2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Yankee Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:30 · Justin Yoon 29 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:15: Dexter Williams 9 Yd pass from Ian Book (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +1.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- FG · Q1 7:44: Justin Yoon 26 Yd Field Goal — SYR win probability +0.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- FG · Q1 1:09: Justin Yoon 29 Yd Field Goal — ND win probability +3.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:52: Jafar Armstrong 9 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +8.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:35: Chase Claypool 10 Yd pass from Ian Book (Justin Yoon PAT failed) — ND win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SYR made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:04ND 4th & 7 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snapGo for it75.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.0%average punt
- Q1 11:26SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it24.9%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.0%average punt
- Q1 7:44ND 4th & 4 at SYR 9, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snapGo for it76.2%43% to convertField goalTheir call76.2%−<0.189% to makePunt75.2%−1.1average punt
- Q1 5:05SYR 4th & 6 at ND 42, down 10Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snapGo for it24.2%40% to convertField goal23.9%−0.330% to makePuntTheir call24.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:09ND 4th & 12 at SYR 12, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snapGo for it75.6%−0.919% to convertField goalTheir call76.5%86% to makePunt73.0%−3.6average punt
- Q2 13:04ND 4th & 3 at ND 33, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it82.2%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.3%average punt
- Q2 11:11SYR 4th & 15 at ND 49, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it18.2%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.0%average punt
- Q2 6:52ND 4th & 1 at SYR 1, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.7%59% to convertField goal80.5%−2.294% to makePunt75.1%−7.6average punt
- Q2 3:33SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 45, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q2 1:40ND 4th & 10 at ND 23, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it92.5%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%average punt
- Q2 0:35SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 46, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q3 12:48SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 32, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it6.2%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q3 9:30ND 4th & 8 at SYR 12, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%86% to makePunt92.8%−2.6average punt
- Q3 7:27SYR 4th & 23 at SYR 8, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it2.8%−1.06% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q3 5:11ND 4th & 1 at SYR 29, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%71% to convertField goal96.4%−0.758% to makePunt95.0%−2.0average punt
- Q3 1:32SYR 4th & 11 at SYR 31, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 14:50ND 4th & 8 at ND 42, up 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 8:20SYR 4th & 4 at ND 5, down 29Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%92% to makePunt-0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:10SYR 4th & 10 at ND 10, down 36Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.124% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%88% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 9:15ND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.7%97% to makeGo for two75.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:52ND Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:35ND Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:05ND Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNDDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4879% → 78%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
79.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 2 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+6
78.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 7
50
0
78.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles Boykin, broken up by Christopher FredrickSimilar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 7
50
0
78.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Nykeim Johnson at the Syrac 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3122% → 22%
Q1 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
78.3%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Taj Harris, broken up by Khalid KareemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD7 plays · 55 yds · 2:0178% → 80%
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
78.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Robert Hainsey) to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
78.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles Boykin, broken up by Christopher FredrickSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+18
77.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 18 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
78.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 27 yds to the Syrac 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
78.9%
Eric Dungey pass intercepted Jalen Elliott return for 24 yds to the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1180% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 2:3121% → 21%
Q1 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+10
78.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 10 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7FG10 plays · 83 yds · 3:4980% → 83%
Q1 3:41
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+5
79.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 5 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+33
79.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
50
+47
80.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 47 yds to the Syrac 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
80.0%
Jones Jr., Tony rush for 2 yards to the SYRACUSE0, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Wright, Brock) 10 yards to the SYRACUSE12, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8INT6 plays · 22 yds · 1:0818% → 19%
Q2 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
81.3%
Tommy DeVito pass intercepted Alohi Gilman return for no gain to the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3684% → 84%
SYRDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4818% → 17%
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
82.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 4 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-9
82.1%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Kurt Hinish for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 15
OPP 49
+23
83.2%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 11 SYRACUSE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Tyrell Richards) to the NDame 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11INT13 plays · 73 yds · 4:0985% → 86%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
84.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 9 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+9
85.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 9 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
85.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 24 yds to the Syrac 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
85.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Liam Eichenberg) to the Syrac 37Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+18
83.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 18 yds to the Syrac 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.6%
Ian Book pass intercepted, touchback. Andre Cisco return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12INT6 plays · 33 yds · 1:4315% → 15%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
84.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 17 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
83.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Dontae Strickland for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+54
84.6%
Tommy DeVito pass intercepted Alohi Gilman return for 54 yds to the Syrac 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD1 play · 9 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 1:048% → 7%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.1%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Nykeim Johnson, broken up by Khalid KareemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4594% → 94%
SYRDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:557% → 4%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
93.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 5
50
-4
93.3%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Drue Tranquill for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 46Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
96.1%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:536% → 6%
Q3 12:48
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+16
94.4%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 37 yds , Chris Finke returns for 16 yds to the NDame 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19FG8 plays · 41 yds · 3:0896% → 96%
Q3 12:14
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+16
96.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 1 yd to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Trill Williams) to the Syrac 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+4
96.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 4 yds to the Syrac 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -13 yds · 1:454% → 3%
Q3 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-5
96.4%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Drue Tranquill for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 15Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 16
OWN 15
-7
96.6%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 8Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 23
OWN 8
0
96.8%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD10 plays · 51 yds · 3:4497% → 100%
Q3 6:35
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+15
96.9%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to Boykin, Miles, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Fredrick, Christopher) 15 yards to the SYRACUSE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+17
97.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 17 yds to the Syrac 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
99.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 31Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+1
99.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 1 yd to the Syrac 31Similar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+6
99.8%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 35 yds , Chris Finke returns for 6 yds to the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
SYRDrive 24MISSED FG19 plays · 68 yds · 6:190% → 0%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for no gain to the Syrac 27Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+13
99.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 13 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
99.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Moe Neal for 10 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-5
99.8%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Te'von Coney and Daelin Hayes for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 14
OPP 38
+15
99.9%
DeVito, Tommy pass incomplete to Harris, Taj (Love, Julian), PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Kareem, Khalid) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 4 yds to the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
99.9%
Williams, Dexter rush for loss of 2 yards to the SYRACUSE24, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Kraemer, Tommy) 10 yards to the SYRACUSE32, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 26FG13 plays · 59 yds · 3:350% → 0%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
99.9%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Daelin Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 25Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+34
100.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 34 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 8 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+6
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 6 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 5 yds to the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27Uncategorized2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:52
Jafar Armstrong 9 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
+8.8
FG · Q1 1:09
Justin Yoon 29 Yd Field Goal
+3.1
TD · Q3 3:35
Chase Claypool 10 Yd pass from Ian Book (Justin Yoon PAT failed)
+2