2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:55 · Andre Szmyt 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 10:43: Chris Elmore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +13.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:57: Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +10.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:49: Eric Dungey run for 26 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +12.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:38: Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +10.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:55: Andre Szmyt 28 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +6.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 11SYR made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 15:00WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.8%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q1 13:57SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snapGo for it64.7%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.8%average punt
- Q1 13:25WAKE 4th & 6 at SYR 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.4%40% to convertField goal35.4%−<0.158% to makePunt35.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 11:42SYR 4th & 11 at SYR 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it62.7%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.8%average punt
- Q1 10:43WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snapGo for it37.7%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%average punt
- Q1 9:05SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 4, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it60.1%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.4%average punt
- Q1 6:12WAKE 4th & 4 at SYR 4, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snapGo for it41.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call41.6%−0.193% to makePunt40.0%−1.8average punt
- Q1 4:17WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 20, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snapGo for it38.5%−0.916% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.4%average punt
- Q1 3:14SYR 4th & 3 at WAKE 43, down 3Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snapGo for it59.9%52% to convertField goal59.1%−0.828% to makePuntTheir call59.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 0:52SYR 4th & 1 at WAKE 1, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.7%59% to convertField goal57.6%−1.194% to makePunt54.5%−4.2average punt
- Q2 15:00WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 47, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snapGo for it37.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.0%average punt
- Q2 9:41SYR 4th & 1 at WAKE 29, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.3%71% to convertField goal60.7%−1.658% to makePunt57.5%−4.9average punt
- Q2 9:37WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 26, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snapGo for it35.9%−1.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.5%average punt
- Q2 8:38SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 32, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snapGo for it59.4%−1.431% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.8%average punt
- Q2 6:58WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 26, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snapGo for it36.3%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.0%average punt
- Q2 4:51SYR 4th & 1 at WAKE 18, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.5%71% to convertField goal60.7%−1.879% to makePunt55.8%−6.7average punt
- Q2 0:34WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 34, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snapGo for it26.4%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.4%average punt
- Q3 3:38SYR 4th & 2 at SYR 46, up 11Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snapGo for it78.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.9%−0.9average punt
- Q4 11:55SYR 4th & 10 at WAKE 10, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snapGo for it81.3%−1.124% to convertField goalTheir call82.4%88% to makePunt75.6%−6.9average punt
- Q4 11:55WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, down 14Close callWent for it · 12.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.2%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.4%average punt
- Q4 7:01SYR 4th & 12 at WAKE 16, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snapGo for it92.8%−1.021% to convertField goalTheir call93.7%81% to makePunt89.4%−4.4average punt
- Q4 2:26SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 45, up 17Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.4%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:16WAKE 4th & 8 at SYR 8, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.6%26% to convertField goal3.0%−0.690% to makePunt2.2%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 11:42WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.1%97% to makeGo for two37.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:17SYR Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.0%97% to makeGo for two59.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:52SYR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.3%97% to makeGo for two62.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:58SYR Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.2%97% to makeGo for two73.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:43SYR Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.3%97% to makeGo for two84.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:57WAKE Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.2%97% to makeGo for two23.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:49SYR Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.1%97% to makeGo for two87.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:38WAKE Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.5%97% to makeGo for two18.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
30.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 42 yds , Sean Riley returns for no gain to the Syrac 33 SYRACUSE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 13:57
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
31.5%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3TD8 plays · 47 yds · 1:4332% → 34%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
31.9%
Sam Hartman sacked by Ryan Guthrie for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 36Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+24
31.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 24 yds to the Syrac 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 0
OPP 5
+3
31.9%
Hartman, S slant pass incomplete to Bachman, A, PENALTY SU pass interference (Bradshaw, S.) 3 yards to the SU2, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.4%
Dontae Strickland run for 11 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 9:05
4TH & 10
OWN 4
+29
36.0%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 42 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 29 yds to the Syrac 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7FG7 plays · 13 yds · 1:3537% → 38%
Q1 7:47
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+10
37.4%
Hartman, S sacked for loss of 4 yards to the SU23 (Slayton, C.), PENALTY SU face mask (Robinson, A.) 10 yards to the SU9, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
37.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 5 yds to the Syrac 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5562% → 65%
WAKEDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 4:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
36.6%
Sam Hartman sacked by Kenneth Ruff for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 20Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
36.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Alex Bachman, broken up by Andre CiscoSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+15
35.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 45 yds , Sean Riley returns for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
