Try the model
BC

Boston College 21 at Florida State 22

FSU
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:28 · Logan Tyler punt for 37 yds , Michael Walker returns for 1 yd to the BC 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense−2.1Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−1.3Pregame prior−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:35: Cam Akers run for 4 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:36: Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 26 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +16.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:45: AJ Dillon run for 6 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +26.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:04: Ricky Aguayo 37 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +10.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 1:49: Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 74 yds for a TD Timeout FLORIDA ST, clock 01:49 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FSU win probability +46.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10BC made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 12:51FSU 4th & 16 at BC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:51BC 4th & 6 at BC 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:56FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:16BC 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:59BC 4th & 1 at FSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:17BC 4th & 12 at FSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:25FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:11BC 4th & 9 at BC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:36BC 4th & 4 at FSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:57FSU 4th & 3 at BC 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:55FSU 4th & 12 at BC 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:57FSU 4th & 5 at BC 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−6.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:41BC 4th & 3 at FSU 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%−0.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−8.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:28FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 18, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−3.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:31BC 4th & 7 at BC 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:46FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:54BC 4th & 1 at FSU 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.7%−5.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−22.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:04FSU 4th & 10 at BC 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−3.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−12.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:38BC 4th & 5 at FSU 38, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−2.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−2.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:41FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 33, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:52BC 4th & 6 at FSU 45, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−2.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%−1.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:25BC 4th & 10 at BC 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 4:49BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:35FSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:36BC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:45BC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:49FSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    69.5%−2.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1MISSED FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:5547% → 48%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
47.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 25 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
47.3%
Cam Akers run for 19 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-7
47.4%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 28Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 17
OPP 28
0
47.5%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 17
OPP 28
+1
47.5%
Deondre Francois run for 1 yd to the BC 27Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+45
47.5%
Ricky Aguayo 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Zach AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
47.5%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 29Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
47.5%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+3
47.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 3 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
47.7%
Grant Carlson punt for 49 yds, downed at the FlaSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4048% → 48%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
47.9%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 22 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 17
OWN 12
0
47.9%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 17
OWN 12
0
47.9%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+3
47.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 3 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 14
OWN 15
0
47.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 44 yds, downed at the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4INT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:0352% → 52%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
47.7%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
47.7%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
47.8%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 1
50
+1
48.0%
Anthony Brown run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
47.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 3 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
47.5%
Travis Levy run for no gain to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
47.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 6 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
47.7%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted Hamsah Nasirildeen return for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
48.1%
Travis Levy run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+33
48.6%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Brandon Sebastian return for 33 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:0553% → 51%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
47.3%
AJ Dillon run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
47.3%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+10
47.4%
AJ Dillon run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
47.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
47.4%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
47.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
47.6%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete to Anthony BrownSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
48.0%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
48.8%
Colton Lichtenberg 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 2:3449% → 49%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
49.0%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
49.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 5 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-6
48.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-6 Yards) to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
48.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Cam AkersSimilar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+15
48.4%
Logan Tyler punt 48 yards to the BC30, fair catch by Michael Walker, PENALTY BC roughing the kicker (Hunter Long) 15 yards to the FS37, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 03:44.Similar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
49.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
50.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
50.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
50.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
50.7%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
49.9%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
49.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:4751% → 50%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
49.0%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+16
48.9%
AJ Dillon run for 16 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
48.5%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
48.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
49.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
49.9%
Grant Carlson punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 16 , Asante Samuel Jr. returns for no gain to the FlaSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9INT
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:5351% → 53%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
50.8%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+23
50.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 23 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
51.7%
Deondre Francois run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
52.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
52.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
52.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+9
52.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 9 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
53.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 35Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+1
54.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the BC 34Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+23
53.1%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Hamp Cheevers return for 23 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0252% → 51%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
48.2%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Fredrick JonesSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
48.2%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+1
48.5%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
49.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete, broken up by Dennis Briggs Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:0653% → 55%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
53.4%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+32
53.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 32 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
55.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
55.0%
Deondre Francois run for 5 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-5
54.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 25Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+7
54.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 7 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
55.1%
Ricky Aguayo 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.0%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
54.2%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted Stanford Samuels III return for 2 yds to the BC 27 FLORIDA ST Penalty, illegal block (Dontavious Jackson) to the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2857% → 55%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
56.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Tre' McKitty) to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
