2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreNEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:31 · Drue Chrisman punt for 53 yds , JD Spielman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:15: Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds for a TD, (Barret Pickering KICK) — NEB win probability +11.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:39: J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:43: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 9 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:46: Barret Pickering 18 yd FG GOOD — NEB win probability +6.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:57: Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 17 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK) — NEB win probability +21.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEB made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 12:14NEB 4th & 2 at OSU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.5%57% to convertField goal13.3%−0.225% to makePunt13.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:23OSU 4th & 2 at NEB 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.3%57% to convertField goal84.2%−0.170% to makePunt83.5%−0.8average punt
- Q1 7:10NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.4%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q1 4:20NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 24, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snapGo for it15.0%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%average punt
- Q2 12:31OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 34, up 9Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snapGo for it85.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 11:03NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 28, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.8%average punt
- Q3 8:49NEB 4th & 12 at NEB 46, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snapGo for it38.9%−3.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.1%average punt
- Q3 4:28NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 30, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it25.8%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q3 3:42OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 37, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snapGo for it72.3%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.9%average punt
- Q3 2:58NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 13, down 2Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 25.5% before the snapGo for it27.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.7%−2.2average punt
- Q4 13:35NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 40, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.5%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%average punt
- Q4 13:11OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 30, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snapGo for it85.6%−1.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.9%average punt
- Q4 12:25NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 37, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.3%average punt
- Q4 11:06OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 24, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snapGo for it85.7%−1.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.2%average punt
- Q4 7:46NEB 4th & 1 at OSU 1, down 9Numbers favored go for it by 6.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snapGo for it15.8%59% to convertField goalTheir call9.0%−6.894% to makePunt1.6%−14.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 9:56NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.7%97% to makeGo for two14.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:11OSU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%97% to makeGo for two84.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:51OSU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:52NEB Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.6%97% to makeGo for two20.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:15NEB Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.1%97% to makeGo for two32.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:39OSU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.3%97% to makeGo for two76.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:43OSU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:52OSU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick95.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:57NEB Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.2%97% to makeGo for two9.6%−0.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:5410% → 13%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
89.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 5 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-7
89.4%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Dre'Mont Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+7
89.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 7 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+13
88.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 13 yds to the OhSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+5
88.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OhSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0788% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3SF4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5713% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD7 plays · 68 yds · 1:2687% → 88%
Q1 6:20
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+12
86.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Demario McCall for 12 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
86.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
87.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 42 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3413% → 13%
OSUDrive 6TD9 plays · 57 yds · 2:1688% → 89%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
87.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the OhSt 28Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 19
OWN 34
+14
87.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
87.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 13 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+9
87.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 9 yds to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7FUMBLE10 plays · 59 yds · 2:5612% → 13%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
88.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 11 yds to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+41
88.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 41 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+13
87.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 13 yds to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
87.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 4 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+6
87.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Bryan Reimers for 6 yds to the OhSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-16
87.1%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 16 yards to the OhSt 26 Adrian Martinez fumbled, recovered by OhSt at OhSt 26.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5688% → 87%
NEBDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2312% → 12%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
88.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Neb 26 for a 1ST down. Jordan Fuller ejected for targeting. Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10FUMBLE5 plays · 32 yds · 2:0388% → 88%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
87.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 9 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
88.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 26 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-10
88.2%
Dwayne Haskins sacked by JoJo Domann for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 36 Dwayne Haskins fumbled, recovered by Neb Carlos Davis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11TD11 plays · 64 yds · 3:4213% → 21%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
87.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 11 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+14
86.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 14 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+15
86.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Mike Williams for 15 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12FUMBLE3 plays · 34 yds · 0:2682% → 82%
NEBDrive 13TD11 plays · 47 yds · 3:3220% → 36%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14END OF HALF4 plays · -2 yds · 0:1170% → 69%
OSUDrive 15INT10 plays · 57 yds · 3:2470% → 70%
Q3 14:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
70.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 7 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
70.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 7 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+22
69.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 22 yds to the Neb 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
69.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass intercepted, touchback. Lamar Jackson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 2:1837% → 38%
Q3 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
62.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 5 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
59.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 3 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-5
58.3%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 46 Adrian Martinez fumbled, recovered by Neb Adrian MartinezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0062% → 80%
Q3 8:13
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
62.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 10 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
65.9%
Mike Weber run for 7 yds to the Neb 14 Mike Weber fumbled, recovered by OhSt NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
65.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 7 yds to the Neb 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0225% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3776% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3926% → 24%
OSUDrive 21TD3 plays · 47 yds · 1:0878% → 90%
Q3 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
89.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 9 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4812% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1888% → 87%
Q4 13:11
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
86.6%
Drue Chrisman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by JD Spielman at the Neb 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3413% → 11%
Q4 12:25
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
89.4%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 39 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4489% → 87%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
88.8%
Dwayne Haskins run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 22 Dwayne Haskins fumbled, recovered by OhSt Dwayne HaskinsSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+2
88.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 2 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
87.0%
Drue Chrisman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by JD Spielman at the Neb 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26FG8 plays · 65 yds · 3:0612% → 19%
OSUDrive 27TD8 plays · 82 yds · 2:3288% → 97%
Q4 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+12
88.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 12 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
88.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 17 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
96.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 42 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:444% → 25%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
96.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Maurice Washington for 20 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
95.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 11 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
95.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Mike Williams for 6 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
96.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 5 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
74.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 17 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 29Uncategorized9 plays · 13 yds · 2:2490% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:57
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 17 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)
-21
TD · Q3 5:39
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+14.8
TD · Q2 0:15
Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds for a TD, (Barret Pickering KICK)
-11.5