Try the model
MIA

Miami 38 at Virginia Tech 14

VT
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Lane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:58 · Brian Johnson 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense−1.5Pregame prior−8.9Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:28: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 3 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +6.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:06: Tre Turner run for 20 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +4.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:33: N'Kosi Perry run for 1 yd for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +14.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:40: Cam'Ron Davis run for 42 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +9.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q3 5:47: Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for 51 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +8.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 6:29MIA 4th & 5 at VT 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:35VT 4th & 4 at VT 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:11MIA 4th & 17 at MIA 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:12VT 4th & 7 at VT 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:16MIA 4th & 16 at MIA 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:35VT 4th & 7 at VT 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:12MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 41, down 4
    Close callPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:09VT 4th & 11 at VT 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:07MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:58VT 4th & 9 at MIA 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−6.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:19MIA 4th & 6 at VT 37, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−0.9
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:47VT 4th & 15 at VT 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−2.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:55VT 4th & 16 at VT 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−2.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:46VT 4th & 18 at MIA 28, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:49MIA 4th & 27 at VT 42, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:00VT 4th & 2 at VT 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:04VT 4th & 15 at MIA 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:59VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:28MIA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:06VT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:33MIA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:40MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:17MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:4631% → 33%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
31.2%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+1
31.4%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+14
31.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 14 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+45
32.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 45 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
32.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 15 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 6:1667% → 64%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
33.1%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
33.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Travis Homer for 11 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
34.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
34.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+10
34.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Caleb Farley) to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
34.1%
Cam'Ron Davis run for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-1
34.6%
Cam'Ron Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+33
35.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 33 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
35.1%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-5
35.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the VTech 11 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trayone Gray) to the VTech 21Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-4
35.8%
N'Kosi Perry run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+10
37.2%
Travis Homer run for 10 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
36.4%
Bubba Baxa 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:4536% → 37%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.3%
Terius Wheatley run for 9 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
37.3%
Steven Peoples run for 3 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
37.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven PeoplesSimilar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
37.2%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+5
37.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Trajan Bandy) to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
37.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
37.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0962% → 60%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
38.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mark Pope for 11 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
38.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-7
38.4%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Dax Hollifield for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 17
OWN 19
0
39.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
39.8%
Jack Spicer punt for 38 yds, downed at the VTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4639% → 39%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
39.3%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-1
39.5%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+2
39.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Phil Patterson for 2 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+23
39.2%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 23 yds , TEAM returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 30 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Travis HomerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1660% → 59%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
39.7%
N'Kosi Perry run for no gain to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
40.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 9 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-1
39.5%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
40.8%
Jack Spicer punt for 43 yds, downed at the VTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1040% → 40%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
40.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+20
40.3%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Shaquille Quarterman return for 20 yds to the VTech 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 3 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1436% → 46%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
36.7%
Ryan Willis sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+7
36.5%
Steven Peoples run for 7 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+9
36.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jhavonte Dean) to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
38.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven PeoplesSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+23
37.8%
Ryan Willis run for 23 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
40.1%
Terius Wheatley run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
40.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+10
39.3%
Steven Peoples run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
40.9%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
45.8%
Tre Turner run for 20 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4456% → 53%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
43.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
43.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Divine Deablo) to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
42.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to N'Kosi Perry for a loss of 15 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 25
OWN 34
0
45.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 25
OWN 34
+9
46.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 9 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 16
OWN 43
0
47.2%
Jack Spicer punt for 50 yds, downed at the VTech 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2846% → 45%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
45.9%
Ryan Willis run for 8 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+5
46.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joe Jackson) to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
46.6%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
46.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
45.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1653% → 50%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
46.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
47.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Will Mallory for 9 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-1
48.4%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
50.5%
Jack Spicer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Damon Hazelton at the VTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5149% → 48%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
48.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
49.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Phil PattersonSimilar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
48.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Dalton KeeneSimilar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
