2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadLAM aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreLAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:47 · Tyler Slaydon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dalton Rigdon at the TexTc 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:22: Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 11 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — LAM win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:07: SaRodorick Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:48: Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LAM made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 15:00TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 42, tiedClose callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 13:50LAM 4th & 11 at LAM 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 10:22LAM 4th & 7 at LAM 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 9:16TTU 4th & 17 at TTU 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q1 6:54LAM 4th & 23 at LAM 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q1 4:42LAM 4th & 14 at LAM 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 15:00TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:07LAM 4th & 2 at TTU 44, down 21Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%57% to convertField goal0.6%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 4:48LAM 4th & 8 at LAM 40, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 2:04LAM 4th & 12 at LAM 23, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 0:17TTU 4th & 1 at LAM 1, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%59% to convertField goal99.6%−0.194% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 15:00LAM 4th & 1 at LAM 45, down 42Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:09TTU 4th & 11 at LAM 49, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 10:21LAM 4th & 5 at LAM 37, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 8:03LAM 4th & 11 at TTU 37, down 42Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.1%40% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00LAM 4th & 1 at midfield, down 56Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 8:47LAM 4th & 8 at TTU 48, down 77Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 7:57TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 21, up 77Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 10:22TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:42TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:07TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:48TTU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:17TTU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:17TTU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:43TTU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:53TTU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:30TTU Touchdown, up 62 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:43TTU Touchdown, up 69 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:47TTU Touchdown, up 76 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
LAMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD8 plays · 51 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
LAMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Quan Bowman for 9 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-10
99.4%
Felton, Dem. rush for 3 yards to the TTU44 (Randle, Rodney), PENALTY TTU holding (Steele, Terence) 10 yards to the TTU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+9
99.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 9 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Zach Austin for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 2
50
-15
99.4%
Bowman, Alan pass complete to Henry, Ta'Zhawn for 12 yards to the LU38 (Rios, Tyler), PENALTY TTU pass interference 15 yards to the TTU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lamar 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
99.3%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Myles Wanza for 11 yds to the Lamar 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 12
OWN 24
-11
99.3%
Darrel Colbert Jr. sacked by Tony Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the Lamar 13Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 23
OWN 13
+49
99.3%
Tyler Slaydon punt for 42 yds , De'Quan Bowman returns for 49 yds to the Lamar 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD1 play · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
99.3%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Myles Wanza for 12 yds to the Lamar 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.3%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Howard for 9 yds to the Lamar 49Similar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+33
99.3%
Tyler Slaydon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TEXASTECH 20 TEXAS TECH Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD12 plays · 80 yds · 4:0099% → 99%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+10
99.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Seth Collins for 10 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
99.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 10 yds to the Lamar 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+9
99.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 9 yds to the Lamar 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
99.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 22 yds to the Lamar 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 10PUNT12 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 12 yds to the Lamar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
99.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah Howard, broken up by Adrian FryeSimilar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+10
99.4%
Colbert, Darrel pass incomplete to Howard, Isaiah, PENALTY TTU holding (Frye, Adrian) 10 yards to the LU48, 1ST DOWN LU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Chaston Brooks, broken up by Desmon SmithSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
99.4%
LAMAR Penalty, delay of game (Darrel Colbert Jr.) to the Lamar 43Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 15
OWN 43
-1
99.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Kirkland Banks for a loss of 1 yard to the Lamar 42Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+14
99.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Derrion Randle for 14 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
99.4%
Tyler Slaydon punt for 31 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TexTc 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11TD11 plays · 87 yds · 3:5399% → 100%
Q2 8:41
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+37
99.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 37 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+4
99.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 4 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+15
99.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 15 yds to the Lamar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 1 yd to the Lamar 36Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+12
99.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 12 yds to the Lamar 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
99.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 10 yds to the Lamar 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
99.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 12 yds to the Lamar 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 4:48
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Tyler Slaydon punt for 31 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TexTc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD2 plays · 71 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
LAMDrive 14PUNT8 plays · -2 yds · 0:130% → 0%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 6 yds to the Lamar 31 LAMAR Penalty, illegal forward pass (Darrel Colbert Jr.) to the Lamar 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD9 plays · 38 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
LAMDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TTUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 17 yds to the Lamar 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Duffey, Jett pass incomplete, PENALTY TTU illegal touching (Rigdon, Dalton) 0 yards to the LU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-2
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for a loss of 2 yards to the Lamar 49Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 11
OPP 49
+32
99.9%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 47 yds, downed at the Lamar 2 TEXAS TECH Penalty, kick catching interference (De'Quan Bowman) to the Lamar 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Howard for 8 yds to the Lamar 25Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Dewan Thompson for 7 yds to the Lamar 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. sacked by Eli Howard for a loss of 4 yards to the Lamar 28Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+9
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to A.J. Walker for 9 yds to the Lamar 37Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
Tyler Slaydon punt for 43 yds , De'Quan Bowman returns for 8 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass intercepted Garrison Mitchell return for 2 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:03
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah Howard, broken up by Damarcus FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22TD9 plays · 63 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 23 yds to the TEXASTECH 40 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (De'Quan Bowman) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
50
+13
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to De'Quan Bowman for 13 yds to the Lamar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
99.9%
Duffey, Jett pass complete to Carter, KeSean for 37 yards to the LU0, PENALTY TTU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the LU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+17
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to KeSean Carter for 17 yds to the Lamar 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Donta Thompson for 11 yds to the Lamar 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 23INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass intercepted Vaughnte Dorsey return for no gain to the TexTc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24TD9 plays · 58 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q3 3:34
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+22
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Seth Collins for 22 yds to the Lamar 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Seth Collins for 15 yds to the Lamar 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Henry, Ta'Zhawn rush for no gain to the LU1, PENALTY LU offside defense 0 yards to the LU1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 25DOWNS7 plays · 25 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
100.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Dewan Thompson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26TD4 plays · 50 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
LAMDrive 27INT TD6 plays · 15 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 12:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
100.0%
Hoy, Jordan pass incomplete to Banks, Kirkland, PENALTY TTU holding (Davis Jr., John) 10 yards to the LU36, 1ST DOWN LU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+48
100.0%
Jordan Hoy pass intercepted for a TD Adrian Frye return for 48 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 28FUMBLE2 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Jordan Hoy run for 6 yds to the Lamar 31 Jordan Hoy fumbled, forced by Riko Jeffers, recovered by TexTc Nelson MbanasorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29TD5 plays · 31 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 10:36
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-13
100.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Lamar 23 TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Lamar 38Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 19
OPP 38
-10
100.0%
Garrett, Colt pass complete to Henry, Ta'Zhawn for no gain to the LU38, PENALTY TTU illegal block (Martin, Xavier) 10 yards to the LU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 25
OPP 44
+44
100.0%
Colt Garrett pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 44 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 30PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:47
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Tyler Slaydon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dalton Rigdon at the TexTc 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 31PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:57
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Rodney Randle Jr. at the Lamar 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 32INT8 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TTUDrive 33END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:07
SaRodorick Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q2 4:48
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 10:22
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 11 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-0.1