WAKEDrive 11FUMBLE1 play · -7 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
37.5%
Sam Hartman sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 10 Sam Hartman fumbled, recovered by Syrac McKinley Williams , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12TD5 plays · 10 yds · 1:1664% → 65%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
34.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyler Williams) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 0:5235% → 35%
SYRDrive 14DOWNS14 plays · 51 yds · 4:4365% → 66%
Q2 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
34.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 4 yds to the Syrac 45Similar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
33.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 6 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
33.7%
Eric Dungey sacked by Rondell Bothroyd for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 16
OPP 44
-1
34.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
SYRDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 8:38
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-2
35.2%
Eric Dungey sacked by Manny Walker for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 32Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+2
36.4%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 50 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 2 yds to the WFrst 34 WAKE FOREST Penalty, illegal block (Nasir Greer) to the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
SYRDrive 18TD15 plays · 57 yds · 3:5367% → 78%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
32.9%
Dungey, E. deep pass incomplete to Harris, T., PENALTY WF pass interference (Henderson, A) 15 yards to the WF42, 1ST DOWN SU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
32.5%
Dungey, E. sideline pass incomplete to Custis, J., PENALTY WF roughing passer (Masterson, L) 15 yards to the WF27, 1ST DOWN SU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+10
33.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 10 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
31.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 6 yds to the WFrst 8Similar
Q2 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
31.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 2 yds to the WFrst 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 0:2424% → 25%
SYRDrive 20END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21TD11 plays · 65 yds · 4:1775% → 89%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-1
23.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 9 yds to the WAKEFOREST 49 SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive holding (Jamal Custis) to the Syrac 41Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
23.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 8 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+7
23.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 7 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
23.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4614% → 26%
Q3 10:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
13.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 14 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
14.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 27 yds to the Syrac 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
15.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 6 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
25.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0878% → 92%
Q3 8:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
22.1%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 14 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
20.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 4 yds to the Syrac 44Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
20.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 7 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1112% → 24%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
11.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 11 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
12.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 10 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+26
13.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 11 yds to the Syrac 34 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Scoop Bradshaw) to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
24.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
20.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 13 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
18.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 3 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
18.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 5 yds to the Syrac 46Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
18.9%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Jamal Custis, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+47
20.2%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 47 yds , Greg Dortch returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26FUMBLE7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
SYRDrive 27FG10 plays · 24 yds · 3:0985% → 91%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
15.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 12 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
15.3%
Dungey, E. deep pass incomplete to Pierce, R., PENALTY WF offside (Calhoun, C) 5 yards to the WF17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+8
15.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 8 yds to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
15.1%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
SYRDrive 29FG9 plays · 15 yds · 3:4893% → 98%
Q4 9:21
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+10
4.9%
Dungey, E. slant pass incomplete to Custis, J., PENALTY WF pass interference (Glenn, C) 10 yards to the WF14, 1ST DOWN SU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
4.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 3 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-6
4.8%
Eric Dungey sacked by Tyler Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 30INT7 plays · 60 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
5.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 23 yds to the Syrac 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+15
6.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 15 yds to the Syrac 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
6.3%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted, touchback. Christopher Fredrick return for no gain SYRACUSE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Christopher Fredrick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 31PUNT12 plays · 35 yds · 3:0298% → 99%
Q4 2:26
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+9
1.1%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 40 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 9 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 32DOWNS9 plays · 68 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+28
1.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 28 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
1.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 17 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
1.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 13 yds to the Syrac 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
1.4%
Hartman, S sideline pass incomplete to Bachman, A, PENALTY SU roughing passer (Richards, T.) 9 yards to the SU9, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 0
OPP 9
-10
1.4%
Hartman, S deep pass incomplete to Freudenthal, J, PENALTY WF holding (Gilliam, N) 10 yards to the SU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 0
OPP 19
+11
1.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 11 yds to the Syrac 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:43
Chris Elmore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 5:49
Eric Dungey run for 26 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q3 3:38
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+10.6