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NU

Northwestern 24 at Minnesota 14

MINN
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:08 · Jake Collins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense−29.2Score differential−12.0Pregame prior+0.6Garbage-time factor−12.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:18: Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +11.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:18: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 23 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST down — NU win probability +6.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:12: Clayton Thorson run for 13 yds for a TD (Drew Luckenbaugh PAT MISSED) — NU win probability +10.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:07: Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds for a TD (Clayton Thorson pass to Cameron Green for Two-Point Conversion) — NU win probability +25.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:32: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +9.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:04NU 4th & 1 at NU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:17NU 4th & 3 at MINN 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:20MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:30NU 4th & 7 at NU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:49MINN 4th & 1 at NU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−1.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:38NU 4th & 6 at MINN 24, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12MINN 4th & 6 at NU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NU 4th & 8 at MINN 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:45MINN 4th & 2 at NU 20, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%−1.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−12.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:45NU 4th & 11 at NU 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−3.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 7 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:49NU 4th & 4 at MINN 11, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−5.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:08NU 4th & 5 at NU 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:01MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:44NU 4th & 16 at MINN 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:20NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:18MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:12NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:07NU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    83.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:32MINN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
58.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Seth Green for 6 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+9
58.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
58.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
58.7%
Bryce Williams run for no gain to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
58.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
58.7%
Jacob Herbers punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
58.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+19
58.9%
Jake Collins punt for 42 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for 19 yds to the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
59.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 14 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
59.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+16
59.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 16 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
59.5%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted Nate Hall return for no gain to the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
58.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+15
58.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 15 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
58.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 2 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
58.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 9 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
58.3%
Solomon Vault run for 7 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
58.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Minn 47Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
58.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Minn 47Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
58.6%
Jake Collins punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
58.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 19Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+13
58.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 13 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.9%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted Nate Hall return for no gain to the Minn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:4343% → 48%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
57.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+10
57.4%
Berkeley Holman run for 10 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
57.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 22 yds to the Minn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
57.0%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Pugh, Trey, PENALTY MINN pass interference (Martin, Kamal) 9 yards to the MINN2, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Luckenbaugh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
53.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 3 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
54.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
53.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete, broken up by Earnest Brown IVSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
53.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
53.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 5Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+2
53.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
53.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
54.1%
Jake Collins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1154% → 52%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
54.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 14 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
55.0%
Seth Green run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+1
55.1%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
53.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
52.2%
Seth Green run for no gain to the Nwest 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:2250% → 54%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
49.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
49.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+11
48.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 11 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
47.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 11 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
47.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+12
47.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 12 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
47.1%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
47.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 4 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
47.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley Lees, broken up by Chris WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 6
OPP 24
-14
45.6%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Blake Cashman for a loss of 14 yards to the Minn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:1349% → 61%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
48.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
48.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+8
48.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 8 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
50.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 8 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
50.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
50.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 7 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 31
0
51.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+29
50.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 29 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
51.2%
Tanner Morgan run for no gain to the Nwest 2 Tanner Morgan fumbled, recovered by Minn Mohamed IbrahimSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
49.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Nwest 1Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:0648% → 61%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
52.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 23 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
50.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 19 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
39.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 13 yds for a TD (Drew Luckenbaugh PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0045% → 47%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
45.4%
Tanner Morgan run for 7 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+15
47.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 15 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
48.5%
Tanner Morgan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-7
47.7%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Trent Goens for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+12
45.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Jonathan Femi-Cole for 12 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
46.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Travis WhillockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
44.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 21 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
42.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
41.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+11
42.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
41.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete, broken up by Blake CashmanSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
41.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+1
42.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Chad Hanaoka for 1 yd to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
44.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, broken up by Coney DurrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 5:0445% → 44%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
45.4%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Autman-Bell, C, PENALTY NU pass interference (Ruiz, Cameron) 15 yards to the MINN49, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
48.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 7 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
49.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
48.6%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
49.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+7
50.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
50.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 7 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+2
50.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-1
48.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
44.2%
Emmit Carpenter 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
39.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
37.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 8 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
37.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Chris Williamson for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 19
OWN 24
-1
39.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+9
40.6%
Chad Hanaoka run for 9 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
41.2%
Jake Collins punt for 50 yds, downed at the Minn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:5140% → 39%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
40.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 2 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+10
40.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 10 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
40.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 17 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
43.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+3
39.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
50
0
38.6%
Jacob Herbers punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 3:1166% → 92%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
34.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 12
-2
34.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 10Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+17
35.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 17 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
32.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Berkeley HolmanSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
33.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+68
33.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 68 yds to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds for a TD (Clayton Thorson pass to Cameron Green for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
14.8%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Paddy Fisher for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 34 Tanner Morgan fumbled, recovered by Minn Tanner Morgan , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+8
13.8%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 9 yards to the Minn 17 Tanner Morgan fumbled, recovered by Nwest Joe Gaziano , return for 0 yards , return for 8 yds to the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1993% → 94%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
7.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
7.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Minn 11Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
7.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Minn 11Similar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
5.6%
Jake Collins 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:176% → 15%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
6.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 23 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
6.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
7.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+14
7.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 14 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
5.6%
Morgan, Tanner pass complete to Johnson, Tyler for 10 yards to the NU0, clock 05:37, PENALTY MINN personal foul (Ibrahim, M) 15 yards to the NU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
+4
5.3%
Tanner Morgan run for 4 yds to the Nwest 21 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+15
5.2%
Tanner Morgan run for 10 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, personal foul (Nate Hall) to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
5.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Travis WhillockSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
5.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
14.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:2489% → 90%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
11.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
10.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+2
11.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
10.2%
Jake Collins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
6.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod Bateman, broken up by Cameron RuizSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
6.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Seth GreenSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
5.8%
Tanner Morgan run for 7 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 3
OWN 42
-5
6.2%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Earnest Brown IV for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:1794% → 97%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
6.5%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-1
6.7%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 14
OPP 41
-2
4.1%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
3.5%
Jake Collins punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
2.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-10
3.0%
Morgan, Tanner pass complete to Ibrahim, M for 10 yards to the MINN37 (O'Rourke, Devin), PENALTY MINN holding (Olson, Conner) 10 yards to the MINN17, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:07
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds for a TD (Clayton Thorson pass to Cameron Green for Two-Point Conversion)
-25.4
TD · Q2 2:18
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q2 1:12
Clayton Thorson run for 13 yds for a TD (Drew Luckenbaugh PAT MISSED)
-10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com