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TROY

Troy 24 at Nebraska 19

NEB
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.3NEB 53.3%Barret Pickering 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 10 · Q3 10:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:25 · Barret Pickering 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+13.2Home team on offense−5.7Garbage-time factor−3.4Score differential−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:12: B.J. Smith run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +19.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:02: Andrew Bunch pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK) — NEB win probability +8.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:45: B.J. Smith run for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +18.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:55: Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NEB win probability +14.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:15: B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Neb 28 — TROY win probability +12.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:07NEB 4th & 15 at NEB 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:24TROY 4th & 2 at NEB 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 3 at NEB 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:17NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:33NEB 4th & 7 at TROY 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:13TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:04NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:54NEB 4th & 14 at NEB 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:25NEB 4th & 6 at TROY 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:25TROY 4th & 5 at NEB 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−1.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:02NEB 4th & 4 at TROY 15, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−12.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:34NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:45NEB 4th & 8 at TROY 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−1.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:40TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 23, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−5.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 5:12TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:02NEB Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:45TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:55NEB Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    18.5%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
79.5%
Deondre Douglas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+3
79.5%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+7
79.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 7 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
79.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 79 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5479% → 78%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
79.0%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 5 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
79.0%
Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
79.0%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-10
79.0%
Andrew Bunch sacked by Tyler Murray for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 24Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 18
OWN 24
+3
78.5%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 15
OWN 27
+36
78.4%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the NEBRASKA 32 NEBRASKA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 3:0022% → 23%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
78.2%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Luke Gifford for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+39
78.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 39 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
77.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 5 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
77.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Damion Willis, broken up by Aaron WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+3
78.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 3 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
76.8%
Tyler Sumpter 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Neb 25Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 11 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
77.2%
Andrew Bunch run for 11 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
77.6%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for no gain to the Neb 47Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
77.5%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Jack Stoll for 9 yds Jack Stoll fumbled, forced by Cedarius Rookard, recovered by Troy Hunter ReeseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
75.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 5 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-2
75.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
75.8%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted Lamar Jackson return for no gain to the Neb 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+29
75.5%
Maurice Washington run for 29 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
75.9%
Maurice Washington run for 1 yd to the Neb 37Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
75.8%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 32Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 14
OWN 32
-8
75.5%
Maurice Washington run for a loss of 8 yards to the Neb 24Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 22
OWN 24
+15
75.2%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
76.0%
Maurice Washington run for 8 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-3
76.5%
Andrew Bunch sacked by Tron Folsom for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 44Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
76.2%
Andrew Bunch pass intercepted Tyler Murray return for 6 yds to the Troy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5927% → 27%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
73.4%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
73.3%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
72.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for no gain to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
73.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5674% → 65%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-5
73.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 2Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 15
OWN 2
+7
73.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 7 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+1
72.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Neb 10Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 7
OWN 10
+58
65.0%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 48 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 58 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:3866% → 63%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
66.2%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for 16 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
66.7%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for 12 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
67.4%
Greg Bell run for 11 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
68.2%
Andrew Bunch pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Marcus JonesSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
68.1%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+7
67.4%
Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
68.2%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 6 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
68.2%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 1
OPP 10
-1
67.4%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 11Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 2
OPP 11
-5
66.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
63.3%
Barret Pickering 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:2136% → 57%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
64.2%
Sawyer Smith run for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+57
64.3%
Sawyer Smith run for 57 yds to the Neb 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
62.6%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (Sawyer Smith) to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+14
62.6%
Sawyer Smith run for no gain to the Neb 28 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul (Mohamed Barry) to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
62.6%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Neb 9 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul (Tyrin Ferguson) to the Neb 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
62.6%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
43.5%
B.J. Smith run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:0249% → 60%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.4%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Maurice Washington for no gain to the Neb 35Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+33
49.0%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 33 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
52.2%
Maurice Washington run for 21 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
52.4%
Maurice Washington run for 2 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
60.4%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:4943% → 45%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
56.7%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-7
57.0%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Freedom Akinmoladun for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+7
56.0%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
55.4%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 46 yds, downed at the Neb 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
53.0%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for 2 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
53.0%
Andrew Bunch pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Tron FolsomSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
52.3%
Andrew Bunch pass incomplete to Tyjon Lindsey, broken up by Marcus JonesSimilar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+8
