Try the model
NEB

Nebraska 31 at Northwestern 34

NU
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Drew Luckenbaugh 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:07: Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Barret Pickering KICK) — NEB win probability +20.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:40: Maurice Washington run for 3 yds for a TD, (A. Martinez Run For Two-point Conversion) — NEB win probability +18.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:31: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 61 yds for a TD, (Drew Luckenbaugh KICK) — NU win probability +15.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:12: Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 5 yds for a TD, (Drew Luckenbaugh KICK) — NU win probability +47.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Drew Luckenbaugh 37 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +20.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:08NU 4th & 10 at NEB 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    59.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12NEB 4th & 6 at NU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:40NU 4th & 1 at NU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:48NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:39NU 4th & 19 at NEB 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:44NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:33NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:52NU 4th & 3 at NU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:48NU 4th & 9 at NU 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:26NU 4th & 10 at NEB 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−13.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:57NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 43, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−3.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:41NEB 4th & 13 at NU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:12NU 4th & 10 at NU 25, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:45NU 4th & 10 at NEB 26, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−4.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:27NU 4th & 13 at NEB 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−4.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:02NEB 4th & 7 at NU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:32NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:41NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:01NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:42NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:07NEB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:40NEB Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:31NU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:12NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−7.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2841% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.8%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Jerald Foster) to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
58.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 5 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+33
58.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 33 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
58.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
58.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 42 yds for a TD, (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1758% → 58%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
58.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 19 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 46 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
58.5%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 47Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+1
58.2%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the Neb 46Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
58.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
57.8%
Jake Collins punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:4642% → 45%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
57.8%
Maurice Washington run for 5 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+19
57.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 19 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
57.1%
Maurice Washington run for 2 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
57.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Maurice Washington for 6 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
56.8%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
56.6%
Maurice Washington run for 3 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
56.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
56.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
55.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+6
55.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 6 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
55.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
55.4%
Barret Pickering 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1656% → 55%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
55.9%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
55.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
55.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
55.2%
Jake Collins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by JD Spielman at the Neb 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4145% → 45%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
55.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 5 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
54.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 2 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+1
54.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 1 yd to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
54.7%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 5:0655% → 52%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
54.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+11
54.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 11 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
55.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to John Moten IV for 2 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
54.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 1 yd to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+8
54.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 8 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
55.1%
John Moten IV run for 8 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
54.7%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
55.1%
John Moten IV run for 1 yd to the Neb 31Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-3
55.1%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 34Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 12
OPP 34
-7
53.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 41Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 19
OPP 41
0
51.5%
Jake Collins punt for 32 yds, downed at the Neb 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:4848% → 49%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
52.1%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Jack StollSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+12
52.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 12 yds to the Neb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
51.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 6 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+13
50.6%
Adrian Martinez run for 13 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
49.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-10
49.8%
Martinez, Adrian rush for 1 yard to the NEBRASKA41, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding 10 yards to the NEBRASKA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+3
50.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 3 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+7
51.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 7 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
51.1%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Charlie Mangieri at the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:5951% → 61%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
50.8%
Thorson, Clayton pass incomplete to McGowan, Kyric, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Williams, Aaron) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
51.0%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+17
51.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 17 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
52.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+17
51.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 17 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
53.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to John Moten IV for 8 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+3
53.1%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Neb 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
53.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
52.0%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
61.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 21 yds for a TD, (Drew Luckenbaugh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4945% → 44%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
55.1%
Maurice Washington run for no gain to the Neb 38Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
55.2%
JD Spielman run for 5 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
54.8%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
56.5%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3859% → 58%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
59.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 8 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
60.3%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
58.5%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
59.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 9 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-2
61.3%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
59.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
58.2%
Jake Collins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by JD Spielman at the Neb 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:3844% → 31%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
55.8%
Adrian Martinez run for no gain to the Neb 23Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
55.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-10
69.4%
A. Martinez sacked by T. Williams for -13 yds,A. Martinez fumbled, recovered by Nwest E. Brown IV,E. Brown IV return for 10 yds, (D. Luckenbaugh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 1:5832% → 44%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
68.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 22Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
68.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Mike Williams for 4 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
68.6%
Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
68.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Mike Williams for 24 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
65.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Mike Williams for 13 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
64.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+18
65.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 18 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
56.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 12 yds for a TD, (Barret Pickering PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:2263% → 65%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