55.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
55.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+3
55.1%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
54.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:1945% → 58%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
55.0%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 23Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
55.2%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 23Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+21
56.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 21 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
52.6%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
52.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to AJ DillonSimilar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+16
53.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 16 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+34
52.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 34 yds to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
42.0%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 3:3045% → 51%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
45.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 21 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
47.8%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for 13 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
48.7%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
48.6%
Deondre Francois run for no gain to the BC 44Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+14
46.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 14 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
49.6%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+8
49.6%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-9
52.1%
D.J. Matthews sacked by Max Richardson for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 22Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 19
OPP 22
0
51.1%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKittySimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 19
OPP 22
+14
47.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 14 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
50.8%
Ricky Aguayo 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
47.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 19Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
48.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:5753% → 54%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.1%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+42
46.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 42 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
43.4%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+1
43.0%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-1
44.2%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 3
OPP 24
0
46.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5749% → 47%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
49.1%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-6
49.9%
Deondre Francois sacked by Zach Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 11
OWN 23
-5
47.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Jauan Williams) to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 16
OWN 18
0
47.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan Murray, broken up by Zach AllenSimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 16
OWN 18
+1
46.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 37 yds , Michael Walker returns for 1 yd to the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3755% → 52%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
45.0%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
50
-1
44.4%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 49Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
45.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Travis Levy, broken up by Jaiden WoodbeySimilar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 7
OWN 49
+9
47.9%
Grant Carlson punt for 45 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 9 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 1:2649% → 67%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
49.0%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+6
49.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 6 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+45
48.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 45 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
55.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Naseir Upshur for 28 yds to the BC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.2%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
66.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, personal foul (Zaquandre White) to the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:2437% → 57%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
63.0%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 35Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
64.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff Smith, broken up by A.J. WestbrookSimilar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+20
65.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 20 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
60.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 15 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
59.1%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+26
42.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 26 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2450% → 49%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
50.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
50.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+2
49.1%
Deondre Francois run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
48.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 44 yds , Michael Walker returns for no gain to the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23TD
20 plays · 82 yds · 6:2052% → 81%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
47.8%
Michael Walker run for 3 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+11
47.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to CJ Lewis for 11 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
46.4%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
44.3%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
44.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
45.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 3
50
+3
44.0%
Travis Levy run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
43.4%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-9
43.4%
Anthony Brown sacked by Brian Burns for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 45Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 18
OWN 45
+20
48.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 20 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
42.5%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
42.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+15
44.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 15 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
42.3%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
41.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+7
43.2%
Anthony Brown run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+4
45.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 4 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.4%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24FG
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:2325% → 40%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
25.1%
Cam Akers run for 55 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
32.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 3 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-3
32.1%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 20Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
29.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKittySimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
40.2%
Ricky Aguayo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:1367% → 72%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.6%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+26
29.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 26 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
26.8%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-1
25.8%
Anthony Brown sacked by Dontavious Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-10
26.2%
Anthony Brown rush quarterback scramble for 7 yards to the FS34 (Joshua Kaindoh), PENALTY BC holding (Jon Baker) 10 yards to the BC49, NO PLAY, clock 10:03.Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+13
28.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 13 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
27.8%
Grant Carlson punt for 26 yds, downed at the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:1638% → 30%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
37.6%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
37.3%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+9
35.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 9 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
34.8%
Deondre Francois run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
35.0%
Deondre Francois run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Cam AkersSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
33.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
30.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for no gain to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
30.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:1277% → 89%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
22.9%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 36Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
23.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+15
21.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 15 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
16.6%
Jeff Smith run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
16.4%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
15.8%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-5
10.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
10.6%
Grant Carlson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:4226% → 73%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
26.2%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+5
26.8%
Deondre Francois run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
72.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 74 yds for a TD Timeout FLORIDA ST, clock 01:49 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1035% → 29%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
65.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
66.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
68.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+2
71.1%
Anthony Brown run for 2 yds to the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
82.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 44Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 13
OPP 44
-3
81.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:49
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 74 yds for a TD Timeout FLORIDA ST, clock 01:49 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+46.1
TD · Q4 13:45
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
-26.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com