52.0%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 51 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 8 yds to the Troy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:5048% → 48%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
52.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-7
52.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy Kaleb BarkerSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-3
52.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
50.4%
Greg Bell run for 14 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
51.3%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
52.3%
JD Spielman run for 1 yd to the Neb 42Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+9
51.2%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 9 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
53.1%
Andrew Bunch sacked by Hunter Reese for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 20
OWN 41
0
51.0%
Andrew Bunch pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+6
49.9%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Greg Bell for 6 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+44
49.4%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 44 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 8 Cedarius Rookard fumbled, recovered by Neb Cam TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1851% → 53%
Q3 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
50.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Troy 7Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
50.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
48.9%
Andrew Bunch pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
53.3%
Barret Pickering 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
49.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 13 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
47.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 3 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+17
47.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 17 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
46.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Tray EaffordSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
46.6%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Neb 42Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+5
47.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 5 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
48.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Sam Letton, broken up by Tre NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:0650% → 52%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
49.9%
Maurice Washington run for 20 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
52.9%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for 1 yard to the TROY41 (Murray, Tyler), PENALTY NEB illegal block (Andre Hunt) 10 yards to the NEB48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 20
OWN 48
-4
50.1%
Maurice Washington run for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 44Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 24
OWN 44
+2
49.1%
Andrew Bunch run for no gain to the Neb 46 Andrew Bunch fumbled, recovered by Neb Andrew Bunch , return for 2 yds to the Neb 46 Andrew Bunch fumbled, recovered by Neb Matt FarniokSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 22
OWN 46
+20
47.7%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Maurice Washington for 5 yds to the NEBRASKA 49 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, illegal helmet contact (15 Yards) to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
54.5%
Maurice Washington run for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+12
54.5%
Maurice Washington run for 12 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
54.6%
Andrew Bunch run for 3 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-2
54.6%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for 8 yds to the Troy 10 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+3
54.6%
Maurice Washington run for 3 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+2
52.6%
Andrew Bunch run for 2 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
52.3%
Barret Pickering 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · -4 yds · 3:0252% → 52%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.9%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
46.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 2 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
46.9%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 13 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
44.8%
TROY Penalty, false start (B.J. Smith) to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-8
46.9%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Carlos Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 23
OWN 34
-5
48.3%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (Kaleb Barker) to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 28
OWN 29
+6
48.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 6 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 35
-14
46.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 1 yd to the Troy 36 TROY Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 36
OWN 21
0
47.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 55 yds, downed at the Neb 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
47.6%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-3
50.4%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 29Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+5
46.6%
Andrew Bunch run for 5 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
48.3%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+4
51.0%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
50.2%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 14:34
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-5
48.3%
NEBRASKA Penalty, delay of game (Caleb Lightbourn) to the Neb 38Similar
Q4 14:34
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
46.3%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 24 yds, downed at the Troy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:3463% → 89%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
37.3%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
37.3%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Sam LettonSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+13
38.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 13 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
35.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 1 yd to the Neb 47Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
35.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Tray Eafford, broken up by Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+8
36.6%
Barker, Kaleb pass incomplete to Douglas, D., PENALTY NEB pass interference (Aaron Williams) 8 yards to the NEB39, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
35.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the Neb 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy Kaleb BarkerSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
35.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 1 yd to the Neb 38Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+17
30.4%
Kaleb Barker run for 17 yds to the Neb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
28.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 5 yds to the Neb 16 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (Sidney Davis) to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+26
10.7%
B.J. Smith run for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5015% → 34%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.5%
Andrew Bunch run for no gain to the Neb 27 Andrew Bunch fumbled, forced by Marcus Webb, recovered by Neb Maurice Washington , return for 2 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
14.6%
Maurice Washington run for 5 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
14.5%
Maurice Washington run for 4 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
15.4%
Andrew Bunch run for 5 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tron Folsom) to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
18.0%
Maurice Washington run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+9
16.0%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Maurice Washington for 9 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-10
17.6%
Devine Ozigbo rush over left tackle for 7 yards to the TROY32, PENALTY NEB holding (Brenden Jaimes) 10 yards to the TROY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+7
14.8%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 7 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 8
OPP 42
+26
14.9%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Kurt Rafdal for 26 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
20.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 8 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+1
20.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Troy 7Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
34.4%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:1584% → 85%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.4%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
16.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.2%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
14.6%
Sumpter, Tyler punt 57 yards to the NEB15, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TROY illegal formation (Murray, Tyler) 5 yards to the TROY23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
15.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tyjon Lindsey at the Neb 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
23.1%
Andrew Bunch pass incomplete to Greg BellSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
21.8%
Andrew Bunch pass intercepted Will Sunderland return for 4 yds to the Neb 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
9.6%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+1
9.3%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+3
9.8%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
9.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:12
B.J. Smith run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-19
TD · Q4 6:45
B.J. Smith run for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-18
TD · Q4 2:55
Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com