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TLSA

Tulsa 21 at Texas 28

TEX
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Ryan Bujcevski punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+14.7Home team on offense+20.6Score differential+9.6Garbage-time factor+10.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Time remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:12: Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:38: Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK) — TLSA win probability +11.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:25: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tre Watson for 11 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +5.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:53: Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK) — TLSA win probability +11.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:53: John Parker Romo kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TEX win probability +4.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 14:18TLSA 4th & 2 at TEX 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:53TLSA 4th & 8 at TEX 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:53TEX 4th & 2 at TLSA 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:31TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TEX 4th & 14 at TLSA 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:46TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:51TEX 4th & 7 at TLSA 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:34TLSA 4th & 6 at TEX 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:17TLSA 4th & 6 at TEX 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:41TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:32TLSA 4th & 7 at TEX 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:32TLSA 4th & 5 at TEX 5, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:53TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:39TLSA 4th & 6 at TEX 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 14:18TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:58TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:28TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:12TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:38TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:25TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:53TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
93.4%
Luke Skipper pass intercepted Caden Sterns return for no gain to the Tulsa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:2793% → 93%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
93.4%
TULSA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+5
93.4%
TULSA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete, broken up by Akayleb EvansSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+36
93.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 36 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 4:257% → 7%
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
93.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
93.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 3 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
93.3%
Keylon Stokes run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+13
93.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 13 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
93.3%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
93.3%
Keenen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+11
93.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 11 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 14:18
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+7
93.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
93.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 1 yd to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+1
93.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
93.3%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by Josh ThompsonSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
92.6%
Nathan Walker 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 72 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
92.7%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+35
92.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 35 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
92.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+14
92.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
92.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Andrew Beck for 12 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
92.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 6 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.9%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
92.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
92.0%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+1
92.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+4
92.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
92.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:2492% → 93%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
92.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 4
50
+8
92.0%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
92.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
93.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 29 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:287% → 7%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
92.7%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
93.0%
Luke Skipper pass intercepted B.J. Foster return for no gain to the Texas 27 TULSA Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 1:2393% → 93%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
93.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 25Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+18
93.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (McKinley Whitfield) to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
93.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
93.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete, broken up by Diamon CannonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+15
93.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 15 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
93.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-1
93.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 38
-5
93.3%
TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
93.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
93.1%
SKIPPER, L. slant pass incomplete to STOKES, K., PENALTY UT roughing passer (Breckyn Hager) 15 yards to the TLS20, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
92.9%
BROOKS, S. rush over right end for no gain to the TLS20 (Charle Omenihu), PENALTY TLS OHO (NEPH, C.) 10 yards to the TLS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
92.9%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+6
93.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-1
93.0%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
93.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
93.6%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
93.6%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
93.5%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
93.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
93.7%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
93.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin Duvernay, broken up by Akayleb EvansSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-5
93.4%
TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (Ryan Bujcevski) to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
93.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Deven Lamp blocked by Deven LampSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:418% → 8%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
92.4%
Keenen Johnson pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
92.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+15
92.0%
Luke Skipper run for 15 yds to the Texas 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
92.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
92.0%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
92.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Shamari Brooks for no gain to the Texas 12Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
92.4%
Nathan Walker 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0693% → 97%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
93.0%
Tre Watson run for 16 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.1%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
93.3%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
93.1%
Tre Watson rush over left guard for 1 yard to the UT46 (CANNON, D.), PENALTY TLS IS 5 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
50
+10
93.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
97.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 40 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 2:114% → 4%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
96.5%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
96.4%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 14 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
96.3%
Keylon Stokes run for 26 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
95.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
95.9%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Corey Taylor IISimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
96.2%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Jarion AndersonSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+5
96.4%
WALKER, N. field goal attempt from 36 MISSED - wide right,, clock 01:21, PENALTY UT RIK (Kris Boyd) 5 yards to the UT14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-5
96.1%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
96.3%
John Parker Romo 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 20Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the Texas 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
97.3%
Sam Ehlinger screen pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 7 yards to the UT32 (WILLIAMS, C.), PENALTY UT OHO (Calvin Anderson) 10 yards to the UT15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
97.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 8 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
97.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
97.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
96.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+5
97.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
97.0%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 4
OWN 23
-6
97.0%
Thomas Bennett punt for 46 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.6%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 32 Sam Ehlinger fumbled, forced by Trevis Gipson, recovered by Tulsa Cooper EdmistonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
96.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+1
96.7%
Luke Skipper run for 1 yd to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
97.1%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+10
97.1%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 10 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
96.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+4
96.7%
Luke Skipper run for 4 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
96.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Texas 6Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
96.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Texas 5Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.0%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Jarion AndersonSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
97.0%
Luke Skipper run for 1 yd to the Texas 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
97.8%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 7
-1
97.8%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Texas 11 TEXAS Penalty, OHO (Cade Brewer) to the Texas 6Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
97.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 6Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+3
97.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 3 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 5
OWN 9
0
97.7%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 3:272% → 9%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
97.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the Texas 27 Corey Taylor II fumbled, forced by P.J. Locke III, recovered by Tulsa Corey Taylor IISimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+1
97.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 3
OPP 0
0
97.8%
BROOKS, S. rush up middle for 2 yards to the UT24 (Charle Omenihu), PENALTY UT IS off-setting, PENALTY TLS illegal formation off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-3
97.8%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+21
97.9%
Luke Skipper run for 21 yds to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
97.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:0695% → 95%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
95.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 5 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+11
95.4%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey run for 11 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
95.5%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+3
95.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
95.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
95.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:327% → 18%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
93.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
93.2%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by Jeffrey McCullochSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+7
93.3%
Luke Skipper run for 7 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+48
93.1%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 48 yds to the Texas 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1390% → 97%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
89.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
90.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 3 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
90.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
90.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
90.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+13
91.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-3
91.2%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 22 TEXAS Penalty, OHO (Lil'Jordan Humphrey) to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+6
91.0%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+14
90.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
91.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
97.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tre Watson for 11 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:325% → 18%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.1%
Luke Skipper run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
94.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+16
94.6%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 16 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
94.3%
Keylon Stokes run for 16 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
82.4%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25END OF GAME
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:2091% → 97%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
91.6%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
91.9%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
91.8%
Tre Watson run for 8 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
95.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
95.2%
Daniel Young run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+30
95.4%
Daniel Young run for 30 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
95.6%
Daniel Young run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-4
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 12
OPP 15
-4
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:53
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q4 12:38
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q3 1:12
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com