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LIB

Liberty 24 at Virginia 45

UVA
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:18 · Lester Coleman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by B.J. Farrow at the Liber 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior+25.6Home team on offense+8.1Score differential+1.8Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:07: Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +7.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 60%).
  2. TD · Q3 14:50: Alex Probert kickoff for 65 yds , Joe Reed return for 90 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +3.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:18: Peytton Pickett run for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +7.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:21: Bryce Perkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +4.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:30: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 4LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:34LIB 4th & 1 at UVA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30LIB 4th & 1 at UVA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:53LIB 4th & 5 at UVA 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:35LIB 4th & 5 at UVA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:18UVA 4th & 7 at LIB 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.2%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:03LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:40UVA 4th & 7 at LIB 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 1 at LIB 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−1.0
    86% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:24LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 36, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:41UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 25, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:15LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:34LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:30UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:19UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:37UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:07LIB Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:18LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:21UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:30UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:266% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 5 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
94.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
94.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 4 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
94.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
94.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 5 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
94.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 29 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
94.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+18
94.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 18 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
94.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 4 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
94.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the Virg 2Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Virg 1Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:0493% → 93%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+29
92.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 29 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
92.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 9 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+3
92.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Liber 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
92.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 14 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:378% → 9%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the Liber 25Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
92.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 18 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
92.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 6 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
92.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
92.3%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+9
92.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 9 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
92.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. Farrow, broken up by Tim HarrisSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
92.3%
Peytton Pickett run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
91.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+51
91.4%
Alex Probert 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:3492% → 93%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
91.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 15 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
91.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+12
91.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 12 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
91.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+9
92.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 9 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
92.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the Liber 13Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+13
92.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 13 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5INT
15 plays · 57 yds · 3:578% → 10%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 8 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
92.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
92.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 30Similar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
92.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 5 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
91.8%
Peytton Pickett run for 7 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+26
91.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 26 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
91.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
91.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 7 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+4
91.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Peytton Pickett for 4 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
91.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
91.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+2
90.5%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted Elliott Brown return for 2 yds to the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:4091% → 94%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
91.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+22
91.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
50
+11
91.7%
Tavares Kelly run for 11 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
91.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
91.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
91.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Liber 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
91.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 15 yds to the Liber 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
91.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Liber 9Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+8
91.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Liber 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:027% → 8%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
93.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 10 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
93.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+16
93.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 16 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
92.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 10 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
92.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 8 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+3
92.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
92.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
92.2%
Peytton Pickett run for no gain to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+3
92.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Peytton Pickett for 3 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
91.8%
Alex Probert 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+33
91.7%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Bejour Wilson return for 33 yds to the Virg 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
84.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 2:0487% → 90%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
87.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
87.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 9 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
87.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 6
50
+33
87.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 18 yds to the VIRGINIA 32 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Juwan Wells) to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
88.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
87.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
87.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Liber 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
87.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Jeremy PetersSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
87.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, HOLD (Jordan Ellis) to the Liber 15Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
90.2%
Brian Delaney 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:327% → 15%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
92.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
92.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
92.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
92.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 20 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
92.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 16 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
85.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
88.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 23 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
89.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
89.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
88.9%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for no gain to the Liber 38Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
88.0%
Lester Coleman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by B.J. Farrow at the Liber 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
87.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 6Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+1
87.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 7Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+7
88.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Peytton Pickett for 7 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
88.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Brenton NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:5090% → 94%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
90.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
90.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 5 yds to the Liber 9Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
94.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.9%
Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
92.6%
Peytton Pickett run for 5 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
92.5%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.5%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted De'Vante Cross return for no gain to the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
94.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+8
94.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
94.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
94.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 17 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
94.6%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 45Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+3
94.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+1
94.3%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 1 yd to the Liber 41Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
93.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 35 yds, downed at the Liber 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19INT
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-5
93.9%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Robert Snyder for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 1Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 15
OWN 1
0
94.0%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted Juan Thornhill return for no gain to the Liber 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3896% → 99%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
96.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+2
96.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+6
96.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
96.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
96.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Corbin JacksonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+5
96.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 5 yds to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+6
95.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the Liber 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the Liber 25Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 5 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 4 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
99.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 48 yds, downed at the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+5
99.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 1
OWN 25
-6
99.2%
Lester Coleman punt for 44 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 8 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
99.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chuck Davis at the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24END OF HALF
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
99.5%
Lamont Atkins run for 9 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
99.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+8
99.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:07
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q3 12:18
Peytton Pickett run for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)
-7
TD · Q3 7:21
Bryce Perkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com