2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreLOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:19 · Will Spiers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dez Fitzpatrick at the Lvile 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 3:16: Blanton Creque 25 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:56: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 11 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:42: Jawon Pass pass intercepted for a TD Isaiah Simmons return for 27 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:30: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 12:12LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 3:16LOU 4th & 5 at CLEM 8, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call2.2%90% to makePunt1.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 7:41LOU 4th & 11 at midfield, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 6:19CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 11, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%average punt
- Q2 4:09LOU 4th & 5 at CLEM 33, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.4%42% to convertField goal2.3%−<0.149% to makePunt2.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:59LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 22, down 25Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 11:26LOU 4th & 21 at LOU 25, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 6:28LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 27, down 46Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 2:15LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 24, down 53Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:34LOU 4th & 15 at CLEM 36, down 61Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call-0.0%−<0.117% to convertField goal0.0%42% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:51LOU 4th & 4 at CLEM 4, down 61Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%40% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.193% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 10 of 10LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:45CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 12:02CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:42CLEM Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:30CLEM Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:15CLEM Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:58CLEM Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:50CLEM Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:52CLEM Touchdown, up 60 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:42LOU Touchdown, down 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:52CLEM Touchdown, up 60 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1099% → 99%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 6 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+50
99.0%
Travis Etienne run for 35 yds to the CLEMSON 34 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
99.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 9 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
98.9%
Jawon Pass sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Mason King punt for 45 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for no gain to the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD1 play · 70 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4FG18 plays · 73 yds · 8:061% → 2%
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+17
98.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 17 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
98.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
98.8%
Jawon Pass sacked by Kendall Joseph for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+12
98.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for 12 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
98.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for 7 yds to the Clem 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1498% → 99%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.3%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Higgins, Tee, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference 15 yards to the CLEMSON40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
98.3%
Trevor Lawrence run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 36 Trevor Lawrence fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+6
98.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Derion Kendrick for 6 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
98.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 11 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6INT TD8 plays · -1 yds · 3:002% → 2%
Q2 13:56
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+11
98.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
98.4%
Jawon Pass sacked by J.D. Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 26 Jawon Pass fumbled, recovered by LvileSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 24
OWN 16
+27
98.5%
Jawon Pass pass intercepted for a TD Isaiah Simmons return for 27 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 3:532% → 2%
Q2 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
98.0%
Wilson, Colin rush for 1 yard to the LOUISVILLE29, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+23
97.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 23 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 11
50
0
98.2%
Mason King punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0898% → 98%
Q2 7:06
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-5
98.1%
Lawrence, Trevor pass complete to Galloway, Braden for 7 yards to the CLEMSON23, PENALTY CLEMSON illegal formation 5 yards to the CLEMSON11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
98.4%
Will Spiers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dez Fitzpatrick at the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9DOWNS7 plays · 16 yds · 1:552% → 2%
Q2 4:09
4TH & 5
OPP 33
-6
98.1%
Jawon Pass sacked by Kendall Joseph for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass intercepted Anthony Johnson return for no gain to the Lvile 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:562% → 2%
Q2 2:59
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
98.2%
Mason King punt for 38 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for no gain to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD8 plays · 60 yds · 2:1099% → 100%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 5 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
99.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 4 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Colin Wilson for 2 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 3:150% → 0%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 4 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-9
99.7%
Jawon Pass sacked by Christian Wilkins for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 21
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Mason King punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD4 plays · 58 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 15 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.8%
Jawon Pass pass intercepted Tanner Muse return for 25 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD3 plays · 9 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
LOUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q3 8:04
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+7
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 7 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-10
99.9%
Wilson, Colin rush for no gain to the LOUISVILLE30, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 7 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Mason King punt for 35 yds for a 1ST down , Amari Rodgers returns for no gain to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD7 plays · 47 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q3 3:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Spence KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q3 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-6
99.9%
Jawon Pass sacked by Chad Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+18
99.9%
Mason King punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Will Swinney at the CLEMSON 43 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21FUMBLE1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
99.9%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 26 Chase Brice fumbled, forced by Justin Marshall, recovered by Lvile Amonte Caban , return for 30 yds to the Clem 26 Amonte Caban fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22TD1 play · 60 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Justyn Ross for 15 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23TD3 plays · 66 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q3 0:15
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Diondre Overton for 7 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q4 12:48
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+41
100.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 41 yds to the Clem 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
LOUDrive 26DOWNS15 plays · 75 yds · 4:410% → 0%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+29
100.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+18
100.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 18 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 15
OPP 36
+27
100.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 27 yds to the Clem 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
100.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Devante Peete for 6 yds to the Clem 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27Uncategorized8 plays · 73 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:30
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 14:56
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 11 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)
+0.5
FG · Q1 3:16
Blanton Creque 25 yd FG GOOD
-0.2