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NMSU

New Mexico State 10 at Minnesota 48

MINN
2018 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2018 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:44 · Payton Theisler punt for 43 yds, downed at the Minn 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior+42.1Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Blowout margin+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:17: Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 13 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:35: Seth Green run for 9 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +0.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:21: Seth Green run for 3 yds for a TD Carpenter,Emmit kick attempt good, PENALTY MINN personal foul (Andries, Blaise) 15 yards to the NMSU18, NO PLAY. (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +3.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:57: Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 33 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +3.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 11:05: Emmit Carpenter 27 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:10MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:44NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:21MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:48NMSU 4th & 10 at MINN 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:17MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:10NMSU 4th & 7 at MINN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:35NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 37, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:35NMSU 4th & 1 at MINN 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:45NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:19NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 26, up 25
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:55NMSU 4th & 5 at MINN 41, down 25
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:05MINN 4th & 4 at NMSU 9, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:05NMSU 4th & 19 at MINN 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:40MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 27, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:04NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:16MINN 4th & 5 at NMSU 6, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:16NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:15MINN 4th & 2 at NMSU 30, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:19MINN 4th & 5 at NMSU 22, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:19NMSU 4th & 16 at MINN 43, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:53NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 12, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:48MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:17NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:35MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:21MINN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:57MINN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:53MINN Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.1%
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
93.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 69 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.9%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
92.9%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Jacob Herbers punt for 43 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Roy LopezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.5%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
92.6%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+4
92.6%
Matt Romero run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
92.6%
Payton Theisler punt for 43 yds, downed at the Minn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
92.2%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 5 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
92.2%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
92.2%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
92.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 45 yds , OJ Clark returns for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:238% → 9%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
91.7%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 4 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
91.7%
Matt Romero pass complete to Anthony Muse for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+6
91.7%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
91.6%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
91.3%
Matt Romero pass intercepted Thomas Barber return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:2292% → 92%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
50
0
91.6%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
50
+4
91.6%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+14
91.6%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 14 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+23
91.7%
Rodney Smith run for 23 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
91.7%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.2%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
91.8%
Romero, Matt pass incomplete to Boone, J., PENALTY MINN pass interference (Huff, Jacob) 15 yards to the NMSU35, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
91.7%
Matt Romero run for 20 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
91.4%
Matt Romero run for 7 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-11
91.4%
Matt Romero sacked by Blake Cashman for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+4
91.7%
Matt Romero run for 4 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
91.8%
Payton Theisler punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
91.6%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 4 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
91.6%
Zack Annexstad run for a loss of 12 yards to the Minn 12 Zack Annexstad fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Terrill Hanks , return for no gain to the Minn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:399% → 11%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
90.6%
Matt Romero run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 13Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
88.6%
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 13 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.7%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
89.7%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete, broken up by DeShawnte LloydSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
89.4%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
89.3%
Jacob Herbers punt for 51 yds , OJ Clark returns for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:0511% → 14%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
88.9%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
88.7%
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+23
88.3%
Matt Romero pass complete to Drew Dan for 8 yds to the MINNESOTA 46 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
88.1%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 5 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
87.5%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-2
87.7%
Matt Romero sacked by Carter Coughlin for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
87.1%
Dylan Brown 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 65
OPP 0
0
86.3%
Brown, Dylan kickoff 62 yards to the MINN3, Smith, Rodney return to the MINN38 (Fergurson, J.), PENALTY NMSU personal foul off-setting, PENALTY MINN illegal block off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3588% → 90%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
87.4%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
50
+8
88.3%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+12
88.4%
Rodney Smith run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
88.6%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 8 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+13
88.6%
Rodney Smith run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
89.5%
Seth Green run for 9 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 54 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.8%
Matt Romero pass complete to Drew Dan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
88.4%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
88.6%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
88.6%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
88.9%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+9
89.2%
Royce Caldwell run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
88.1%
Matt Romero run for 14 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
88.0%
Romero, Matt pass complete to Huntley, Jason for loss of 8 yards to the MINN48 (Cashman, Blake), PENALTY MINN holding (Thomas, Kiondre) 10 yards to the MINN30, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
87.7%
Romero, Matt pass complete to Huntley, Jason for no gain to the MINN30 (Huff, Jacob), PENALTY NMSU holding (Clark, OJ) 10 yards to the MINN40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+6
88.3%
Matt Romero pass complete to Drew Dan for 6 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+13
88.0%
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 13 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
88.0%
Matt Romero run for no gain to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
88.4%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Antonio ShenaultSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:5288% → 92%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+33
87.6%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 33 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
88.6%
Rodney Smith run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
88.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-5
88.8%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
88.8%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 15 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
88.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+12
88.8%