48.0%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 49 yds, downed at the MiaFl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 2:2948% → 68%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
51.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Will Mallory for 13 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
50.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Will Mallory for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
50.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
49.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 6 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
48.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 11 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
47.4%
Travis Homer run for 10 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
47.6%
Travis Homer run for 9 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
47.3%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
47.4%
N'Kosi Perry run for 13 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.5%
N'Kosi Perry run for 1 yd for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.6%
Steven Peoples run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4364% → 61%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.5%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
35.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Travis HomerSimilar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
36.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q3 14:07
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
38.6%
Jack Spicer punt for 36 yds, downed at the VTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17MISSED FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:0438% → 39%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
38.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Phil PattersonSimilar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
38.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
41.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 14 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
41.9%
Steven Peoples run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
43.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
42.9%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
41.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Phil PattersonSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
38.9%
Brian Johnson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:1163% → 76%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
37.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Darrell LanghamSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
37.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 9 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
35.8%
Cam'Ron Davis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
35.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
36.2%
N'Kosi Perry run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
50
0
35.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
50
+8
33.9%
N'Kosi Perry run for 8 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+42
24.0%
Cam'Ron Davis run for 42 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:5524% → 26%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
24.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Phil Patterson for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
24.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 12 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
26.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Phil PattersonSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
25.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 1 yd Damon Hazelton fumbled, forced by Romeo Finley, recovered by MiaFl Sheldrick Redwine , return for 7 yds to the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0677% → 76%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
23.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 6 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 4
OPP 35
-2
22.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
23.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Darrell LanghamSimilar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
23.9%
Jack Spicer punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2524% → 13%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
23.5%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the VTech 15Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
23.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Chris CunninghamSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 9
OWN 15
-6
21.1%
Ryan Willis sacked by Shaquille Quarterman and Zach McCloud for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 9Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 15
OWN 9
+51
12.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for 51 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3513% → 12%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
13.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 8 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-4
14.2%
Tre Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 16
OWN 24
0
12.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven PeoplesSimilar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+27
12.3%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for 27 yds to the VTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:2890% → 98%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
9.8%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Nasir Peoples and Ricky Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 19
OPP 48
+10
8.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Travis Homer for 10 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+30
8.4%
Travis Homer run for 30 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
6.6%
Cam'Ron Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 11Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
6.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Navaughn Donaldson) to the VTech 16Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
1.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Cam'Ron Davis for 16 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:194% → 3%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
3.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
3.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Phil Patterson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
50
+19
3.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 19 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
4.1%
Tre Turner run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+2
4.1%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
4.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+3
3.3%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-9
3.1%
Ryan Willis sacked by Michael Jackson and Joe Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 18
OPP 28
0
2.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Dalton KeeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 6:4698% → 99%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
1.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 13 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
1.4%
Cam'Ron Davis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
1.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 2 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-5
1.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Hayden Mahoney) to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+35
1.0%
Cam'Ron Davis run for 35 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
1.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for 4 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-1
0.8%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 22Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-15
0.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 22
OPP 37
+5
0.8%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 17
OPP 32
-5
0.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 22
OPP 37
-5
0.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Mark Pope) to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 27
OPP 42
0
0.6%
Zach Feagles punt for 38 yds, downed at the VTech 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26INT
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:311% → 1%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+22
1.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 22 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
1.1%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 25Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+10
1.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Coleman Fox for 10 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-1
1.0%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+7
1.0%
Ryan Willis run for 7 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+26
1.0%
Jalen Holston run for 26 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
1.1%
Jalen Holston run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-2
1.1%
Coleman Fox run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-10
0.9%
Ryan Willis sacked by Sheldrick Redwine for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 15
OPP 38
+10
0.8%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Jhavonte Dean return for 10 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
0.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Demetrius Jackson) to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 15
OWN 5
-2
0.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lorenzo Lingard) to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 17
OWN 3
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 18
OWN 2
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:33
N'Kosi Perry run for 1 yd for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)
-14.9
TD · Q3 9:40
Cam'Ron Davis run for 42 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)
-9.9
PUNT · Q3 5:47
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for 51 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com