Try the model
UVA

Virginia 31 at Virginia Tech 34

VT
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2018 · Lane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:43 · Lester Coleman punt for 43 yds , Damon Hazelton returns for no gain to the VTech 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 19Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior−7.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:57: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 75 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +17.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:55: Jordan Ellis run for 12 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +21.3 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 6:51: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 29 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +36.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:51: Steven Peoples run for 18 yds Steven Peoples fumbled, recovered by VTech Hezekiah Grimsley for a TD VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the Virg 3 for a 1ST down (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +44.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Brian Johnson 42 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +16.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 10UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:20VT 4th & 1 at UVA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:13VT 4th & 3 at UVA 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:43UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:46VT 4th & 1 at UVA 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−0.5
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:44UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:40VT 4th & 4 at VT 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:00VT 4th & 9 at UVA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:47UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:40UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:14UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:05VT 4th & 1 at VT 27, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:10VT 4th & 6 at UVA 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:15VT 4th & 4 at VT 42, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:11VT 4th & 14 at VT 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:58UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−4.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:41UVA 4th & 9 at VT 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−14.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:43UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−10.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:02VT 4th & 2 at VT 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−1.9
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 2:44VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:30UVA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:57UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:55VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:55UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:51UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 4:4242% → 44%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.9%
Steven Peoples run for 9 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
42.1%
Steven Peoples run for 5 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
42.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+14
42.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 14 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
42.6%
Steven Peoples run for 8 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
42.8%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
43.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 6 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
43.3%
TEAM run for no gain to the Virg 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by VTechSimilar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
43.2%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
43.7%
Steven Peoples run for 7 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
44.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Hezekiah Grimsley, broken up by Brenton NelsonSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
43.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven PeoplesSimilar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
43.6%
Jordan Stout 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2657% → 56%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
43.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-13
43.4%
Perkins, Bryce rush for 8 yards to the VIRGINIA34, PENALTY VIRGINIA illegal block (Fieler, Jake) 13 yards to the VIRGINIA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 23
OWN 13
+3
43.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 20
OWN 16
0
43.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares KellySimilar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 20
OWN 16
0
44.0%
Lester Coleman punt for 43 yds , Damon Hazelton returns for no gain to the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5144% → 45%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
44.1%
Willis, Ryan pass incomplete to Peoples, Steven, PENALTY VIRGINIA roughing passer (Mack, Jordan) 15 yards to the VIRGINIA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
44.5%
Steven Peoples run for 3 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
44.7%
Ryan Willis run for no gain to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
44.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 6 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
44.7%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0256% → 55%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
44.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
44.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+8
44.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 8 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
44.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Caleb FarleySimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
45.0%
Lester Coleman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Damon Hazelton at the VTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5845% → 45%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
44.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
44.5%
Deshawn McClease run for 9 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
45.2%
Ryan Willis run for 5 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
45.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 6 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
46.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Phil PattersonSimilar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
45.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
45.3%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chuck Davis at the Virg 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6FUMBLE
17 plays · 71 yds · 7:2655% → 57%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
44.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+4
44.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
44.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
44.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares KellySimilar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
44.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
44.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
44.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 9 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
44.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
43.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
43.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+2
43.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
43.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
44.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 12 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
43.4%
Perkins, Bryce pass incomplete to Zaccheaus, Olamide, PENALTY VATECH offside (Adams, Eli) 5 yards to the VATECH22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 5
OPP 22
-1
43.4%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Robert Porcher IV for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 23Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+9
43.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
43.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the VTech 12 Bryce Perkins fumbled, recovered by VTech Dax HollifieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:5547% → 48%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+43
47.4%
Tre Turner run for 43 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
49.9%
Steven Peoples run for 4 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-3
50.3%
Steven Peoples run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
49.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
47.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Chuck Davis at the Virg 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:0853% → 52%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
46.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 7 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
45.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+3
46.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
45.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-3
45.8%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
47.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 11
OWN 18
-5
47.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 16
OWN 13
+49
48.0%
Lester Coleman punt for 39 yds, downed at the VATECH 48 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the VTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:5150% → 63%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
50.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 15 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
52.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 7 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+11
52.3%
Deshawn McClease run for 11 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
53.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 12 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
53.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+6
53.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 6 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
62.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 7 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT TD