Rodney Smith run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
88.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.0%
Seth Green run for 3 yds for a TD Carpenter,Emmit kick attempt good, PENALTY MINN personal foul (Andries, Blaise) 15 yards to the NMSU18, NO PLAY. (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:369% → 6%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.4%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+76
94.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 51 yds , Antoine Winfield Jr. returns for 76 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:266% → 6%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.9%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
94.0%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
94.2%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Kiondre ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
94.4%
Payton Theisler punt for 52 yds , Antoine Winfield Jr. returns for no gain to the Minn 16 Antoine Winfield Jr. fumbled, recovered by Minn Antoine Winfield Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:1495% → 98%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
94.7%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 18 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
94.7%
Rodney Smith run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
94.8%
Rodney Smith run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.9%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Demetrius Douglas, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
98.0%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 33 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18END OF HALF
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Christian GibsonSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+19
94.6%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 19 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
93.2%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 11 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
92.2%
Matt Romero pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 4 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
92.0%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-13
92.3%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Izaiah Lottie) to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 19
OWN 47
+13
93.9%
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 13 yds to the Minn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.1%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
98.2%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.1%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+13
98.0%
Jacob Herbers punt for 38 yds , OJ Clark returns for 13 yds to the Minn 39 MINNESOTA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Minn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
97.6%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
97.5%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Drew Dan, broken up by Terell SmithSimilar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
97.6%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+10
97.7%
Payton Theisler punt blocked by Sam Renner blocked by Sam Renner Carter Coughlin return for 10 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5999% → 100%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
98.6%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
98.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+1
98.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
99.5%
Emmit Carpenter 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.5%
Matt Romero pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+24
99.4%
Matt Romero pass complete to Drew Dan for 24 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
99.4%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 49Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+3
99.4%
Matt Romero run for 3 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+12
99.4%
Matt Romero pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.4%
Matt Romero pass complete to Drew Dan for 5 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-4
99.3%
Matt Romero run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 33Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 9
OPP 33
-10
99.4%
Romero, Matt rush for 1 yard to the MINN32 (Martin, Kamal;Devers, Tai'yon), PENALTY NMSU holding (Trujillo, Brian) 10 yards to the MINN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 19
OPP 43
0
99.4%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Payton Theisler punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.7%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
99.7%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Jacob Herbers punt for 30 yds, downed at the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.6%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Drew Dan, broken up by Kiondre ThomasSimilar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.6%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Shea Holebrook Jr.Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Payton Theisler punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25FG
17 plays · 74 yds · 6:21100% → 100%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.7%
Zack Annexstad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
99.7%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 9 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.7%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.7%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 6 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+9
99.8%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 9 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.8%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+3
99.7%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
99.8%
Zack Annexstad run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.8%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-2
99.8%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+21
99.8%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rodney Smith for 21 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.8%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
99.8%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
99.8%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
99.8%
Emmit Carpenter 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Blake CashmanSimilar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Brian Trujillo) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Matt Romero pass complete to Jason Huntley for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 27MISSED FG
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.9%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete, broken up by Shane JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+3
99.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Demetrius DouglasSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
99.9%
Emmit Carpenter 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.9%
Matt Romero pass complete to Anthony Muse for 9 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-1
99.9%
Royce Caldwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Romero, Matt pass incomplete to Dan, Drew (Thomas, Kiondre), PENALTY MINN pass interference (Thomas, Kiondre) 7 yards to the NMSU37, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Matt Romero pass complete to Anthony Muse for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-7
99.9%
Matt Romero sacked by Thomas Rush for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
Romero, Matt pass incomplete, PENALTY MINN pass interference (Thomas, Kiondre) 15 yards to the MINN49, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Matt Romero run for 3 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
99.9%
Matt Romero pass complete to Drew Dan for 9 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-6
99.9%
Matt Romero sacked by Julian Huff for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 16
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 21 yds, downed at the Minn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 29TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+74
99.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 74 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.9%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
99.9%
Matt Romero pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-6
99.9%
Matt Romero pass complete to OJ Clark for 4 yds to the NMxSt 22 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Drew Dan) to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 16
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Matt Romero pass incomplete, broken up by Boye MafeSimilar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 16
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Matt Romero pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 16
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Matt Romero pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 16
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 55 yds, downed at the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 31END OF GAME
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
100.0%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+7
100.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Clay Geary for 7 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+6
100.0%
Bryce Williams run for 6 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
100.0%
Bryce Williams run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+3
100.0%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
100.0%
Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:21
Seth Green run for 3 yds for a TD Carpenter,Emmit kick attempt good, PENALTY MINN personal foul (Andries, Blaise) 15 yards to the NMSU18, NO PLAY. (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 0:57
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 33 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+3.1
TD · Q1 2:17
Matt Romero pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 13 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
-2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com