Try the model
WCU

Western Carolina 26 at North Carolina 49

UNC
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadWCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreWCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:52 · Freeman Jones 47 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior+31.1Home team on offense+20.1Score differential+11.9Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:59: Jordon Brown run for 22 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:11: Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 54 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +1.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:00: Manny Miles pass complete to Jake Bargas for 38 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:23: Will Horton 26 yd FG GOOD — WCU win probability +1.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:51: Javonte Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00WCU 4th & 19 at WCU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:25UNC 4th & 8 at WCU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:25WCU 4th & 7 at WCU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:23WCU 4th & 18 at UNC 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:35WCU 4th & 8 at UNC 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:20WCU 4th & 13 at UNC 16, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:40WCU 4th & 1 at UNC 43, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:52UNC 4th & 11 at WCU 30, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:23WCU 4th & 9 at UNC 9, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:51UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 42, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:14WCU 4th & 10 at WCU 45, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:23UNC 4th & 3 at WCU 17, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:34WCU 4th & 13 at UNC 24, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:24UNC 4th & 2 at WCU 36, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:05WCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:33UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:58UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:59UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:11UNC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:00UNC Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:51UNC Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:06UNC Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:06WCU Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WCUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Tyrie Adams run for a loss of 6 yards to the WCaro 19 Tyrie Adams fumbled, recovered by WCaro Tyrie Adams , return for no gain to the WCaro 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-5
97.8%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WCaro 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
97.8%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+2
97.8%
Tyrie Adams run for 2 yds to the WCaro 16Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+41
97.8%
Ian Berryman punt for 36 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 41 yds to the WCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
97.6%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the WCaro 7Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-2
97.6%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 9Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+70
97.6%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted Michael Murphy return for 70 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 1:103% → 3%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
97.4%
Tyrie Adams run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+24
97.4%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to D.J. Thorpe for 24 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
Tyrie Adams run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Horton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2597% → 97%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
97.1%
Michael Carter run for 29 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
97.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 11 yds to the WCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
97.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 10 yds to the WCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
97.1%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for 11 yds to the WCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
97.1%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the WCaro 17Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
96.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 17 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.8%
Tyrie Adams run for a loss of 5 yards to the WCaro 20 Tyrie Adams fumbled, forced by Tyler Powell, recovered by NCaro Tomon FoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:3197% → 97%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
96.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 7 yds to the WCaro 13Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+10
96.9%
Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the WCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.9%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the WCaro 1Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:3297% → 96%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
97.0%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the WCaro 45Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
97.0%
Nathan Elliott run for 1 yd to the WCaro 44Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+15
97.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 15 yds to the WCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
97.0%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the WCaro 24Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
97.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jake Bargas for 3 yds to the WCaro 21Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+5
97.0%
Nathan Elliott run for 5 yds to the WCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
97.0%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for 3 yds to the WCaro 13Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
97.0%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the WCaro 10Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-4
97.0%
Dazz Newsome run for a loss of 4 yards to the WCaro 14Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+33
96.3%
Freeman Jones 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
96.2%
Tyrie Adams run for 5 yds to the WCaro 25Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
96.2%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Daquan Patten for 10 yds to the WCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
96.2%
Tyrie Adams sacked by Xach Gill for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 33Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
96.2%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Kenny BentonSimilar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+5
96.3%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Connell Young for 5 yds to the WCaro 38Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+14
96.3%
Ian Berryman punt for 49 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 14 yds to the UNC 48 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:0196% → 97%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+47
95.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 47 yds to the WCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
96.1%
Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the WCaro 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+6
96.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 6 yds to the WCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
97.0%
Jordon Brown run for 22 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 10FG
13 plays · 39 yds · 3:363% → 4%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
96.6%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Donnavan Spencer for 6 yds to the WCaro 41Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
96.5%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to D.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
96.5%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Kenny Benton for 6 yds to the WCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.5%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
96.5%
Tyrie Adams sacked by Jason Strowbridge for a loss of 5 yards to the WCaro 42Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+15
96.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jason Strowbridge) to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
96.5%
Tyrie Adams run for 25 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
96.3%
Tyrie Adams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
96.4%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 13
OPP 21
-5
96.5%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, false start (D.J. Thorpe) to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 18
OPP 26
0
96.6%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Donnavan SpencerSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+43
95.8%
Will Horton 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
95.9%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+7
95.9%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
95.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+12
95.9%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted John Brannon III return for 12 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 12FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:215% → 5%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
95.0%
Tyrie Adams rush up middle for 3 yards to the NC27 (Powell, T), PENALTY WCU holding (Zach Weeks) 10 yards to the NC40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 20
OPP 40
0
95.2%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Connell YoungSimilar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 20
OPP 40
0
95.3%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+12
95.4%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Connell Young for 12 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
94.9%
Will Horton 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2495% → 97%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.9%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
95.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
94.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 6 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
95.1%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+54
96.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 54 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 14FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 4:514% → 4%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.0%
Nate Mullen run for 15 yds to the WCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.9%
Donnavan Spencer run for 2 yds to the WCaro 42Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
95.9%
Nate Mullen pass complete to Tyrie Adams for 10 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
95.8%
Donnavan Spencer run for 7 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-1
95.7%
Donnavan Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+10
96.0%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Connell Young for 10 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
