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ND

Notre Dame 44 at Navy 22

NAVY
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:04 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:07: Dexter Williams 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +4.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:56: Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +5.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:03: Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +6.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:04: Miles Boykin 4 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:42: Mike Martin 33 Yd Run (Zach Abey Pass to OJ Davis for Two-Point Conversion) — NAVY win probability +8.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:46NAVY 4th & 2 at ND 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:22NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 45, down 6
    Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:53NAVY 4th & 16 at midfield, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:47ND 4th & 8 at ND 13, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:34NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 49, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:40ND 4th & 2 at NAVY 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%−1.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:16ND 4th & 3 at NAVY 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−3.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:11NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:26ND 4th & 1 at NAVY 49, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:41ND 4th & 13 at NAVY 13, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:52NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 24, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:26ND 4th & 1 at ND 35, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:47NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 42, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:58NAVY 4th & 6 at ND 45, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:09ND 4th & 8 at ND 25, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:38ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:51ND Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:07ND Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:04ND Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:56NAVY Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:03NAVY Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:04ND Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:42NAVY Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:29ND Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
6.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 13 yds Miles Boykin fumbled, forced by Sean Williams, recovered by Navy Michael McMorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:547% → 7%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
6.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+1
6.8%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+3
7.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+1
7.3%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:0293% → 92%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
7.3%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+11
7.4%
Dexter Williams run for 11 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+33
7.5%
Dexter Williams run for 33 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
7.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 11 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
7.7%
Jafar Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+8
7.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 8 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
8.0%
Jafar Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.9%
Jafar Armstrong 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:078% → 9%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
8.1%
Garret Lewis run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
8.3%
Tazh Maloy run for 10 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
8.6%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
8.9%
Garret Lewis run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
9.1%
Tazh Maloy run for no gain to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
9.2%
Owen White punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2191% → 92%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
9.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 18 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
9.1%
Ian Book run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
50
+38
9.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 38 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
7.9%
Dexter Williams 12 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:509% → 9%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
8.5%
Garret Lewis run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
8.7%
Tre Walker run for 6 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+23
8.5%
Tazh Maloy run for 23 yds to the NDame 44 Tazh Maloy fumbled, forced by Jalen Elliott, recovered by Navy Mychal Cooper for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
8.8%
Garret Lewis sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 48Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 14
OPP 48
-5
8.8%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Laurent Njiki) to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 19
OWN 47
+3
8.8%
Mike Martin run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 16
50
0
8.8%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Zach Abey, broken up by Troy Pride Jr.Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 16
50
0
8.8%
Owen White punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0092% → 91%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
8.5%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NDame 12Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+1
8.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NDame 13Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
8.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Alize MackSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
9.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 34 yds, downed at the NDame 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0910% → 9%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
9.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-4
9.7%
Garret Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+2
9.5%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 2 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 9
OPP 46
-5
9.5%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
9.3%
Owen White punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:1891% → 95%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
9.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 2 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+12
9.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 12 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
9.0%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 45 Dexter Williams fumbled, recovered by NDame Dexter WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+2
9.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 2 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+8
9.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 8 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+14
9.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 14 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
9.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Jafar ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
9.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+4
9.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Dexter Williams for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+7
9.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 7 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
9.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 5 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
9.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 3 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
5.4%
Dexter Williams 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:507% → 7%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.8%
Mike Martin run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
6.8%
Garret Lewis run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
6.7%
Mike Martin run for 3 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
6.6%
Owen White punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:0195% → 96%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+25
5.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 25 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
5.3%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+7
5.3%
Dexter Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
5.3%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
5.5%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
5.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 24 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
5.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Dexter Williams for 16 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
4.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 2 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
4.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles Boykin, broken up by Jarid RyanSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
4.5%
Book, Ian pass complete to Finke, Chris for 4 yards to the NAVY1, PENALTY NAVY holding (Farrar, Micah) 3 yards to the NAVY2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.6%
Dexter Williams 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:483% → 3%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.3%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Taylor JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
3.2%
Mike Martin run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
2.9%
Mike Martin run for 4 yds to the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:543% → 8%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
2.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 58 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
3.0%
Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+13
2.7%
Tre Walker run for 13 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.2%
Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:0995% → 97%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
5.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 9 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
4.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tony Jones Jr., broken up by Jarid RyanSimilar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+19
4.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 19 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
4.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-2
3.9%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+21
3.9%
Ian Book run for 21 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
3.6%
Dexter Williams run for 17 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
3.5%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
3.5%
Book, Ian pass complete to Finke, Chris for 3 yards to the NAVY2, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 15 yards to the NAVY20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+7
3.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Dexter Williams for 7 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
3.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole KmetSimilar
Q3 8:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
2.7%
Jonathan Doerer 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:313% → 10%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
3.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 12 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
3.2%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 34 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
3.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+22
3.4%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 22 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.5%
Garret Lewis run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.6%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.9%
Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5293% → 99%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.9%
Dexter Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
6.7%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
7.0%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to Boykin, Miles, PENALTY NAVY pass interference (Heflin, Taylor) 3 yards to the NOTREDAME31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
6.8%
Ian Book run for 12 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
6.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 3 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+18
6.1%
Jafar Armstrong run for 18 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
6.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 26 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
5.7%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
4.8%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.2%
Miles Boykin 4 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:052% → 2%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.3%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
2.2%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Malcolm Perry, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
2.2%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
2.1%
Owen White punt for 46 yds, downed at the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
1.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 18 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.2%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
1.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+24
1.1%
Ian Book pass intercepted Jacob Springer return for 24 yds to the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:332% → 11%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
2.0%
Garret Lewis run for 6 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+33
10.8%
Mike Martin 33 Yd Run (Zach Abey Pass to OJ Davis for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0395% → 99%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
4.7%
Dexter Williams run for 12 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
4.3%
Dexter Williams run for 11 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
3.9%
Dexter Williams run for 9 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-10
3.6%
Armstrong, Jafar rush for 9 yards to the NAVY34, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Banks, Aaron) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+1
3.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 1 yd to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+27
3.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 27 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
3.4%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
3.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
0.8%
Miles Boykin 22 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:012% → 1%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.5%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+22
1.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalen Elliott) to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
1.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 17 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
1.4%
CJ Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
1.2%
Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+1
1.2%
Mike Martin run for 1 yd to the NDame 26 Mike Martin fumbled, recovered by NDame Jamir JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5199% → 100%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
0.7%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
0.6%
Dexter Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
0.6%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
0.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23INT
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:391% → 1%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
0.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+10
0.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 10 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
0.7%
Mike Martin run for 5 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+6
0.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.7%
Garret Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.7%
Mike Martin run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+2
0.7%
Mike Martin run for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+9
0.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
0.7%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
0.7%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to CJ WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
0.7%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Ryan MitchellSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+12
0.6%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 12 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
0.7%
Garret Lewis pass intercepted Jalen Elliott return for 21 yds to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
0.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
0.3%
TEAM run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:42
Mike Martin 33 Yd Run (Zach Abey Pass to OJ Davis for Two-Point Conversion)
+8.8
TD · Q3 5:03
Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)
+6.3
TD · Q3 12:56
Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com