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:5539% → 27%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-14
61.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ryan Nelson) to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+10
62.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 10 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
72.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Tre Turner, recovered by Jovonn Quillen for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
73.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:2428% → 28%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
71.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
72.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+4
71.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
71.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0576% → 77%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
75.8%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
75.8%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
74.7%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
76.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds , Chuck Davis returns for no gain to the Virg 31 Chuck Davis fumbled, recovered by VTechSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+62
80.1%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Tim Harris return for 62 yds to the VTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2026% → 41%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
74.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
74.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
74.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+18
74.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 18 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
74.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+10
74.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 10 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
58.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 29 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:1566% → 77%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.8%
Steven Peoples run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.8%
Steven Peoples run for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Chris CunninghamSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
68.6%
Steven Peoples run for 5 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+13
69.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 13 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
73.3%
Hezekiah Grimsley run for 17 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
74.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
74.0%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-2
73.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jalen Holston for 8 yds to the Virg 20 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (Kyle Chung) to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+12
73.6%
Ryan Willis run for 12 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
75.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Jalen Holston, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
75.5%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+3
74.3%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
77.1%
Brian Johnson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
58.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 75 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5560% → 83%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.9%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+45
60.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 45 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
65.5%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+5
65.8%
Ryan Willis run for 5 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+20
64.4%
Ryan Willis run for 20 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
66.4%
Steven Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 4Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
66.7%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the Virg 2Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2018% → 44%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
81.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 29 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
78.2%
Perkins, Bryce pass incomplete to Dubois, Hasise, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Watts, Bryce) 15 yards to the VATECH31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA.Similar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-9
77.2%
Tavares Kelly run for 1 yd to the VTech 30 VIRGINIA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 19
OPP 40
+10
79.5%
Perkins, Bryce pass incomplete to Zaccheaus, Olamide, PENALTY VATECH holding (Watts, Bryce) 10 yards to the VATECH30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA.Similar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
77.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 18 yds to the VTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
55.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 12 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2567% → 68%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
66.9%
Deshawn McClease run for 9 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
67.7%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
66.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Deshawn McClease for 5 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+8
67.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 51 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 8 yds to the Virg 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 3:0935% → 79%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
64.9%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+36
65.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 36 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
50
+8
58.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+11
58.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 11 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
57.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+29
21.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 29 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1534% → 30%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
34.4%
Ryan Willis sacked by Jordan Mack for a loss of 9 yards to the VTech 16Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+5
33.4%
Steven Peoples run for 5 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
31.5%
Ryan Willis run for no gain to the VTech 21 Ryan Willis fumbled, recovered by VTechSimilar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
29.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 47 yds , Chuck Davis returns for no gain to the Virg 32 Chuck Davis fumbled, recovered by VirgSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0276% → 77%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
23.9%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+1
22.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+1
22.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
22.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 52 yds, downed at the VTech 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1128% → 26%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
27.8%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
27.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Peoples, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
25.8%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Charles Snowden return for no gain to the VTech 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5785% → 91%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
14.8%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 12Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+2
13.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the VTech 10Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
12.5%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
9.3%
Brian Delaney 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:4615% → 63%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.2%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
14.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+45
12.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 45 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
18.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 11 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
63.0%
Steven Peoples run for 18 yds Steven Peoples fumbled, recovered by VTech Hezekiah Grimsley for a TD VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the Virg 3 for a 1ST down (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:0754% → 50%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
42.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
43.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Dax HollifieldSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
45.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
47.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Jovonn QuillenSimilar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
49.7%
Lester Coleman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Damon Hazelton at the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:3853% → 57%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
53.2%
Steven Peoples run for 13 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+1
58.8%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
56.6%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 51 yds, downed at the Virg 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
49.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
64.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre Turner, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
61.8%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
78.6%
Brian Johnson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 30Uncategorized
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
70.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:51
Steven Peoples run for 18 yds Steven Peoples fumbled, recovered by VTech Hezekiah Grimsley for a TD VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the Virg 3 for a 1ST down (Brian Johnson KICK)
+44.7
TD · Q4 6:51
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 29 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
-36.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+29.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com