63.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
65.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to John Moten IV for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:0562% → 66%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
62.4%
Solomon Vault run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
62.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+14
61.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 14 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
64.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
63.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+18
62.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 18 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
65.6%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Antonio Reed return for no gain to the Neb 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15TD
15 plays · 97 yds · 5:3538% → 65%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
61.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Neb 6Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+12
62.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 12 yds to the Neb 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
61.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Neb 19Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
61.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+12
63.2%
Adrian Martinez run for 12 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
60.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 26 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
57.9%
Adrian Martinez run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+13
58.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 13 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
56.4%
Adrian Martinez run for 6 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+1
56.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+4
57.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 4 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
56.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+10
56.2%
Devine Ozigbo run for 10 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.1%
Adrian Martinez run for no gain to the Nwest 1Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0842% → 40%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
42.3%
John Moten IV run for 4 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 16
-3
42.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Ben Stille for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 13Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
40.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 9
OWN 13
+19
39.5%
Jake Collins punt for 38 yds , JD Spielman returns for 19 yds to the Nwest 32 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (CJ Smith) to the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:0865% → 67%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
35.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Jaron WoodyardSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
35.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 9 yds Jack Stoll fumbled, forced by Jared McGee, recovered by Neb Jack StollSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
34.2%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
33.2%
Adrian Martinez pass intercepted, touchback. JR Pace return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:4541% → 40%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
40.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 15 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
41.1%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
39.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
50
+4
44.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
44.9%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
44.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
44.7%
Thorson, Clayton pass incomplete to Jefferson, JJ, PENALTY NEBRASKA pass interference (Bootle, Dicaprio) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
46.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
46.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
43.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for no gain to the Neb 24Similar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
40.1%
Drew Luckenbaugh 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:2067% → 90%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+37
33.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 37 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
30.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 21 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
28.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+11
28.6%
Maurice Washington run for 11 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.0%
Maurice Washington run for 3 yds for a TD, (A. Martinez Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5516% → 32%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
15.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 7 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
16.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+61
32.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 61 yds for a TD, (Drew Luckenbaugh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1274% → 75%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
26.0%
Maurice Washington run for 3 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
24.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Maurice Washington for 6 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
24.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
25.2%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:3129% → 31%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
29.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+27
29.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 27 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
28.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 6 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
31.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 4 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
30.9%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Tre Neal return for 14 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23FG
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:3981% → 87%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
18.8%
Maurice Washington run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+9
17.8%
Adrian Martinez run for 9 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
17.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Bryan Reimers for 7 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
17.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 2 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
18.0%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 14 Adrian Martinez fumbled, recovered by Neb Maurice Washington for a 1ST down Maurice Washington run for 3 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
17.2%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 12
OPP 16
0
16.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 12
OPP 16
-1
15.1%
Maurice Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 17Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+34
13.0%
Barret Pickering 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24FG
18 plays · 62 yds · 3:1013% → 19%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
12.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
10.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+16
9.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 16 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
13.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
13.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dicaprio Bootle) to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
13.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Chad Hanaoka for 14 yds to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
16.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
15.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
13.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+16
10.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 16 yds to the Neb 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
15.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 3 yds to the Neb 7Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
11.5%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (4 Yards) to the Neb 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
12.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
11.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Luke Gifford for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 13Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
9.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 2:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
19.3%
Drew Luckenbaugh 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:1991% → 90%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
9.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
8.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+3
8.6%
JD Spielman run for 3 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
9.6%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 43 yds, downed at the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 1:4711% → 64%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
11.1%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Carlos Davis) to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
11.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
10.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 5 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+11
10.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 11 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
11.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Blake Hance) to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+9
9.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+32
9.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 32 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+27
14.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 27 yds to the Neb 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
16.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
63.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 5 yds for a TD, (Drew Luckenbaugh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
45.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 52%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
40.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 7 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-5
42.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Hunter Miller) to the Nwest 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+5
43.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 5 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
47.8%
Adrian Martinez pass intercepted, touchback. JR Pace return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 29FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
64.7%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Neb 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
64.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 3 yds to the Neb 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+1
62.4%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the Neb 19Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
79.4%
Drew Luckenbaugh 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:12
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 5 yds for a TD, (Drew Luckenbaugh KICK)
+47.5
FG · OT 0:00
Drew Luckenbaugh 37 yd FG GOOD
+20.7
TD · Q3 7:07
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Barret Pickering KICK)
-20.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com