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UNC

North Carolina 35 at Duke 42

DUKE
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:03 · Hunter Lent punt for 54 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 5 yds to the Duke 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense−1.0Pregame prior+8.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:55: Javonte Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +7.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:14: Dazz Newsome run for 84 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +10.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:16: Daniel Jones run for 61 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +9.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:42: Quentin Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +11.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:15: Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 13 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +13.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 6:16UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:23DUKE 4th & 21 at DUKE 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:29UNC 4th & 6 at DUKE 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:28DUKE 4th & 5 at UNC 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−4.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:03UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:52DUKE 4th & 8 at UNC 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:52UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:10UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:23UNC 4th & 11 at DUKE 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 30, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:53DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:27DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:32UNC 4th & 5 at DUKE 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:02DUKE 4th & 2 at UNC 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:59DUKE 4th & 12 at UNC 26, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:11UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:22DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:16UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:20DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:51DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:55UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:52DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 6:14UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:16DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:42DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:15UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4933% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
66.8%
Michael Carter run for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
66.8%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+4
66.8%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+12
66.8%
Antonio Williams run for 12 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
66.8%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
66.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jake Bargas for 9 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
66.8%
Michael Carter run for 17 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
65.3%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for 13 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4966% → 67%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
65.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, broken up by Corey Bell Jr.Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
65.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 13 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
65.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for no gain to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
65.7%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+52
66.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 52 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:0034% → 37%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
66.2%
Michael Carter run for 19 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
66.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 11 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
65.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
65.9%
Antonio Williams run for 13 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
65.7%
Antonio Williams run for no gain to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
62.9%
Michael Carter run for 40 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:5064% → 67%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
63.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
63.5%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+34
63.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 34 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
64.4%
Deon Jackson run for 14 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
66.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 26 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
65.5%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
65.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 2 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
65.7%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
66.0%
Hunter Lent punt for 35 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 1:4866% → 65%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
65.7%
Daniel Jones sacked by Dominique Ross and Tomon Fox for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+4
65.4%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+16
65.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 16 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
66.3%
Jones, D pass complete to Taylor, C for 54 yards to the NC0, clock 03:23, PENALTY DU pass interference (Taylor, C) 15 yards to the DU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+4
65.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 4 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 21
OWN 35
0
65.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, broken up by Trey MorrisonSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 21
OWN 35
0
64.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 21
OWN 35
0
64.5%
Austin Parker punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:1236% → 37%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.2%
Antonio Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
64.5%
Antonio Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+14
64.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 14 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
63.8%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
63.8%
Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
63.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 3 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+1
62.1%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
62.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 14:29
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
63.5%
Freeman Jones 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:3865% → 71%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
65.2%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Garner, J, PENALTY NC holding (Ross, G) 11 yards to the DU43, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+48
66.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 48 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
66.9%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
66.9%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:5030% → 40%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
69.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
70.0%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+11
70.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 11 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
69.4%
Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
68.6%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+35
68.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 35 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
67.4%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
67.4%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.2%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0365% → 74%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Deon Jackson, broken up by Dominique RossSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
65.3%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Rahming, T.J. (Ross, G), PENALTY NC pass interference (Ross, G) 15 yards to the NC49, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
66.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+15
66.4%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Jackson, D, PENALTY NC pass interference (Ross, D) 15 yards to the NC30, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
66.9%
Deon Jackson run for 10 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
66.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+8
66.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 8 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
66.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Trevon Lee for 4 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
73.9%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
3 plays · 89 yds · 0:3329% → 39%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
71.4%
Elliott, N pass complete to Newsome, D for 1 yard to the NC12 (Waters, M), PENALTY DU offside (Dimukeje, V) 5 yards to the NC16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 5
OWN 16
+84
60.6%
Dazz Newsome run for 84 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12MISSED FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:4664% → 64%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.7%
Johnathan Lloyd run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
63.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by D.J. FordSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+20
62.4%
Daniel Jones run for 20 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
65.8%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+5
64.7%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 6
50
+7
65.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 7 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
66.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
66.0%
Daniel Jones run for 11 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
66.7%
T.J. Rahming run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+16
66.6%
Daniel Jones run for 16 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
66.7%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
66.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor DUKE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
65.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Malik CarneySimilar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
63.8%
Collin Wareham 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:2541% → 38%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
