUE 25 PURDUE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Prdue 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 1:0252% → 57%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
51.7%
Rondale Moore run for 3 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-9
51.7%
PURDUE Penalty, Illegal Block (-9 Yards) to the Prdue 9Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+15
51.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terry Wright for 15 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+76
57.1%
Rondale Moore run for 76 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 2:0344% → 46%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.5%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
56.4%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
55.9%
TJ Green pass complete to Cameron Green for 11 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
55.1%
Kyric McGowan run for 17 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
54.4%
TJ Green pass complete to John Moten IV for 18 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
54.2%
John Moten IV run for 1 yd to the Prdue 16Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
54.1%
TJ Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
55.0%
TJ Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
54.2%
Charlie Kuhbander 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:1455% → 54%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
55.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 19 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
56.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Isaac Zico for 11 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
57.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
56.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 14 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
57.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to D.J. Knox for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-5
57.6%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by Trent Goens for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 16
OPP 36
0
55.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 16
OPP 36
+53
53.8%
Spencer Evans 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3247% → 47%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
53.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
52.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
52.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
53.4%
Jake Collins punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:2455% → 56%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
55.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 9 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
56.4%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
55.7%
Elijah Sindelar run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
50
0
55.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass intercepted Nate Hall return for no gain to the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:4349% → 58%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+40
50.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 40 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
49.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 14 yds to the Prdue 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.8%
TJ Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:0943% → 46%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
43.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 9 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
44.2%
Tario Fuller run for no gain to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
43.5%
Tario Fuller run for 2 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
43.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 16 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
44.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+14
43.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 14 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
45.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
44.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+3
43.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Tario Fuller for 3 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
45.5%
Spencer Evans 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3657% → 57%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
42.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
43.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
43.4%
Jake Collins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
43.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass intercepted Montre Hartage return for 17 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:4362% → 73%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
38.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+8
37.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 8 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
36.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 12 yds to the Prdue 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
36.3%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd to the Prdue 4Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds for a TD NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 8 (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17END OF HALF
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:3131% → 30%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
30.6%
PURDUE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Prdue 15Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+14
29.8%
Markell Jones run for 14 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
29.9%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
29.5%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 23 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:1570% → 73%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
29.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 12 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
29.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
27.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
27.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:3030% → 46%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+45
29.7%
D.J. Knox run for 45 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
31.7%
D.J. Knox run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
31.5%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+8
30.2%
David Blough run for 8 yds to the Nwest 15 David Blough fumbled, recovered by Prdue David Blough for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
46.1%
David Blough pass complete to Jared Sparks for 13 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4961% → 61%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
39.1%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
37.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
39.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
39.4%
Jake Collins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5340% → 39%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
40.3%
David Blough run for no gain to the Prdue 26Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
39.7%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+6
38.4%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 6 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
38.6%
Joe Schopper punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2663% → 65%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
37.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
36.9%
TJ Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+11
37.9%
TJ Green pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 11 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
34.0%
John Moten IV run for 1 yd to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-4
33.8%
Cameron Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 43 Cameron Green fumbled, recovered by Nwest Cameron GreenSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+7
35.7%
TJ Green pass complete to John Moten IV for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 6
50
0
34.8%
Jake Collins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 6:3438% → 43%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
37.9%
D.J. Knox run for 5 yds to the Prdue 19Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+7
38.0%
David Blough run for 7 yds to the Prdue 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
38.1%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
38.0%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 4 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+16
37.5%
D.J. Knox run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
50
+3
40.7%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+18
40.8%
David Blough pass complete to Terry Wright for 3 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
42.6%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
42.4%
Markell Jones run for 5 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+7
40.3%
David Blough run for 7 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
42.1%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 17Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
41.8%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for no gain to the Nwest 17Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+7
35.9%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 7 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
43.2%
Spencer Evans 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1563% → 62%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
38.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
38.0%
Jake Collins punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1541% → 38%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
40.6%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 15Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 14
OWN 15
0
40.0%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+13
38.0%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 13 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
38.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:3665% → 68%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
35.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 7 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+7
33.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 7 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
31.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
32.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+22
34.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 22 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
29.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
29.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+2
29.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 2 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
32.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1839% → 34%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
39.3%
PURDUE Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 29Similar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+4
38.3%
David Blough pass complete to Terry Wright for 4 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
38.1%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-3
36.2%
David Blough sacked by Jordan Thompson for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 30Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+2
34.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 50 yds , Riley Lees returns for 2 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28Uncategorized
21 plays · 46 yds · 7:3071% → 96%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
29.1%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
26.9%
TJ Green run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+20
26.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 20 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
22.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
22.5%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
22.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Prdue 38Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
19.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+3
19.7%
TJ Green pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 3 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
20.8%
TJ Green run for 2 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-11
13.5%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the Prdue 43Similar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 21
OPP 43
+4
13.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+6
13.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+14
12.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Prdue 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-7
6.6%
TJ Green run for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 26Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 17
OPP 26
-4
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 30Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 21
OPP 30
-2
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:50
David Blough pass complete to Jared Sparks for 13 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST down
+15.8
TD · Q2 0:37
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds for a TD NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 8 (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q2 7:06
TJ Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com