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FSU

Florida State 13 at Notre Dame 42

ND
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.4ND 88.6%Justin Yoon 26 Yd Field GoalAWAY 0 - HOME 17 · Q1 5:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:53 · Justin Yoon 26 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+32.1Home team on offense+4.8Score differential+2.4Garbage-time factor+1.3Blowout margin−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:51: Alize Mack 6 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +1.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:17: Cam Akers 8 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo PAT blocked) — FSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:37: Dexter Williams 58 Yd Run (Justin Yoon PAT blocked) — ND win probability +3.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:18: Alize Mack 15 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +3.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:35: Cam Akers 7 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:54FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:53ND 4th & 4 at FSU 8, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.8%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:00FSU 4th & 1 at ND 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−1.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−4.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:40FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 45, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:08FSU 4th & 6 at ND 33, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:44FSU 4th & 8 at ND 47, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:41ND 4th & 8 at ND 37, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:08ND 4th & 8 at FSU 18, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:44FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 45, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:40FSU 4th & 3 at ND 3, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    -1.2%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:13FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 28, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:11ND 4th & 1 at ND 45, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:58FSU 4th & 8 at ND 41, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:45FSU 4th & 20 at ND 22, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:45ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:51ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:37ND Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:18ND Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:35FSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:10ND Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2314% → 14%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+27
86.4%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Nick Coleman return for 27 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2386% → 87%
Q1 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.4%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.5%
Miles Boykin 3 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3814% → 14%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.4%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
86.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to George Campbell for 4 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
86.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
86.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 46 yds, downed at the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 4:5686% → 88%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
86.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
86.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 10 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
86.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
86.2%
Dexter Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+12
86.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 12 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
86.4%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
86.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+15
86.4%
Wimbush, Brandon pass pass intercepted by Meyers, Kyle at the FLORIDAST23, Meyers, Kyle return 0 yards to the FLORIDAST23, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Meyers, Kyle) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
86.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for no gain to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
86.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+10
86.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 10 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
86.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 3 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
86.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q1 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.1%
Alize Mack 6 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
87.6%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 14 Cam Akers fumbled, forced by Adetokunbo Ogundeji, recovered by NDame Daelin HayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4288% → 89%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
88.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chris Finke, broken up by Demarcus ChristmasSimilar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
88.2%
Brandon Wimbush run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
88.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chris Finke, broken up by A.J. WestbrookSimilar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
88.6%
Justin Yoon 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
22 plays · 75 yds · 7:2712% → 14%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 11 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
88.2%
Francois, Deondre pass complete to Murray, Nyqwan for 1 yard to the FLORIDAST37, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Hayes, Daelin) 5 yards to the FLORIDAST41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+2
88.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
88.1%
Cam Akers pass incomplete to Deondre FrancoisSimilar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+10
88.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 10 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
88.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 1 yd to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
88.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+10
88.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 10 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
88.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 3 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
88.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 6 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
88.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to George Campbell for 2 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
88.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Nick ColemanSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
89.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 4 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+5
89.2%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Terry, Tamorrion, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Kareem, Khalid) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
89.1%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
91.0%
Deondre Francois run for 2 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q2 13:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.8%
Cam Akers 8 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo PAT blocked)Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 0
OPP 3
0
86.5%
Julian Love Defensive PAT Conversion Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3289% → 93%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.4%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
89.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Robert Hainsey) to the NDame 23Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
89.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
89.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 17 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
92.7%
Dexter Williams 58 Yd Run (Justin Yoon PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:236% → 7%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
94.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
91.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
92.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
92.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 16 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
91.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 7 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-3
90.2%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
91.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to George CampbellSimilar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
92.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to George CampbellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:3993% → 97%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
93.2%
Dexter Williams run for 10 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
93.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 21 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
93.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Alize Mack, broken up by Cyrus FaganSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
93.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+17
93.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 17 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
96.6%
Alize Mack 15 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:223% → 3%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+19