59.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 3 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
59.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 3 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-8
59.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 7 yds to the NCaro 33 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Jake Bargas) to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
60.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+5
61.9%
Hunter Lent punt for 54 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:3563% → 74%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
63.3%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
65.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+61
74.1%
Daniel Jones run for 61 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
73.5%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16MISSED FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:0474% → 75%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
73.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Trevon Lee for 9 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
74.7%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+11
73.2%
Daniel Jones run for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
74.6%
Daniel Jones sacked by Jason Strowbridge for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
73.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+17
72.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 17 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
75.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 2 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+9
75.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 9 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
75.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 16 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
76.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
76.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+2
75.1%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
74.9%
Collin Wareham 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tomon Fox Greg Ross return for no gain to the NCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
72.2%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
71.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 11 yds to the DUKE 43 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Carl Tucker) to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+1
71.1%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
71.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete, broken up by Trevon McSwainSimilar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
73.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:0077% → 79%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
76.8%
Deon Jackson run for 18 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
78.6%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
78.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, broken up by Cole HolcombSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+10
77.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 10 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
78.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+14
78.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 14 yds Chris Taylor fumbled, forced by Malik Carney, recovered by NCaro Malik CarneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
74.3%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
74.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 9
OPP 0
0
70.8%
Carter, M rush for 11 yards to the NC36 (Hill, B), PENALTY DU offside off-setting, PENALTY NC holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
75.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Hunter Lent punt for 34 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
80.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Jalen Dalton) to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 5
OWN 46
0
80.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
80.6%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 1
50
-5
79.9%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Zach Harmon) to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+10
79.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 10 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
80.9%
Daniel Jones sacked by Jalen Dalton for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 39 Daniel Jones fumbled, recovered by NCaro Tomon Fox , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the Duke 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0025% → 28%
Q3 4:23
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+6
75.2%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 11
OPP 40
+18
76.0%
Hunter Lent punt for 33 yds, downed at the Duke 7 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
72.0%
Rontavius Groves pass incomplete to Jake BargasSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-7
72.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:5780% → 93%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
80.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 8 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+68
81.3%
Daniel Jones run for 68 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.7%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3511% → 10%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
89.1%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
89.2%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+6
89.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 6 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
90.3%
Hunter Lent punt for 45 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
93.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
93.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
93.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
92.5%
Austin Parker punt for 29 yds , Patrice Rene returns for no gain to the NCaro 30 Patrice Rene fumbled, recovered by NCaro Javonte WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
90.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
90.5%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+2
90.2%
Nathan Elliott run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
90.3%
Hunter Lent punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 19 , T.J. Rahming returns for no gain to the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
93.8%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-1
93.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 17Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+14
93.4%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Taylor, C, PENALTY NC personal foul (Fox, T) 14 yards to the DU31, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
94.0%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
93.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Patrice ReneSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
93.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 9
OWN 32
-5
93.1%
DUKE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 14
OWN 27
+21
92.9%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 48 , Dazz Newsome returns for 21 yds to the Duke 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
91.1%
Michael Carter run for 12 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
91.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for no gain to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
91.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 4 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+1
91.0%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 5
OPP 31
0
91.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:1095% → 96%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
95.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
95.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 6 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+4
95.5%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Malik CarneySimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
95.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+3
96.5%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
96.2%
Austin Parker punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 29TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 4:016% → 22%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 2 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
93.9%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+4
93.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 4 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan HayesSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
93.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
94.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
92.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
92.2%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
92.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 7 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
92.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+6
92.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 6 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
91.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Josh BlackwellSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
92.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 8 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+2
92.2%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
91.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 9 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
77.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 13 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 30INT
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:1296% → 96%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
95.5%
DUKE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+1
95.4%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+1
96.2%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+1
96.5%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 12
OPP 26
0
96.0%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Myles Dorn return for no gain to the NCaro 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:007% → 10%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
92.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 20 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
91.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 8 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+13
90.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
89.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
90.0%
Bryson Richardson pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Brandon FeamsterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:15
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 13 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 1:42
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q2 6:14
Dazz Newsome run for 84 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
-10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com