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VT

Virginia Tech 22 at Pittsburgh 52

PITT
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Oscar Bradburn punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 22 , Rafael Araujo-Lopes returns for 16 yds to the Pitt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense+2.7Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Pregame prior+2.9Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:01: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 78 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +10.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:38: Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 29 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — VT win probability +10.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:54: Maurice Ffrench run for 12 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +11.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:35: George Aston run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +7.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:34: Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 24 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — VT win probability +8.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00VT 4th & 7 at PITT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:35PITT 4th & 12 at VT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:35VT 4th & 6 at PITT 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00VT 4th & 3 at VT 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:01VT 4th & 1 at PITT 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−2.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−8.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:55VT 4th & 10 at PITT 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−7.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:54VT 4th & 6 at VT 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:38VT 4th & 1 at PITT 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:38VT 4th & 1 at PITT 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−1.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:00VT 4th & 5 at PITT 5, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:04VT 4th & 1 at VT 26, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:48PITT 4th & 2 at VT 31, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:41VT 4th & 3 at PITT 3, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:43VT 4th & 9 at PITT 23, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 1:59PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:01PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:38VT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:54PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:35PITT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:00VT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:04PITT Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:34VT Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:48PITT Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:43PITT Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
53.8%
Terius Wheatley run for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
53.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 13 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
53.8%
Steven Peoples run for 5 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+1
53.8%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-3
53.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
53.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 6:1054% → 55%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
54.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+3
54.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 3 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+9
54.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 9 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
54.2%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+5
54.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 5 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+26
54.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 26 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
54.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 17 yds to the VTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
54.5%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
54.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
54.4%
Kenny Pickett run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 30 Kenny Pickett fumbled, recovered by Pitt Kenny Pickett , return for no gain to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+48
55.4%
Alex Kessman 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
55.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 21 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
54.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 1 yd to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
54.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-1
55.0%
Ryan Willis sacked by Rashad Weaver for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
55.6%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:2256% → 61%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
55.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 27 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
56.9%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Dax Hollifield for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+53
56.0%
Darrin Hall run for 53 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
61.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:5940% → 39%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.3%
Steven Peoples run for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
59.6%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
60.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 7 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
59.7%
Steven Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+9
61.5%
Ryan Willis run for 9 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+16
61.0%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 22 , Rafael Araujo-Lopes returns for 16 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD
1 play · 78 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
71.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 78 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 30 yds · 3:0631% → 27%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
69.2%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
68.8%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+15
69.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 15 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
68.2%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
68.2%
Quincy Patterson II run for no gain to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+8
68.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 8 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
68.5%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
67.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
68.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Peoples, broken up by Rashad WeaverSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
72.3%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
73.5%
Brian Johnson 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:1381% → 82%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
81.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 20Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+58
81.1%
Darrin Hall run for 58 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
82.2%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 23Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+5
83.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+15
82.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 15 yds Kenny Pickett fumbled, forced by Jermaine Waller, recovered by VTech Rico KearneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1125% → 38%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
75.5%
Terius Wheatley run for 9 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
74.5%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
74.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 21 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
73.1%
Willis, R pass incomplete to Kumah, E (Pinnock, J.), PENALTY UP pass interference (Jackson, D.) 15 yards to the UP29, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
62.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 29 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:4473% → 86%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
73.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 32 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
74.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 21 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
74.9%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+13
74.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 13 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
74.5%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
85.7%
Maurice Ffrench run for 12 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
79.5%
Ryan Willis sacked by Jason Pinnock for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 4Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 15
OWN 4
+9
79.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 9 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
79.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
79.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rafael Araujo-Lopes at the Pitt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:0384% → 92%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
84.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
84.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 6 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+7
83.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
84.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
84.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 44Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+43
84.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 43 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.5%
George Aston run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:3313% → 12%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
87.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 8 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-10
87.5%
Willis, R pass complete to Grimsley, H for 7 yards to the UP45, out-of-bounds (Zeise, E.), PENALTY VT holding (Chung, K) 10 yards to the VT38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+20
88.9%
Steven Peoples run for 20 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
87.8%
Ryan Willis sacked by Dewayne Hendrix for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
91.2%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+8
91.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 8 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
90.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 50 yds , Hezekiah Grimsley returns for 2 yds to the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 7:388% → 15%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
91.7%
Steven Peoples run for 5 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+18
91.4%
Ryan Willis run for 18 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
91.4%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
91.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
91.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 5 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
91.3%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
91.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
91.4%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+6
91.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 6 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+3
91.3%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
90.5%
Willis, R pass incomplete to Kumah, E (Jackson, D.), PENALTY UP pass interference (Jackson, D.) 15 yards to the UP19, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
90.3%
Quincy Patterson II run for 2 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
90.3%
Quincy Patterson II run for no gain to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+12
91.1%
Ryan Willis run for 12 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
90.3%
Terius Wheatley run for 1 yd to the Pitt 4Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.3%
Quincy Patterson II pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
90.9%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 5Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
85.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Willis pass to Eric Kumah for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5690% → 97%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.4%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
96.5%
Darrin Hall run for 73 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17TD
15 plays · 95 yds · 6:304% → 11%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
96.3%
Jalen Holston run for 5 yds to the VTech 10Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+7
96.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 7 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
96.1%
Ryan Willis sacked by Elias Reynolds for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 15Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+1
96.2%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 16Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+10
96.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 10 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+3
96.1%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
96.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 22 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
95.9%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+15
97.9%
Willis, R pass incomplete to Keene, D (Reynolds, E.), PENALTY UP roughing passer (Weaver, R.) 15 yards to the UP42, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
97.8%
Steven Peoples run for 5 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+1
97.7%
Sean Savoy run for 1 yd to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+5
97.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 5 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
97.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 7 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+24
89.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 24 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:4695% → 99%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
50
-3
94.8%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+10
94.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 10 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
94.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Qadree OllisonSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
94.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+2
94.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+31
98.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 31 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 63 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.8%
Ryan Willis run for no gain to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
98.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 7 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
98.8%
Ryan Willis run for 4 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+39
98.8%
Ryan Willis run for 39 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
98.9%
Jalen Holston run for 12 yds to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.9%
Hezekiah Grimsley run for no gain to the Pitt 4Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
98.9%
Quincy Patterson II run for 1 yd to the Pitt 3Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Dane JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric Kumah, broken up by Oluwaseun IdowuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
1 play · 97 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+97
99.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 97 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.9%
Jalen Holston run for 6 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
99.9%
Jalen Holston run for 6 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.9%
Terius Wheatley run for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
99.9%
Sean Savoy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+9
99.9%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Tre Turner for 9 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+3
99.9%
Terius Wheatley run for 3 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
Quincy Patterson II run for 1 yd to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Terius Wheatley run for no gain to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Quincy Patterson II pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 9
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Quincy Patterson II pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:54
Maurice Ffrench run for 12 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q2 6:38
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 29 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q2 14:01
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 78 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com