97.2%
Cam Akers run for 19 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews, broken up by Alohi GilmanSimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
96.8%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
96.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
97.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 40 yds, downed at the NDame 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5497% → 98%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
96.8%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+14
96.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 14 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
97.0%
Jafar Armstrong run for 8 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
96.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Cole KmetSimilar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
96.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Cole Kmet, broken up by Brian BurnsSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
97.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chris Finke, broken up by Jaiden WoodbeySimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
97.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 44 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:342% → 1%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+40
98.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 40 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.1%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
98.1%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan Murray, broken up by Jalen ElliottSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+12
98.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 12 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-12
97.9%
Deondre Francois sacked by Drue Tranquill and Daelin Hayes for a loss of 12 yards to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 22
OPP 41
-5
98.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Mike Arnold) to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 27
OPP 46
+11
98.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 11 yds to the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3698% → 98%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles Boykin, broken up by Joshua KaindohSimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.8%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
98.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass intercepted Stanford Samuels III return for 10 yds to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:372% → 9%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
97.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 8 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
97.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+15
97.3%
Cam Akers run for 15 yds to the NDame 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.0%
Cam Akers 7 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1995% → 97%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.0%
Dexter Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
95.3%
Dexter Williams run for 10 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
95.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 11 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+26
95.6%
Dexter Williams run for 26 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
95.7%
Williams, Dexter rush for loss of 1 yard to the FLORIDAST21, PENALTY NOTREDAME illegal block (Hainsey, Robert) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+5
95.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 20
OPP 30
+4
95.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+8
95.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 8 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
96.8%
Justin Yoon 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:204% → 3%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
96.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.5%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
96.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
96.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+28
96.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 37 yds , Chris Finke returns for 28 yds to the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3397% → 97%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles Boykin, broken up by Stanford Samuels IIISimilar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
97.3%
Dexter Williams run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
97.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass intercepted Dontavious Jackson return for 5 yds to the NDame 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:243% → 2%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
96.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Tre' McKitty) to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+1
96.8%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+8
96.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 8 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+10
97.2%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Murray, Nyqwan, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Love, Julian) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
96.9%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
96.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 6 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+5
97.1%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
96.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 12 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
97.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 7 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.1%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
97.5%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKittySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
12 plays · 97 yds · 5:2198% → 100%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
97.9%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 5Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+5
98.0%
Dexter Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+5
98.3%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
98.4%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
98.5%
Dexter Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
98.6%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+9
98.6%
Dexter Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.7%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+22
98.8%
Jafar Armstrong run for 22 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
98.9%
Dexter Williams run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
98.9%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+32
99.8%
Dexter Williams 32 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Cam AkersSimilar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Avery Davis run for 5 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Avery Davis run for 3 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
99.8%
Avery Davis run for 1 yd to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 34 yds, downed at the FlaSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23DOWNS
16 plays · 76 yds · 3:200% → 0%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-2
99.9%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+15
99.9%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Terry, Tamorrion, PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Tillery, Jerry) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.9%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Terry, Tamorrion, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Gilman, Alohi) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKittySimilar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 8
OPP 41
+14
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 14 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 7 yds Tamorrion Terry fumbled, recovered by FlaStSimilar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+8
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 8 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-5
99.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Jauan Williams) to the NDame 17Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 15
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 15
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 15
OPP 17
-5
99.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Cam Akers) to the NDame 22Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 20
OPP 22
+19
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 19 yds to the NDame 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24Uncategorized
12 plays · 51 yds · 6:20100% → 100%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
99.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 5
OWN 8
-4
99.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Josh Lugg) to the NDame 4Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+16
99.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 16 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 6 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Jafar Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
Jafar Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+8
99.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 8 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.9%
Avery Davis run for 1 yd to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+2
100.0%
Phil Jurkovec run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:35
Cam Akers 7 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)
-6.3
TD · Q2 13:17
Cam Akers 8 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo PAT blocked)
-4.6
TD · Q2 11:37
Dexter Williams 58 Yd Run (Justin Yoon PAT blocked)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com