95.8%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Daquan Patten for 4 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-1
95.8%
Tyrie Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+16
95.9%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Nate Mullen for 16 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
95.7%
Tyrie Adams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11 WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, illegal forward pass (Tyrie Adams) to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
95.8%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete, broken up by Greg RossSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 13
OPP 16
0
96.1%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+33
95.7%
Will Horton 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
96.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 13 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
96.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 17 yds Rontavius Groves fumbled, forced by Jarquavius Wortham, recovered by WCaro John Brannon IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
95.6%
Tyrie Adams middle pass incomplete to Nate Mullen, PENALTY NC holding (Ross, G) 10 yards to the WCU48, 1ST DOWN WCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
95.4%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
95.5%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Jordan Mathis for 9 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
95.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-14
95.2%
Tyrie Adams sacked by Trey Morrison for a loss of 14 yards to the WCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:1296% → 98%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
96.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the WCaro 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+38
98.3%
Manny Miles pass complete to Jake Bargas for 38 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:0098% → 98%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
98.1%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+30
98.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 30 yds to the WCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
98.1%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the WCaro 27Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-10
98.1%
Elliott, N screen pass complete to Brown, J for 3 yards to the WCU24, out-of-bounds (Haki Bradley;Ty Harris), PENALTY NC illegal block (Tucker, C) 10 yards to the WCU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+4
98.1%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the WCaro 33Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+3
98.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Javonte Williams for 3 yds to the WCaro 30Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+47
97.9%
Freeman Jones 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:293% → 5%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
97.0%
Tyrie Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 28Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
97.2%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Daquan PattenSimilar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+64
97.2%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Donnavan Spencer for 64 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.5%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Owen CosenkeSimilar
Q3 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
96.5%
Donnavan Spencer run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 9Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
96.8%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Daquan Patten for no gain to the NCaro 9Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
95.5%
Will Horton 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:2397% → 99%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
96.5%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the WCaro 49Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+4
96.5%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the WCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+35
96.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Javonte Williams for 35 yds to the WCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
96.5%
Jordon Brown run for 9 yds to the WCaro 1Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
96.5%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the WCaro 2Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.6%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.6%
Tyrie Adams rush left for 6 yards to the WCU31 (Rene, P), PENALTY WCU illegal formation 5 yards to the WCU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
98.6%
Tyrie Adams deep pass incomplete to Kenny Benton (Morrison, T), PENALTY NC pass interference (Morrison, T) 15 yards to the WCU35, 1ST DOWN WCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.5%
Connell Young run for 6 yds to the WCaro 41Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+36
98.5%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Donnavan Spencer for 36 yds to the UNC 23 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
98.3%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete, broken up by Xach GillSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+22
98.4%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Connell Young for 22 yds Connell Young fumbled, forced by Cole Holcomb, recovered by NCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
98.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 21 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
98.6%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
98.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Michael MurphySimilar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
98.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Javonte WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
98.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Daquan Patten at the WCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
98.7%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Nate Mullen for 15 yds to the WCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.7%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Jordan Mathis for 20 yds to the WCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.7%
Tyrie Adams run for no gain to the WCaro 45Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
98.7%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Daquan PattenSimilar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
98.7%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Kenny Benton, broken up by Corey Bell Jr.Similar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+27
98.7%
Ian Berryman punt for 42 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 27 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:1799% → 100%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.1%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
99.1%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the WCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
99.2%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the WCaro 37 for a 1ST down WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Mitchell Chancey) to the WCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
99.2%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the WCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.2%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the WCaro 9Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
99.2%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the WCaro 2Similar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:000% → 1%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Donnavan Spencer run for 3 yds to the WCaro 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
99.9%
Tyrie Adams run for 23 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
99.9%
Tyrie Adams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (J.K. Britt) to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.0%
Tyrie Adams run for 23 yds for a TD (Will Horton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:3599% → 100%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.2%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
99.3%
Manny Miles run for 5 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.3%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+12
99.3%
Manny Miles pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 12 yds to the WCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.3%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the WCaro 41Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+17
99.3%
British Brooks run for 17 yds to the WCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.3%
British Brooks run for 5 yds to the WCaro 19Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
99.3%
Manny Miles pass incomplete to Roscoe JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+2
99.3%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the WCaro 17Similar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 3
OPP 17
0
99.5%
Manny Miles pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves, broken up by Reggie JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 27DOWNS
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:421% → 1%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.2%
Tyrie Adams run for no gain to the WCaro 17Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+16
99.2%
Tyrie Adams run for 16 yds to the WCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
99.2%
Connell Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 31Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+10
99.2%
Tyrie Adams deep pass incomplete to Nate Mullen, PENALTY NC holding (Bell, C) 10 yards to the WCU41, 1ST DOWN WCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
99.2%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 25 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.1%
Tyrie Adams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+5
99.0%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 5 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
99.0%
Tyrie Adams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-9
99.0%
Tyrie Adams sacked by Jake Lawler for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 13
OPP 24
0
99.1%
Tyrie Adams run for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+11
99.5%
Tyrie Adams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.7%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+12
99.7%
Javonte Williams run for 12 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+27
99.7%
British Brooks run for 27 yds to the WCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.7%
British Brooks run for 1 yd to the WCaro 43Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
99.7%
British Brooks run for 4 yds to the WCaro 39Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+3
99.7%
British Brooks run for 3 yds to the WCaro 36Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
99.7%
British Brooks run for no gain to the WCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
99.5%
Tyrie Adams run for 18 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Manny Miles pass complete to Jake Bargas for 38 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q3 6:51
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q2 6:11
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 54 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com