Try the model
DUKE

Duke 20 at Miami 12

MIA
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:26: Travis Homer run for 6 yds for a TD Timeout MIAMI FL, clock 07:26 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MIA win probability +6.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:26: Timeout MIAMI FL, clock 07:26 — DUKE win probability +6.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:18: Quentin Harris pass complete to Daniel Helm for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +24.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:20: Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd — DUKE win probability +12.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:14: Collin Wareham 33 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +8.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 13:21MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:25DUKE 4th & 2 at MIA 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:17MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:28DUKE 4th & 7 at MIA 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:26MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:45DUKE 4th & 8 at MIA 31, up 7
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:46MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:26DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:27DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 45, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:05DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:58MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 37, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:24DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:58MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 27, up 5
    Close callPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:08DUKE 4th & 10 at MIA 33, down 5
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:32DUKE 4th & 7 at MIA 9, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−9.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:46MIA 4th & 7 at DUKE 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−9.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:27MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 27, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−3.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:36DUKE 4th & 3 at MIA 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−2.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−5.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:03DUKE 4th & 10 at MIA 43, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−2.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:43MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 7, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−3.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:14DUKE 4th & 2 at MIA 15, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.2%−2.6
    83% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−19.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:35MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:15DUKE 4th & 8 at MIA 44, up 8
    Close callPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−0.2
    average punt
  24. Q4 2:44MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:48DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:26MIA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:18DUKE Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
77.9%
Deon Jackson run for 75 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1978% → 77%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
77.8%
Malik Rosier run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-13
77.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyler Gauthier) to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+9
77.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 9 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
77.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+4
77.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 39 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5623% → 24%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
77.1%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+4
77.0%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+5
76.7%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+4
76.3%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
76.0%
Austin Parker punt for 23 yds, downed at the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:5476% → 75%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
76.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 4 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+11
75.8%
Travis Homer run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
75.8%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
75.6%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
75.0%
Travis Homer run for no gain to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
74.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4526% → 27%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
73.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+3
73.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
73.5%
Austin Parker punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3474% → 72%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
73.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+1
73.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 13
OWN 5
+4
72.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
72.0%
Zach Feagles punt for 34 yds, downed at the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:2529% → 30%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
71.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
71.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
70.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-1
70.5%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+1
70.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 1 yd to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 8
OPP 31
0
70.3%
Daniel Jones punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3970% → 67%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
70.3%
Trayone Gray run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
70.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+9
69.5%
N'Kosi Perry run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
68.8%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+4
68.1%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
67.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
67.1%
Jack Spicer punt for 38 yds, downed at the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1134% → 33%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
66.5%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
66.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+2
67.2%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
67.4%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
72.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 83 yds for a TD (TEAM fumbled)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:3029% → 29%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
71.2%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
70.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
70.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
70.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Sheldrick Redwine) to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
69.1%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+1
69.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
69.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
70.9%
Austin Parker punt for 37 yds, downed at the MiaFl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:3671% → 79%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
70.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for no gain to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+43
70.6%
Travis Homer run for 43 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
72.8%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+25
72.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 25 yds to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
72.5%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd to the Duke 11Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+5
72.2%
Rosier, Malik pass incomplete to Blades Jr., Al, PENALTY DUKE roughing passer (Jordan, Drew) 5 yards to the DUKE6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
78.7%
Travis Homer run for 6 yds for a TD Timeout MIAMI FL, clock 07:26 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1826% → 25%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.5%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
75.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
74.9%
Austin Parker punt for 52 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:5769% → 68%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
69.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+19
68.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 19 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
69.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Brevin Jordan) to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
70.1%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+3
69.9%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
69.5%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
68.3%
Jack Spicer punt for 34 yds, downed at the Duke 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1627% → 24%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
73.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 2 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
73.5%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-8
73.9%
Daniel Jones sacked by Gerald Willis III for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Austin Parker punt for 53 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for no gain to the MiaFl 25 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the MiaFl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:4070% → 71%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
69.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+20
69.9%
Malik Rosier run for 20 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
70.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4776% → 75%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
76.4%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+3
76.0%
Malik Rosier run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
75.2%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 3
OWN 27
-3
74.5%
Jack Spicer punt for 40 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 30 T.J. Rahming fumbled, recovered by Duke T.J. RahmingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:4526% → 26%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.7%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+24
74.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Jake Bobo for 24 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
70.7%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+9
70.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 9 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
69.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
69.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
71.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
73.9%
Daniel Jones punt for 25 yds, downed at the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3075% → 75%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
75.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+1
75.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 12 DeeJay Dallas fumbled, forced by Derrick Tangelo, recovered by Duke Ben HumphreysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4831% → 31%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
68.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
68.9%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
70.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
68.9%
Collin Wareham 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 5:2471% → 70%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
70.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 9 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
72.2%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
70.7%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+22
70.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 22 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
73.6%
Travis Homer run for 7 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+8
73.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 8 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
74.2%
Malik Rosier sacked by Axel Nyembwe for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 16
OPP 34
-1
72.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+10
70.0%
Malik Rosier run for 10 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
69.9%
Bubba Baxa 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Joe Giles-HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1233% → 64%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
66.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+16
64.4%
Daniel Jones run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
63.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+15
62.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for no gain to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mike Smith) to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
61.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Keyston Fuller for 7 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
61.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+12
62.6%
Deon Jackson pass complete to Daniel Helm for 12 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
60.7%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Daniel Helm for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3345% → 41%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
44.7%
Malik Rosier run for no gain to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
42.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
41.1%
Jack Spicer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3463% → 62%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
37.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+14
36.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 14 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
35.1%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
35.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+7
35.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 3
OPP 32
-6
37.8%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Jaquan Johnson return for 9 yds to the MiaFl 22 DUKE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
47.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for a loss of 4 yards DeeJay Dallas fumbled, recovered by Duke Ben HumphreysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1766% → 62%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
34.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
34.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
34.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
38.5%
Austin Parker punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1441% → 38%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
41.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
40.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Travis Homer MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 10
OWN 7
0
39.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 10
OWN 7
0
37.6%
Jack Spicer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the MiaFl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28FG
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:0468% → 79%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
31.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 21 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
29.9%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
29.0%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+3
29.4%
Johnathan Lloyd run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+33
20.7%
Collin Wareham 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:3525% → 23%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Darrell LanghamSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
23.2%
Jack Spicer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 30PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:0580% → 90%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
20.4%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+14
17.4%
Deon Jackson run for 14 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
14.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 9 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
12.1%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
12.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
10.4%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
9.9%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
9.8%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
10.3%
Austin Parker punt for 31 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 31Uncategorized
19 plays · 59 yds · 3:5414% → 5%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
13.7%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 11
OWN 12
0
13.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+8
11.3%
N'Kosi Perry run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 3
OWN 20
+13
9.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 13 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
9.2%
Travis Homer run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
9.8%
Travis Homer run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 3
50
+2
11.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
10.5%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
9.5%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Derrick Tangelo for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+19
5.5%
Travis Homer run for 19 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
8.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
8.7%
N'Kosi Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+23
5.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 23 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
7.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Lawrence Cager) to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 25
OPP 28
0
5.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 25
OPP 28
0
5.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:18
Quentin Harris pass complete to Daniel Helm for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
-24.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:20
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd
-12.9
FG · Q4 9:14
Collin Wareham 33 yd FG GOOD
-8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com