2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:18 · Eric Dungey run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:40: Eric Dungey 2 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick) — SYR win probability +7.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:54: Jeff Smith 69 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick) — BC win probability +10.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:30: Eric Dungey 18 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick) — SYR win probability +10.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:26: Ben Glines 29 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick) — BC win probability +14.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:52: Jamal Custis 22 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick) — SYR win probability +16.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SYR made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 12:26BC 4th & 3 at SYR 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.6%52% to convertField goal64.5%−0.162% to makePunt64.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:47BC 4th & 10 at SYR 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snapGo for it64.3%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call64.4%81% to makePunt63.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:30SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt35.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:28SYR 4th & 9 at BC 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snapGo for it36.3%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call36.4%64% to makePunt35.4%−1.0average punt
- Q2 14:42BC 4th & 9 at BC 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snapGo for it55.9%−1.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.0%average punt
- Q2 10:46BC 4th & 10 at BC 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snapGo for it45.3%−1.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.5%average punt
- Q2 8:21SYR 4th & 16 at SYR 44, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snapGo for it54.5%−3.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.6%average punt
- Q2 7:10BC 4th & 7 at BC 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snapGo for it42.1%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.5%average punt
- Q2 3:44SYR 4th & 23 at BC 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snapGo for it58.6%−2.87% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.3%average punt
- Q2 0:16BC 4th & 8 at BC 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it32.7%−1.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%average punt
- Q3 9:41SYR 4th & 25 at SYR 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snapGo for it53.7%−5.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.0%average punt
- Q3 2:12BC 4th & 7 at SYR 16, down 14Close callWent for it · 21.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.3%−0.635% to convertField goal20.9%81% to makePunt15.0%−5.9average punt
- Q4 14:47SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 31, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snapGo for it84.2%−1.839% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.0%average punt
- Q4 13:33BC 4th & 5 at BC 40, down 14Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snapGo for it16.9%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:18SYR 4th & 8 at BC 36, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%34% to convertField goal99.1%−<0.142% to makePunt99.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 3:14BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.1%97% to makeGo for two67.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:03SYR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.8%97% to makeGo for two35.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:46SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.2%97% to makeGo for two41.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:40SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.4%97% to makeGo for two49.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:54BC Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.0%97% to makeGo for two45.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:30SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.3%97% to makeGo for two61.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:26BC Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.7%97% to makeGo for two41.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:52SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.4%97% to makeGo for two74.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:07SYR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two97.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCDrive 1MISSED FG11 plays · 28 yds · 3:5864% → 64%
SYRDrive 2MISSED FG9 plays · 54 yds · 3:1236% → 37%
Q1 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+34
64.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 34 yds to the BOSTCOLL 37 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
63.4%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 10 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD11 plays · 74 yds · 4:0564% → 68%
Q1 6:34
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+17
64.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 17 yds to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+10
64.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ben Glines for 10 yds to the Syrac 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.4%
Jake Burt 3 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5TD7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0138% → 44%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+34
61.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 34 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4858% → 56%
SYRDrive 7TD8 plays · 67 yds · 1:5844% → 53%
BCDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4849% → 46%
SYRDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 8 yds · 2:1955% → 57%
BCDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:0343% → 42%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
43.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 16 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11PUNT12 plays · 36 yds · 3:1658% → 61%
Q2 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+11
41.3%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 11 yds to the Syrac 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
39.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 16 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
38.3%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 22 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 8
OPP 34
-15
38.9%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eric Dungey) to the BC 49Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 23
OPP 49
0
38.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12TD3 plays · 82 yds · 0:4439% → 50%
SYRDrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1552% → 67%
Q2 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+35
47.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Taj Harris for 35 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
44.7%
Dungey, Eric pass incomplete to Custis, Jamal, PENALTY BOSTCOLL holding (Torres, Taj-Amir) 10 yards to the BOSTCOLL27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
43.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 9 yds to the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 0:5936% → 35%
Q2 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+15
35.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff Smith for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (Trill Williams) to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
36.2%
Anthony Brown sacked by Tyrell Richards for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 21Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 18
OWN 21
-4
33.8%
Anthony Brown sacked by Kingsley Jonathan for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16INT5 plays · 10 yds · 1:0267% → 68%
BCDrive 17TD2 plays · 31 yds · 0:0836% → 51%
SYRDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 17 yds · 3:3957% → 57%
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 7 yds to the Syrac 32Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-18
39.3%
Eric Dungey sacked by Taj-Amir Torres for a loss of 18 yards to the Syrac 42Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 25
OWN 42
0
42.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2543% → 43%
SYRDrive 20TD11 plays · 76 yds · 4:0959% → 83%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
37.4%
Eric Dungey sacked by Tanner Karafa for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 33Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+17
39.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Moe Neal for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
50
+12
34.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 12 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 49 yds · 2:3322% → 21%
SYRDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1583% → 85%
Q4 14:47
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+21
15.5%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 55 yds , Michael Walker returns for 21 yds to the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0918% → 17%
SYRDrive 24TD11 plays · 66 yds · 4:1888% → 98%
Q4 12:16
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+5
11.3%
Dungey, Eric pass incomplete to Johnson, Nykeim, PENALTY BOSTCOLL offside (Smith, Ray) 5 yards to the SYRACUSE48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+17
8.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 17 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25FUMBLE10 plays · 16 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q4 8:23
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+15
2.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 10
50
+10
2.7%
Brown, Anthony pass incomplete to Smith, Jeff, PENALTY SYRACUSE holding (Cisco, Andre) 10 yards to the SYRACUSE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTCOLL.Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-5
2.8%
Anthony Brown sacked by Alton Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 47 Anthony Brown fumbled, forced by Alton Robinson, recovered by Syrac Tyrell Richards , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 26DOWNS17 plays · 9 yds · 3:4399% → 100%
Q4 5:57
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+5
0.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ray Smith) to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+15
0.6%
Dungey, Eric pass pass intended for Johnson, Nykeim intercepted by Cheevers, Hamp at the BOSTCOLL6, Cheevers, Hamp return 0 yards to the BOSTCOLL6, PENALTY BOSTCOLL offside (Smith, Ray) declined, NO PLAY, PENALTY BOSTCOLL roughing passer (Smith, Ray) 15 yards to the BOSTCOLL23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
0.5%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dontae Strickland) to the BC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27INT6 plays · 44 yds · 1:251% → 0%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
0.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 13 yds to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+21
0.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 21 yds to the Syrac 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
0.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 10 yds to the Syrac 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.4%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted Andre Cisco return for no gain to the Syrac 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 28Uncategorized1 play · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:52
Jamal Custis 22 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick)
-16
TD · Q3 13:26
Ben Glines 29 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)
+14.6
TD · Q2 2:54
Jeff Smith 69 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)
+10.2